So, Trudeau declared war on his people who simply want to live like free people after 2 years of "emergency" despotism. To be fair, the petty despots really like being despots. Will Canadian police wage war on their neighbors? For leaders who hate them for being police?
Yeah: "In time covid19 will become known more as the covid19 panic rather than a major killer like the Spanish Flu." But it has been a good test run for a deadly version, eh?
If you'd told me a year ago that Stafford would be in the Super Bowl this year and win it, I'd have said that the Lions obviously traded him.
Science! advanced so an anti-Covid force field around the LA stadium in the middle of a Xi Jinping Flu locked-down California Hellscape let Super Bowl attendees frolic mask-less.
In the unlikely case the Russian fleet sorties past Norway into the Atlantic, Norway is ready.
Because China: " In southeast Asia, Indonesia has embarked on a rebuilding and replacement plan for its navy that will spend $125 billion over the next 25 years."
In many posts in many ways I've expressed confusion about what Russia is doing massing troops on the border with Ukraine. Much of Russia's influence is based on a bluff that its military is as good as tiny fractions of it are. I've been noting that for a couple decades. Russia is a regional military power with continents-spanning defense needs. Recent modernization has not fixed Russia's problem. Going to war would expose that facade. Only limited actions--in time or scope--against weaker foes are capable of being portrayed as glorious examples of Russian military prowess. Or is this crisis as simple as driving up energy prices?
So how's the Syrian multiwar going? Hah! I've been calling it a "multi-war" for ages instead of a "civil war" because it is so complicated. Anyway, it isn't over. But Iran is struggling to hold its positions.
Via Instapundit, will we get justice at long last for the Russia collusion hoax?
Sending anything less than armored brigades means America doesn't expect war over Ukraine. It's about claiming Biden "stopped" Putin from invading. Which means we don't think Putin will invade.
The media elites really do think the peasants are revolting: "the legacy media haven’t just abandoned the working class, they’ve embraced full-on snobbery."
The Russia-Trump investigation was the insurrection against the government. Via Instapundit. And in 2020 the bureaucracy-media-Democratic axis put a meat sack into the White House. It was nice having rule of law while it lasted. "Bad luck" will start hitting us at a higher rate. Will Hillary be the no-longer-useful fall gal in the Russia-Trump collusion hoax/conspiracy to protect the axis?
I've noted the unusual attention American border security has given me. I finally passed the demographic threat zone a few years ago. But TSA is on the job! I passed through the body scan at the airport recently and was pulled aside. There was a large block on the screen outlining my crotch area on the side I "dress on". The TSA guy asked me if I had anything in my pockets. I said "No," and after the comma I'd mentally inserted, I pondered adding, "that's all me." But sanity won out even though I didn't intend on saying one of those words like "bomb" or "explosives" that would earn me a beating with night sticks. So in a fraction of a second I placed a period and said no more. The hand search found no bomb, naturally. The guy then swabbed my hands and a quick insertion of the paper into a nearby machine told them I did not have explosives residue there. Thank God my hands weren't examined with a black light. Just sayin'. Anyway ... no underwear bomb spoiled a flight. And I've still got that "threat" vibe that frightens men and attracts women. Which is nice.
Given how today's conspiracy theory ridiculed by our media in lockstep is next month's proven fact, I hereby apologize to all the Kennedy assassination conspiracy theorists I've poked fun at.
Say, why don't leftists cancel communist-run China for its obvious racism? Oh, and their racism breeds a dangerous sense of superiority. Have a super sparkly day.
Does Russia's naval build up in the Black Sea--combined with its massing of troops heavily weighted to the Crimea-Donbas region--mean any Russian military action would be centered on the Sea of Azov?
So why hasn't Biden even nominated an ambassador to Ukraine?
Iraq wants French weapons and Russian tanks. It is safer to be a customer of an enemy and somebody else who isn't America, given our decision to skedaddle from Iraq in 2011 and from Afghanistan in 2021.
Thank goodness the "adults" are back in charge of American foreign policy.
Island helping is superior to island hopping, given China's growing power.
Given the speed that conspiracy theories become accepted fact these days, I'll just ask what the Hell happened in Pennsylvania in 2020? That state always seemed like the place most likely to have been stolen for Biden in 2020. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia has attack options in Ukraine. But while Russia can strike Ukraine, Russia can't kill Ukraine. Like I said, if you start to take Ukraine, take Ukraine. And Russia would if it could.
What the Hell is happening in Minneapolis these days? No riots to see. Move along. But hey, if the city's voters accept this, who am I to object? Via Instapundit.
Cyber war can escalate to real war. Well, sure.
Russia ordered China to intervene in the Korean War. And suffered heavily while Russia just watched. At what point is Chinese dominance of Russia high enough to order Russia to wage war on NATO?
Deploying Marine anti-ship detachments will have a short life if not protected from Chinese aerial attack: "The Marine Corps activated its inaugural littoral anti-air battalion Friday in Hawaii[.]"
Wag the dog, muzzle the dog? Via Instapundit. I've speculated that Biden is acting tough because he thinks Russia won't invade Ukraine. And PM Johnson wants Britain to have post-Brexit credit in Europe. What might they give Putin to get that "victory"?
Just let the corruption happen. Lie back and think of saving the planet.
Wealthy Europeans couldn't sustain a war on Libya. And even America was running out of ammunition in the war on terror. But Russia will do better if it invades Ukraine in a major offensive?
Is Putin a strategic master or strategic failure? I respect anyone with nukes. But I side with the strategic failure conclusion. Who is anti-Russian, indeed?
Doh! Seriously? This didn't occur to me? "Vladimir Poutine! It was right there in front of me and I didn’t see it. Dammit." I like poutine!
Oh FFS. We're in moron territory now. NATO didn't give us the Russia-China pact. One, the Russia-China "pact" is one of convenience not allegiance. And two, Russia's ah, ... alignment ..., with China gave us NATO-Russian hostility and NATO's resurgence.
The solution to the aftermath of an Israeli strike campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities is regime change and the overthrow of the hated mullah regime. And of course, make sure the strike works.
Drones with microwave weapons to shoot down drones. My drone combat air patrol idea raised in Army magazine advances. I didn't see the beam weapon, though.
Can we get a mobile and secure battlefield internet? That's vital for optionally or partially manned vehicles. I examined the latter in Infantry magazine.
At least the left is open about its hatred of freedom now.
While Iraq's people have increasingly turned against Iran, (via Instapundit) Iran is undermining Iraqi military forces. I knew about the militias. I thought the battle to rein them in was ongoing. Now the Iraqis need to purge the pro-Iran elements in the armed services, too? We need to battle Iran in Iraq.
I'm working on grokking the rules. Live dog on roof rack? Evil. Cooked dog on plate? Culturally sensitive! Dead dog on doorstep (via Instapundit)? Charming anecdote! I'm sensing the pattern.
Americans fleeing Ukraine into Poland? Show proof of Covid vaccination. Illegal migrants crossing the southern American border? Welcome to America! Well that's just science, right?
It drives me nuts that people say the Russia-Ukraine dispute is "complicated." Sure it is. But the reality today is simple--Putin wants to conquer Ukraine, an independent country. Nuance justifies abandoning people to a predator.
Good enough for communist work: "China has resumed food shipments via railroad and trucks in an effort to prevent a government collapse in North Korea and a flood of desperate North Korean refugees seeking salvation in China." For now.
Xi must be so proud of Trudeau. Leftists have long said tyranny is descending on America. Who had it landing on Canada? Polite fascists are still fascists.
And yet America is discharging troops who don't want the vaccination despite the even weaker Omicron variant: "Fears that covid19 would disrupt military operations or even reduce the number of recruits proved wrong. In most countries it was all about the age and health of the average soldier. The troops tend to be younger and healthier than the population as a whole."
Could stockpiling a flu virus be a poor-man's nuke to undermine a threat? "The Spanish Flu was so devastating for military organizations that it was believed that if the Spanish Flu had arrived a year or two earlier, it might have caused World War I to end differently, with a ceasefire or armistice rather than the outright defeat of Germany." It would be tricky, of course.
I haven't yet read our new Indo-Pacific strategy document. But I assume the Fuck-Up Fairy wrote it.
The phases of war: intelligence, defeating the enemy military, occupying territory, and convincing the enemy they lost. What if Russia just wants the first two with a temporary third phase? It doesn't make sense for Russia to initiate war. But what about a punitive mission?
If this is what Seattle voters want--and they keep voting for it--who am I to object for them?
There is bipartisan consensus as America continues to decouple its economy from Chinese money. Good. Maybe our colleges and politicians will, too. Tip to Instapundit.
Different (American) views on what Putin wants in his Ukraine crisis.
Hillary! has gotten away with everything so far in her life. As has her husband. So the odds of her continuing to get away with her slimy crimes are good, sad to say. I hope I'm wrong.
The Saudis won't increase oil production to help U.S. gas prices. Can you blame them? Biden blessed the Houthi who bomb Saudi cities and is trying to get a nuclear deal that will enable Iranian nukes and fund Iranian terror.
I have to say that sending F-22s to act as sensors to detect Houthi missile launch preparation seems like overkill for one of our few high-end fighters. Unless their real mission is across the Gulf over Iran.
Yeah, I'm not shocked that another "green" energy scheme is worse for the environment.
Fucking Russians. Are they trying to start a war with America through a deadly accident?
China snatches the submarine pebble from Russia's hand.
Weaponized corruption. It threatens America. But I have the most immediate worry about Ukraine. And as that initial article explains, American corruption has affected Ukraine.
The pandemic has pushed me to hate teacher unions with white hot fury. They need to be broken. Whether by law or technology.
Clinton, collusion, and coup. Trump was right. Heads should roll. Lock her up. I fear the plotters will get away with this. Unless Democrats/media want her to be the scapegoat.
Leftists have been warning about the potential for violence in the Canadian trucker protests. Say, here it is!
The U.S. isn't ready for a peer fight in Europe. True enough. Although it is getting better. But I suspect Russia is less ready. We see our problems more easily.
France is getting out of Mali. The local rulers are more interested in a musical chairs game in the palace to loot the treasury than in fighting jihadis. Sad to say, France has limits in getting around that.
Russia invasion options and Western options to help Ukraine. A new lend-lease program is mentioned. I agree.
After the Anschluss, Belarus asks "how high?" even before Putin tells Lukashenko to jump: "Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday his country could host nuclear weapons if it faces any external threats[.]"
I mentioned that the Philippines will buy the BrahMos missile. More on the missile deal. Could it keep China away by threatening a major Chinese warship? It need a kill web to detect and target ships.
NATO will add battlegroups to other members, including Romania. Four of the battalion-sized forces already stretch from Estonia to Poland.
The Russians are stupid if they invade Ukraine. Russia will provoke NATO hostility. Russia will need to fortify and defend its new western border. So Russia can't possibly shift forces east to defend its Far East from China. Which means Russia is China's vassal. The Fuck-Up Fairy has been busy in Russia.
American SFAB helps small NATO armies fight and survive outnumbered under a Russian onslaught.
Well that's just effing great: "The U.S. Navy attack submarine force inventory is at a low, and maintenance backlogs are making it harder to conduct important development work[.]"
This is ominous: "The leader of Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah group said for the first time on Wednesday that it has the ability within Lebanon to convert thousands of rockets into precision missiles and to produce drones." That overwhelms Iron Dome and leaves one answer.
The American who renounced her American citizenship to compete--and fail--for China in the Genocide Olympics said, "I am an Olympian; no one can take that away from me." How cute. China can unperson her on a whim. And force her to admit on TV that she does not, in fact, exist.
How is it possible to think it isn't massively racist to define the acceptable views minorities may have? Yet that's what the left does every day while posing as anti-racists. To Hell with those racist bastards.
I'm just shocked that they are even pretending to fight inflation. Fingers crossed. Inflation destroys people in the middle like me. A life of work can be wiped out in a shockingly short time. The poor have little to lose and will have their safety net maintained. The rich have the opportunities to profit even in inflationary times.
To Hell with our media "news" people. They can learn to code or dance on poles, for all I care.
If Putin starts a war, it will be interesting to see if oligarchs worried about their wealth engineer mobs to string Putin up by his heels from a Moscow lamp post.
I'll repeat that I would not go to war with Russia over Ukraine in the current crisis. But I would arm Ukraine and provide logistics and targeting assistance to send body bags back to Moscow.
I hope Seattle residents enjoy what they voted for. I just can't care about them.
I saw a podcast saying that the Russians could not shift natural gas to Germany from the Nordstream II pipeline to China. Gas to the two come from different fields far apart and cannot be shifted.
I have hope that polling shows voters think Hillary!gate is worse than Watergate. Perhaps justice will prevail. Tip to Instapundit.
So, Iran-backed Hamas has been trying to carry out a terrorist attack in the Philippines. Don't tell me jihadis target us because of what we have done.
Huh: "Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the U.S. Navy has been experiencing a larger number of warship captains and other senior naval commanders getting relieved. ... When you have more ineffective officers, that has an impact on the quality of the troops." I wonder what could be happening to our Navy leadership?
Would a US-Russia agreement on intermediate-range missiles simply address deployment and free both to focus on China? Makes sense to me. But Putin may be lying about his NATO missile concern or may be too paranoid to trust America.
If we'd consider Ukraine the front line for Romania and Bulgaria, NATO wouldn't need to bolster forces in those NATO countries. If Russia insists Ukraine is their buffer, we can return the favor.
Iran continues to deny it even has a nuclear weapons program. Obama agreed to the 2015 agreement even though Iran denied having a nuclear weapons program that the deal purportedly stopped.
Putin has forfeited strategic and perhaps operational surprise with his long mobilization to attack Ukraine. But he could gain tactical surprise by striking at a time, place, or method unexpected. Repeated American warnings of imminent attack help Putin achieve that. Tip to Instapundit.
The British intend to maintain a presence in the Indo-Pacific with small ships backed by occasional carrier task force visits. That's the plan.
Odessa is a logical target for Russian aggression against Ukraine. But would it be a port too far--and too large to pacify? Russian amphibious operations traditionally have directly supported land offensives--not getting relieved by overland forces.
Is this a sign that Russian-Chinese relations are close? "[There] are fewer forces on Russia’s border with China and Mongolia than at any point in the past 100 years." Or is China lulling Russia to go to war before Russia can correct that force level issue?
What Canada's government is doing to the protesting truckers is evil--notwithstanding Trudeau's lies that he is battling Nazis and Confederate sympathizers. Tip to Instapundit.
I've been waiting for Peak Stupid for a long time. So I'll need more than this to agree.
The Left used to support the peasants revolting. Now the left just thinks the peasants are revolting. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
I want the government to be a "big, waddling, sluggish beast." What I don't want is people to entrust the government with responsibilities beyond narrow areas.
Decades ago I was fine with proposals to publicly identify donors to political causes. That would be helpful in evaluating the group getting donations, I thought. I never imagined such information would be used in America to attack donors. We've seen it here. And in Canada, which American Democrats are cheering on. If I haven't publicly reversed my old view, I do it now. And block foreign donations who get more privacy than Americans now, apparently.
You'd think that funneling Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine would be a high American priority. Apparently not. Tip to Instapundit.
Putin meets with Lukashenko. Which openly makes it seem like Russia might attack Ukraine through Belarus. I worry about different threats from Belarus territory.
Well of course he will: "Russia's Ministry of Defense announced Friday it would hold military
drills with its strategic nuclear forces that will be personally
supervised by President Vladimir Putin[.]" The image must be maintained.
I have opposed discharging troops for refusing the Covid-19 vaccine because they are required to obey lawful orders and I didn't think that was settled. Perhaps it will be, at least in one narrow area.
I'm not sure why Russia would need to engineer a reason to invade Ukraine when Russians can just lie. Russia denied invading Ukraine in 2014, after all. Putin will just say Ukraine did something.
It is not a defense pact, however: "The Ukrainian government announced a new security pact with the U.K. and Poland Feb. 17, as the day’s developments upped the ante yet again in the standoff with Russia."
Captain Obvious reports: "With fewer airstrikes and less U.S. military involvement on the ground, there are signs of a resurgence of the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab militants in Somalia[.]" Well, yeah.
Remember, as any journalism school will teach you, it isn't "news" if it reflects badly on Democrats. Glad I could clear that up.
Democrats are surely orgasmic that Canadian police are arresting "Nazi siege" leaders from the trucker protest in Ottawa (via Treacher). Democrats were upset when Trump killed Iranian terror-master Soleimani, if you want a contrast. Thank God they have ways to tell if you are a Nazi.
But the 40% with no real career feel their diploma gives them the authority to order the high school grads around: "Only 60 percent of students who enroll in college will earn more 10 years later than workers with only a high school diploma[.]" Via Instapundit.
Yet Democrats still call it an insurrection.
I'm just relieved the police didn't use whips. Tip to Instapundit.
No! Way! Tip to Instapundit.
Canadian truckers should withdraw from positions in Ottawa and set up
elsewhere. Be water, as the Hong Kong protesters practiced. It isn't
retreating. It's fighting somewhere else.
I'm worried something will happen and paranoid Russians will assume America did it to them. Via Instapundit.
If Russia invades Ukraine and it somehow leads to war with NATO, I don't assume China goes to war at Russia's side. I could totally see China supplying Russia yet telling Russia the PLA is moving into Russia's Far East Pacific regions--which Russia took from China in the 19th century--for the duration of the war to "protect" them from American and Japanese attacks. Good luck to Russia on getting China to leave.
Strategypage looks at North Korean hacking and P4x's cyber counterattack against North Korea. My thoughts here.
Yeah:
This isn't the first time China has done this: "The Australian Defense Department said that a Chinese navy ship fired a laser at one of its surveillance aircraft, putting the lives of the crew in danger."
Poland will buy 250 Abrams tanks, and supporting vehicles. These will replace old Soviet-based tanks. Poland's excellent German-built Leopard II tanks will remain.
Russian claims that Ukraine is planning to attack Russian-occupied Donbas is just bizarre. I doubt Ukraine wants the pro-Russian wreck of a region now. But if Ukraine did want it, it would be a liberation of territory Russia illegally captured.
Mask mandates seem to have had little effect. Via instapundit. Sure. But that doesn't mean wearing masks had little effect. Mandates may have little effect on behavior. Masks do work depending on type, threat environment, time in that environment, and user skill. Early on I would have worn a mask regardless of a requirement. Just as I don't now--except where required when I can't avoid it--despite recommendations.
I can't believe China wants Russia to wage war on Ukraine. Sure, China may like a U.S.-Russian war. But something less? That may get even Germany to arm up. And every military asset Europe raises to confront Russia frees Americans to face China in Asia.
I don't think we need a state of national emergency for the Xi Jinping Flu--which Biden extended--any more. But my perspective as one who gets ordered about is different from those doing the ordering, I guess.
An analyst I respect said Russia could absolutely crush Ukraine. I guess I agree. But I don't know if it would be a lopsided crushing or a high-cost crushing. And I don't know if Russian troops are willing to die against tough Ukrainian defenders--which I also don't know enough to judge. It just doesn't make sense to me for Russia to make the effort. But Lord knows what I don't see that might make war perfectly rational from Putin's perspective. On the other hand, the old advice of "if you strike a king, kill him" applies. A small harm to Ukraine, while safer for Russia, just solidifies Ukraine's hate for Russia. But perhaps that ship sailed over the last 8 years, anyway. We'll see if Russia is pushing their bluff to the edge, or not.
This is just a long way of saying Russia has an advantage in a short war based on initiative and geography. NATO can eventually mobilize superior power to roll back Russian gains. Russia may count on the threat of nukes to hold their gains despite that.
Bonus. I think it is the end of the line:
Japan is moving closer to America to warn off China and North Korea.
I'm reasonably sure that Biden did more economic damage to Canada by canceling the Keystone XL pipeline than the Freedom Convoy truckers inflicted.
I'm so old I remember when liberals said "liberal minded" was the same as "open minded" tolerance of differences. Tip to Instapundit.
I am pleased that the Biden administration refers to a "further invasion" of Ukraine given that so many analysts seem to ignore Russia's 2014 invasions and conquests.
There goes Canada's reputation for being polite. I used to vacation in Canada. I don't know if I can again in good conscience while Trudeau wields power. Power a majority of Canadians approve of. Tip to Instapundit.
I still think Ukraine should present Russia with a bill for renting Crimea for the last 8 years. And a bill of sale for Russian-occupied Donbas which Ukraine probably doesn't want back at this point.
Thanks Germany! "German engine manufacturer MTU builds diesel engines for ships and is now in trouble because some of their engines have been used in Chinese Type 53D destroyers and Type 39 diesel-electric submarines."
Canceling the bank accounts and credit cards of Canadian protesters or donors is basically government subcontracting the ruination of those who dissent from the government to banks. How do they pay bills? How do they get paid? Shameful.
That's what Xi says. Tip to Instapundit.
So NATO should just formally abandon Ukraine's path to membership to avoid war with Russia because we know Ukraine won't ever be admitted? That won't work. If Ukraine makes enough progress on military modernization and rule of law to qualify for NATO, Ukraine won't need to join NATO.
Sure, I don't rule out that Russia might conquer Ukraine. Russia might be better than I think. Ukraine might not have the will to fight I think. The West might not support Ukrainian resistance as I think. If Russia wins, NATO needs more power and it must move east in force. But to be fair, Russia in Syria only wanted to secure the Assad heartland as a buffer for a naval and air base--not secure all of Syria which is not under Assad's control to this day. And for God's sake, Trump has nothing to do with strained American-European ties. The threat of a hanging by Russia will focus Europe--and even the Turks.
Good times. Good times:
I wonder what the media will say if a future conservative Canadian government uses the precedent Trudeau set--against groups the left loves? I hope conservatives instead make sure nobody can abuse dissidents as Trudeau has. But that's not the way to bet these days, is it?
I see, it is Ukraine's fault that Russia might invade. If only Ukraine wouldn't walk around dressed like a slut seek to join the West through the EU and NATO, there'd be no problem. I'll never fathom nuance.
The United States and Britain convinced Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons by promising to maintain Ukraine's territorial integrity and independence against Russian threats. We owe it to Ukraine to give them the means to defeat Russia. Anybody who takes the United Nations seriously must, too.
Fingers crossed this deters Russia. If Russia backs down, I won't claim our military intelligence is untrustworthy because Russia didn't invade. Although (via Instapundit) American media fluffing about that is another matter.
We're overdue for the passing of Soviet ideas in Russia, aren't we? Well, nobody is forcing Russians to pivot away from grievance and paranoia with something like de-Nazification. That's the price of no post-Cold War occupation of the defeated USSR.
Say, actual terrorism and economic damage in Canada. I await Trudeau's righteous wrath.
I still don't know what Russia will try to achieve. Invasions with varying extents of combat and conquest? A punitive expedition that destroys and withdraws? Or will Russia station troops in Belarus and annex Russian-occupied Donbas, with no actual military action contemplated?
Well: "One of the enduring images of the Ukraine crisis has been Russian President Vladimir Putin hosting a revolving door of Western leaders at the other end of a giant marble table." Putin's self-esteem issues are the world's problem now.
I'm going to try to compile next week's data dump without posting anything about domestic politics. But it will be tough with Hillary!gate still pushing our decent into banana republic status. Sadly the Democratic/media tactic of denying a Democrat's crime, delaying discovery of proof, and then dismissing the new discovery as "old news" may still work. "Deny, Delay, Dismiss." And some things on media bias, rule of law, the pandemic, and the economy fall into a gray area. And really piss me off. This will be difficult if I try to surf the gray area.
There should not be a Trump exception to Constitutionally protected freedom of speech. It shouldn't survive appeal. For now. Tip to Instapundit. Sigh. Avoiding domestic issues will be tough.
