Bolstered by lies of good intentions and threats to anyone who intervenes to stop him, Putin has ordered an invasion of Ukraine.
The map above shows the positions of Russian troops at the start outside of Russia. Russian troops are also in positions in Russia itself, of course. [ADDED NOTE: Russian pre-war troops deployments are heavily weighted to the south near and in Russian-occupied Crimea and eastern Donbas.]
I am still shocked that Russia would risk a major war, as it is being called. A smaller attack is less risky to Russia's fragile military.
So far the situation is unclear. Other than reports of bombings, which don't appear to be large scale, there is little to report even ten hours after the invasion.
NATO is responding with defensive moves within NATO--not intervening.
I disregard Putin's threats to others about intervening. He has enough on his plate with Ukraine.
It's on Ukraine now to fight. If they can preserve their army and bleed the Russians, Putin can be stopped. Will Ukrainians fight in this war? Will Russians fight? The Russians think they are in a "special military operation." When they find it is war will they die for Putin? Those are the big questions.
More to follow in updates.
UPDATE: Set aside the nuance. Russia is the predator and Ukraine the victim.
UPDATE: Ukraine is weaker than Russia. No doubt. Although a will to resist can be a force multiplier if that becomes evident. Especially if that contrasts to potential Russian unwillingness to fight. If those qualities are reversed, Russia will achieve its conventional military objectives quickly.
But Russia has few decent troops than are already deployed around Ukraine. Russia has had to scrape up ground troops from their far-flung military. Little of military use--other than quiet occupation duty--can be left to sustain the war.
Also, Russia won't have a lot of high-tech ammunition. Which may explain the apparent sparseness of the bombardments so far. What happens when it runs out?
UPDATE: I'd be happy if early Ukrainian reports of shooting down Russian planes and helicopters are accurate. But Ukraine is likely bolstering domestic will to resist. I'll wait for Western confirmation.
UPDATE: While NATO is not fighting Russia, all those forces from both sides at sea and in the air, and on the ground could accidentally clash. Which Russia could misinterpret as the start of a bigger war. Indeed, if a Russian plane crashes, ship has a collision with a sea rock, or sub disappears--at any place in the world--Putin's paranoia could easily assume NATO has attacked. Adjust your pucker factor accordingly.
UPDATE: Ukrainians report shallow penetrations (3 miles) of Ukrainian territory at "Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, and, possibly in other areas." Chernikov is northeast of Kiev on the east side of the Dnepr River; and Kharkiv (Kharkov) is in the east bordering Russia.
UPDATE: Did Russian airmobile forces land at Antonov airport northwest of Kiev's suburbs? That is on the west side of the Dnepr River. Can Russian forces from Belarus advance through the poor terrain there to link up?
UPDATE: Ukrainians are counterattacking at Antonov Airport. Video of Russians.
UPDATE: Map of missile strikes:
I assume some of the attacks are designed to distract as to objectives and to pin Ukrainian troops in place.
UPDATE: There have been reports of Russian troops crossing into Ukraine from Crimea. But that seems sketchy as to scope. Wouldn't Ukraine have heavily fortified that narrow isthmus leading north?
Russia does not seem to have dropped the hammer with major ground assaults at this point.
UPDATE: Related to Antonov Airport, Ukraine reports that Ukraine is defending at Chernobyl, north of Kiev on the west side of the Dnepr near the Belarus border. If Ukraine has enough force in that poor terrain, it could inflict casualties or even stop a link up. But I don't know Ukrainian deployments.
It is possible that Russia is narrowly aiming at Kiev as the primary objective to install a puppet government. This despite the early emphasis on the Donbas region and points south. Too early to tell.
UPDATE: So far no further reports from Crimea or Odessa. Early reports could be feints.
UPDATE: Reports of advances out of Russian-occupied Donbas. But it is unclear if these are old reports repeated.
I think I'll step away from the keyboard for a while. It is early and the scope of the attack is not clear to me.
UPDATE: Ukraine says it is fighting northwest of Crimea. So the neck of Crimea bizarrely was not fortified. That's not good. And northeast at an outlet from Crimea that does seem to be defended.
This is my best guess so far from scattered reports.
UPDATE: This looks like a good updated tracking article from The Telegraph [Link changed]. Note there is no mention of amphibious landings at Odessa, as early reports stated.
UPDATE: Sunset in Ukraine after a day of war. I hope NATO is providing battlefield intelligence to help Ukraine rally to fight the Russian offensive.
UPDATE: The Russian attack northwest out of Crimea secures the water supply to Crimea. Is that the final objective of the thrust?
UPDATE: FFS, the Pentagon is giving estimates of how long it will take Russia to capture Kiev. One, the Pentagon proved in Afghanistan it isn't good at that. Two, making those estimates undermines Ukrainian resistance. And three, the Pentagon should be working hard to help Ukraine resist the offensive aimed at Kiev to make Russia experience a Pyrrhic victory.
Also, the British MOD map tracks my map:
But with more detail about Donbas region. It looks like Russian forces in Donbas sliced through defenders. Unless Ukrainians are bugging out to save their army. Fingers crossed. Correction. I mis-read the map. The arrows are within the existing Russian-occupied Donbas. I still don't know what is happening there.
UPDATE: As I've noted, I think Russia needs a fast victory because of the lack of smart ammunition or decent troops to replace losses or exhausted units. We need to help Ukraine buy time.
UPDATE: Ukraine reports they've retaken Hostomel Airfield (Antonov airport). I hope so.
UPDATE: I saw an analyst note how light the Russian bombardment was. That tracks my impression.
Also, Ukrainians are resisting and slowing the Russian advances on Kiev, Kharkov, and in the Donbas. Only the virtually unresisted Russian thrust from Crimea has worked so far. I'm amazed that isthmus wasn't defended or blocked with obstacles.
Russia still has the edge in weight of numbers.
UPDATE: I've seen mentions that Russia seized two airfields near Kiev. But I think this is a mistake based on the single airfield being known by two names.
UPDATE: And again, let me express my absolute shock that Western "anti-war activists" haven't rushed to Ukraine to be "human shields" against Russia's invasion.
UPDATE: Ah, a second airfield is a target, Boryspil airport southeast of Kiev. But Russia hasn't taken it. Also, Russian frontal assaults in the Donbas have largely failed. More analysis of day one. Ukrainian forces are fighting hard but Russia has plenty of troops uncommitted in the first day's attacks to send into the fight.
UPDATE: While the Russian offensive out of Crimea has taken ground quickly, it will run into a problem. Not many troops were in Crimea. Running up the isthmus they were thick on the ground. Fanning out north of that spreads the units out and will eventually become too thin on the ground to attack. If Russia keeps units concentrated to advance, Ukrainians could infiltrate the theoretical front "line" and hit rear areas and flanks of Russian units.
UPDATE: One last thought for the day. If Russia's plan is a decapitation strike to replace the Ukraine government, why didn't Russia focus everything on taking Kiev from several directions? Why dissipate power with more attacks on Kharkov, the Donbas, and out of Crimea if those would be irrelevant if the Kiev thrust succeeds?
UPDATE (FRIDAY): Heavy Russian casualties. Ukrainians defending Kiev. Ukraine strikes airfield in Russia and knocks out some aircraft on the ground. And as a friend texted, Ukrainians have their Alamo moment to inspire them to fight on: "Russian military ship, go f--- yourself." Thirteen border guards on a small island refused to surrender to the Russian navy and were all killed by shell fire. There is no reason Ukraine should give up if Kiev falls. Make sure Western intelligence, weapons, and supplies continue.
UPDATE: Strategypage describes the Ukrainian counterattack at the airport near Kiev that Russia initially captured; as well as a failed amphibious assault on Odessa. Ukrainians better prepared to resist than Russia expected. But few of Russian troops massed have been committed as yet. Is Putin shocked at economic sanctions?
UPDATE: Once war begins "events" take hold. Putin invaded Ukraine because it is outside of NATO's defensive perimeter. The same was essentially said of South Korea in 1950 which was counted on when USSR-backed North Korea invaded. America under the UN umbrella intervened quickly. Perhaps Russians should reconsider their course of action and string up their strutting Mussolini clone from the nearest lamp post.
UPDATE: It appears that Russia took Hostomel Airfield (Antonov airport) and brought in reinforcements. Does this explain the Russian attack on Kiev rather than an advance from Belarus? Can Ukraine counterattack again or at least put anti-aircraft weapons close enough to deny Russia the ability to reinforce? Or artillery to shell the runway, of course.
UPDATE: Keep in mind that the Russian airborne forces are among the best troops that Russia has. They fight as mechanized ground troops as well as having a paratroop or air assault role.
UPDATE: A BBC map:
If the arrows are more than notional, it looks like the east bank offensive on Kiev is the source of attacks on Kiev, plus airborne forces landed at Hostomel (Gostomel, or Antonov) airport. The attack out of Crimea seems to have stopped. Kharkov is still blocking the Russians. And the Donbas front is still not moving much.
I certainly haven't heard or read much on the morning news for anything outside of Kiev. But that may be a shiny object distorting coverage.
UPDATE: Remember Snake Island!
UPDATE: Kiev districts:
UPDATE: If Ukraine endures this invasion intact, it has earned NATO membership. Although the battle for rule of law is needed to strengthen Ukraine.
UPDATE: Ukraine is offering neutral status to get Russia to stop the war. That might be fine for Ukraine under the circumstances. But Putin demands demilitarization, too. Which just means Ukraine is an easier target for Round 4 of Putin's war on Ukraine.
UPDATE: I am heartened that Ukrainians are blowing bridges to slow down the Russians. That speaks well of their capacity.
UPDATE: The Telegraph reports that Russian troops who took Chernobyl region are 60 miles from Kiev. So I guess the Russians hitting Kiev didn't come from that axis of advance. As always, reporting subject to change from fog of war. Our military surely knows.
UPDATE: Ukraine is arming civilians to defend Kiev. The laws of war allow civilian militias that spring up to defend their homes. They are not unlawful combatants. But I hope they have some type of "uniform" even if it is just a blue and yellow arm band. I don't trust Russia not to simply execute on the spot any such lawful combatants if captured.
UPDATE: Ukraine needs to extend the war to inflict pain on Russia if it hopes to survive as an independent state. So it must preserve its army even at the price of giving up territory. But cities are prime grounds to slow the Russians down and inflict casualties on the Russians.
UPDATE: Okay:
"The capital of Kyiv is critical," said retired U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane, who serves as chairman of the Institute for the Study of War. "Putin’s political objective for this entire military campaign is regime change, and that brings in the capital city of Kyiv because that is the seat of government."
But if Ukraine maintains continuity of government by relocating elements to western Ukraine to be a new seat of government, a Russian capture of Kiev should not be decisive. This shouldn't be "capture the flag" rules.
And two, as I asked before, if Russia is so focused on Kiev, why have the Russians dissipated power with attacks on other parts of the border? Wouldn't it have been better to send those secondary front troops toward Kiev from other directions?
If Kiev ends the war, the rest of Ukraine would fall without the unnecessary attacks and casualties.
UPDATE: The Ukrainians say that 60 Russian BTGs are inside Ukraine. Out of what they say are 90 near Ukraine. That's a lot, if true. And could indicate Russia must go for broke to win fast because it can't sustain a longer war when units in combat are depleted or just tired.
UPDATE: Putin sees Nazis everywhere. I guess 30 million dead didn't do the trick. Russia's military should take Russia's future into their hands and stop Putin before he piles that number higher.
UPDATE: NATO is reinforcing the east. That will increase Russian paranoia. But failure to do so will just increase Russian opportunism. The problem is Putin-led Russia and not NATO.
UPDATE: Russian troops moving on Kiev from north on the west bank of the Dnepr and from the east on the east bank.
UPDATE: An American defense official says the Russian invasion has "lost momentum." That seems true. The Russians are still advancing, but this is a tough fight for Russia and not the liberation from purported Nazis that Putin claimed it would be.
UPDATE: "Thousands of" Russian troops landed west of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. This makes sense. But it makes sense with a major Russian overland offensive from the east.
UPDATE: This seems to be the situation after nightfall in Ukraine, as best as I can tell:
No word if Crimea-based Russian forces are advancing east to support amphibious landing near Mariupol. Or if the Russians are attacking the city from the east.
UPDATE: Shelling in Kiev and sounds of gunfire in western suburbs. Either Russians with night vision gear and skills to fight at night are attacking or conducting recon; or Ukrainian troops or militia are firing at shadows.
UPDATE: Will Russia expand the scope of the war from western Belarus to head south to Lviv?
UPDATE: This is fair: "Russia's invasion, long in the planning, is not going entirely to plan but the odds are not in Ukraine’s favour either." But by inflicting casualties and buying time, Ukraine can hope to make things less worse or even hope for outside events that end Russia's invasion. And by fighting hard, even though defeated this example will keep a fire of resistance alive for the future.
UPDATE: Heard that Russian troops from Crimea are trying to advance east on Mariupol. But Ukrainians are holding.
I don't buy that the non-Kiev assaults are designed to pin Ukrainian units in place. Russian troops just being there would pin most in place. And if Ukraine moved troops to reinforce Kiev, total Russian air supremacy should allow the Russians to destroy the units as they try to move. And once Ukrainian forces are thinned out without fighting, poised Russian units could more easily advance if they wish.
This makes even less sense when you consider that the Russians apparently expected to be in Kiev in the first day. There would not even be a chance for the troops on the rest of the frontier to even get to Kiev before the war was effectively over.
UPDATE: Well that's one way to keep body bags from going back to Russia.
UPDATE: Ukraine said it battered the Russians near Konotop, which is deeper into Ukraine than my arrow pointing west on the map above (near the R in Russia) indicates.
UPDATE: Ukraine and Russia may discuss peace or ceasefire in direct talks. I assume the Russians are insincere.
UPDATE: An assessment of the second day: Russia reinforcing Kiev drive. Russia may not be trying to punch through in the Donbas. And is Russia going to open up a front in western Ukraine? Russia suffering setbacks but has the advantage to grind down Ukraine in the days or weeks ahead. Also, no confirmation at all of an amphibious assault from the Sea of Azov.
UPDATE: Russia says it took Melitopol, on the road from Crimea to Mariupol. Clear evidence of a Russian advance east along the Sea of Azov. That hadn't been clear earlier in the day.
UPDATE: Ukrainians expect the Russians to storm Kiev before dawn.
UPDATE: Shockingly, Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution deploring the war and calling on Russia to get out.
UPDATE: Russia has not had an easy time of the war it started. But it is only two days into the war. Let's not get too caught up in Twitter-time. Russia has the clear edge.
UPDATE: That hurt: "Ukraine has shot down an Il-76 Russian transport plane 20km from Kyiv which was reportedly carrying more than 100 paratroopers ready to launch an assault on the city." It's a start, anyway. If true.
UPDATE (Saturday): I think Ukraine should think about thinning its lines out on the Donbas front. Ukraine has been inflicting casualties. But Russian advances out of Crimea and toward Kiev could cut them off. Ukraine needs to focus a bit on preserving their army. Send some of those Donbas units to deal with other threats.
Ground fighting in Kiev reported.
Is this a sign of divisions within the Russian government?
Ukraine seems to have shot down a second Russian transport plane near Kiev. This appears to be a air assault landing south of Kiev.
The Dutch will send 200 Stinger air defense missiles to Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses seem surprisingly active. But I still think relatively low Russian air activity must be from other reasons.
In a smart move, Ukraine set up a hotline for worried Russian mothers of Russian soldiers.
UPDATE: Situation as of late yesterday:
ISW had reported that a second-line unit took over the gains northwest of Crimea to allow the paratroopers to shift their attack east.
UPDATE: It does not appear that the Russians carried out night attack on Kiev. Perhaps recon was carried out by better forces.
UPDATE: Ukraine says there has been combat near Odessa. I'm not sure if that is confirmed.
UPDATE: I'm seeing nothing on yesterday's report of amphibious landing west of Mariupol; nor anything confirming Odessa landings. With a second-line unit holding gains around Kherson, northwest of Crimea, it seems more like a holding action there for now.
UPDATE: Again, Ukraine should redeploy some of their units from the Donbas front. When it was a local war it made sense to have thick defenses there to keep Russia from nibbling away ground. Now that this is a war for national survival, Ukraine needs their army more than it needs the rest of Donbas. Risks need to be taken somewhere on the ground. I say send some of the Donbas front to deal with the Crimea threat. Luckily the Russians don't seem to operate at night much, so that's a long window of opportunity to move. Perhaps engineers are preparing another series of defensive positions further back just in case?
UPDATE: The flow of written news has slowed. I'm sure from weekend staffing rather than a slow down in the war just in its third day.
UPDATE: I should note that the Crimea front might not be as bad as it looks. As I noted early on, an advance out of Crimea will spread out the forces once packed into Crimea, dissipating their offensive power. It would be smart for Russia to reinforce that success, of course. Are the Russians moving more troops to Crimea to do that? We know Russia added forces to the Kiev front after finding the pace of advance too slow.
We'll see if Ukraine's ability to hold the lines exceeds Russian willingness to suffer casualties.
To be clear, while I'm trying to accurately assess the war, I want Ukraine to win and I want Russia to lose clearly. So you know where I'm coming from if my past writings aren't clear, are forgotten, or not known.
Belarus is starting to get caught up in the blowback from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As well it should be given its willing role as Russia's vassal state.
UPDATE: Ukrainian claims of inflicting losses on Russia are no doubt inflated. But on the other hand, "Russian military spokesperson Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov claimed on Saturday that Moscow had suffered no casualties during the invasion."
UPDATE: Turkey announced it will close the Turkish straits to Russian warships.
UPDATE: What the Hell is wrong with our government? Are we trying to undermine Ukrainian will to resist Russia? Why would we offer Zelensky a figurative helicopter ride from the roof of our Kiev embassy? "The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride," Zelenskyy responded, to his credit.
UPDATE: As the Russians face heavy Ukrainian resistance contrary to their expectations, recall that when Russia invaded Finland in 1939 the Russian army had orders not to violate Swedish neutrality. That was overly optimistic. Finland savaged the Russians. But three months later the Finns had to seek peace at the price of much territory. Yet Finland kept their independence. Even through the Cold War, though they stayed quiet. Today Finland is free and contemplates membership in NATO. Ukraine doesn't have the terrain that Finland had to its advantage. But the example should show resistance is not futile.
UPDATE: Turkey says it has not decided to close its straits to Russian warships. It is discussing the issue. I was a little surprised at the blanket ban given Russia has the right to return ships to Black Sea home ports.
UPDATE: Russia has blocked Twitter for Russian users. The West should try to open a means for Russians to follow the war anyway. Though Russia forbids its broadcasters from calling it a "war."
UPDATE: One problem in following the war is that the Ukrainian ground force deployments are a mystery. Apparently, half of Ukraine's military is in the Donbas. But I thought that was weighted toward para-military units for trench warfare and not the heavier Ukrainian army forces. So I can't judge where surprises might happen. And surely Ukraine, now that it is at war, will do things as it gets more organized. And Russia, too, as it faces obstacles, will do different things, commit reserves, and use means thus far held back. It is only day 3 of the war.
UPDATE: Russia says it was in a pause Friday and will resume its offensive on all fronts today.
UPDATE: The U.S. says Russia has committed half of the combat units massed on the border. That should mean about 60 BTGs. Are these the best available? If so, Russia shouldn't have many decent units left to throw into the battle. In the short run, they could occupy captured areas to let the better units continue the advance--those capable of fighting after losses and exhaustion. Although Ukraine's units will have little rest. It will be tough to rotate units into reserve to rebuild and rest.
UPDATE: It is night in Ukraine. We'll see if Russians fight through the night. Or restrict combat operations to bombardment and recon.
UPDATE: My impression/guess is correct that Russia isn't assaulting Kiev yet. But, "Russia has, however, sent reconnaissance forces into Kyiv, the official said[.]" That's what I figured.
UPDATE: Even if Russia surrounds Kiev, won't Ukraine be able to attack the besiegers from the outside? I just don't know where the army is and if there are reserves available. Reserves are being called up and will take time to organize and send into battle.
UPDATE: Russia is facing world outrage (we'll see if that is significant and lasts). But Putin can count on Chechen war criminals to side with him!
UPDATE: The situation at Kiev:
More Russians are pushing from the northeast on the other side of the river.
UPDATE: Ukrainian civilians are making Molotov Cocktails--home made fire bombs. They were named after Stalin's foreign minister Molotov who claimed Russia assaulted Finland in 1939 to save them. Ukrainians should update the name to Lavrov Cocktails, given that polished scumbag's role in this war's lies. The Finns also called Russian bombs "Molotov's bread baskets" because he (falsely) claimed Russian planes were dropping bread for the starving Finns.
UPDATE: This is what I've been saying and why I thought Russia wouldn't risk a major war. But I was wrong. Perhaps Putin believed his own BS. Russia still has the edge over far weaker Ukraine. But this war will tarnish the image of Russia's modernized military that Putin has banked on.
UPDATE: I still don't see any confirmation of any Russian amphibious assaults anywhere on the Black Sea coast.
UPDATE: The fog of war and assessing reports. This is why I hopscotch around streaming and "print" media online to gather as much data points as I can and judge them from what I know about the combatants and warfare. So when I get things wrong, that's what happens when you don't wait a month before looking at day one.
UPDATE: Germany will send anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine. That's a major shift.
UPDATE: Russia's assumption of an easy victory may have led the Russians to have inadequate logistics support for the invasion troops.
UPDATE: Russia still has the edge in this war from numbers and firepower. But questions have been answered. Ukrainians will fight. Russians aren't as good as Russian propaganda portrays. And Western governments will supply Ukraine with the means to fight. Russia is surely winning. But Ukraine is buying time and killing Russians. Which means Russia might not win. Or if it wins it may be a win that cripples Russia's military and its economy.
UPDATE: France will send arms and fuel to Ukraine.
UPDATE: Zelensky has shown real leadership by staying in Kiev. If Putin thinks killing him will demoralize and decapitate Ukraine, I suspect Putin is wrong. Zelensky could be a martyr and more effective in death. One hopes he remains a living symbol of resistance. But a symbol he may remain regardless.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. The Crimea offensive is Russia's best drive. It confirms my view that the Russians switched direction. And the Ukrainians counterattacked to retake Kherson. The Russians are only trying to pin Ukraine's Donbas defenders in place. Which reinforces my view that the Ukrainians need to thin out--perhaps the vast majority given this assessment--their lines there to divert forces to the Crimea front, both to fight that battle and to save the ground forces in the east. Preserving the Ukrainian army is job one at this point. Russian forces are suffering from morale and logistics problems. Don't save them by losing a major army in the east. Also, Russia landed marines within friendly territory to support the Crimea front. There was no amphibious invasion. Is this enough reinforcement to allow the Crimea front to be decisive? Also from the ISW, Russia's efforts to surround Kiev failed. If Russia settles for a simpler frontal assault from the north, that is as good as it gets for Ukrainian defenders.
UPDATE (Sunday): The Russian ground forces are directly attacking Kharkiv (Kharkov).
UPDATE: Ukraine says the Snake Island defenders may be alive.
UPDATE: Reports of ground fighting west of Kiev. A bridge was blown. I assume by Ukrainians given Russians want them intact to advance. But I guess it could be a bridge Ukraine needs.
UPDATE: The British expect the Russians to escalate means to overcome the unexpected resistance. I agree. Russians have been relatively restrained. If Russia adds firepower it will be a lot more dumb bombs, shells, and rockets.
UPDATE: Russian forces inside Kiev are "irregulars" and Ukraine is fighting the remnants. I assume this means paratrooper recon elements. Or did Putin have those Chechen volunteers sent their to kill two birds with one stone?
UPDATE: The Internet has been disrupted in Ukraine. Is Elon Musk the reason it isn't totally down (tip to Instapundit)?
UPDATE: Smaller NATO states are stepping up to contribute arms and supplies to Ukraine.
UPDATE: The Telegraph map (although the key failed. But you can go to the link). Forces keep pushing toward Kiev, the eastern push toward Kiev advances, Kharkkov under assault, all quiet on the Donbas front, and the Crimea front is active but seemingly at a crawl in its eastern drive:
But I think the Odessa thrust must mean the initial failed landing rather than ongoing operations. I really think the Ukrainians need to start shifting their units in Donbas toward the west. Mostly to deal with the Crimea front. But also for Kiev. I hope the shift started last night.
UPDATE: Putin still frustrated at slow pace of war. The success of the Crimea operation--which had unique circumstances leading to success--has raised his expectations. But the interesting part is that Putin took the oligarchs with him to his Urals "bunker" so "no one will flee". Are they cut off from communications? Or is it up to the military to take Putin out--and neutralize Putin's National Guard. Is it really loyal to him?
UPDATE: Actual war reporting of where units are moving is sparse. Is it really just taking place at Kiev and Kharkiv? Is this a fault of reporting/access or is Russia pausing to actually establish war logistics and reformulate campaign plans? And it isn't just American media--that seems more interested in scoring political points by trying to claim any opposition to Biden is pro-Putin. The European coverage is better but still lacking. Although perhaps there is a conscious effort not to be Russia's open-source intelligence network?
UPDATE: Russia has put its nuclear forces on alert. Putin is pretty effed up. Somebody in that Urals bunker needs to find him dead from a self-inflicted wound with a suicide note of remorse for what he has done to Russia clutched in his other hand. So much of Russia's army is committed to Ukraine that Putin really has little else available until that war is over. Although NATO is unprepared to attack Russia.
UPDATE: This is my best guess Sunday morning my time:
UPDATE: A Ukrainian delegation will meet with the Russians.
UPDATE: While Russia's nuclear alert does not mean a nuclear strike is planned--that would do more harm to Russia than Ukraine could hope to do in a thousand years--it is dangerous when you ponder the Russian paranoia and victim complex. And I worry what Russia might do given its many nuclear threats in the past that dulls Western worry. The "boy who cried 'nuke' effect" is on.
UPDATE: Turkey is activating war time measures for the Turkish Straits. This may mean that Russian warships can't enter the Black Sea unless they came from there in the first place. Which itself isn't significant given total Russian naval dominance of the Black Sea over Ukraine.
UPDATE: Regarding Putin's implied nuclear threat, the Russians have a history of bluffing with their nukes.
UPDATE: It will be sunset in Kiev soon. I sure hope the Ukrainians use darkness to move their Donbas front forces west. Thin the lines out. I'm getting more worried that when the apparent Russian resupply lull ends that those forces could be trapped in a pocket. And I hope engineers have prepared delaying positions behind the lines. Or do the Ukrainians think they must hold everything in anticipation of a ceasefire?
UPDATE: Anti-war protests continue in Russia.
UPDATE: The threat to Ukraine's Donbas front forces exists only because the Ukrainians effed up massively by not holding the Crimea isthmus. That narrow front was a gift from God. But it was not defended? It didn't have multiple lines of fortifications, anti-tank obstacles, and minefields laid? Ukrainian artillery didn't have every point pre-plotted for artillery fire? This just stuns me. Ukrainian will and capability to fight have been great. But this failure could save the Russian war effort.
UPDATE: After a morning of not seeing any news that Russia is advancing on Mariupol from the Donbas region, I've modified my map from this morning:
It is dark now, and Russia so far hasn't done anything but bombard and conduct ground recon at night. And logistics, I assume. Fingers crossed that Ukraine can work on keeping their Donbas front forces intact and possibly even counterattack on that southern front. Just as it is only the fourth day of war for the Russian offensive, it is only the fourth day for Ukraine's response and any efforts to seize the initiative on a local level. The Kherson counterattack was a sign of that capacity.
UPDATE: News reports that Russian soldiers thought they were on a training exercise and not at war. Some captured reportedly said they didn't even know they were inside Ukraine. That's just astounding. Putin really did assume he'd road march into Ukraine objectives, perhaps unopposed.
UPDATE: I'd like to see Ukraine manage to bombard Russia's Sevastopol base complex. Although the Russian advance may have pushed the Ukrainians beyond their missile range. And plant some naval minds off of Sevastopol.
UPDATE: I'm going to take a stab at estimating Russian casualties without knowing any real statistics. Let's assume an average of 5 divisions' worth of frontline troops (50 BTGs). With four days of combat at a World War II Western rate of losses (20 per division per day in combat): 400 KIA. Assume a penalty on Russia for not fighting as well as Putin assumed and for tough Ukrainian resistance. Say 20%. So 480. Add 200 for troops lost in two transport planes that Ukraine shot down. Call it 680 Russian KIA for the first four days of combat. For what it is worth.
UPDATE: Russian television is in denial about the war. It is not eager to test Russian support for Putin's invasion.
UPDATE: Remember that Russian nuclear threats are an admission of conventional military weakness. If Russia is rattling sabres on day four of Putin's invasion, hoo boy, how bad is it?
UPDATE: Russia's slobbering vassal Belarus let Russia lob a missile at Zhytomyr airport well west of Kiev.
UPDATE: Sweden will and Finland might send weapons to Ukraine.
UPDATE: Another report said Russia accused Ukraine of using chemical weapons. In this case, phosphorous. While technically a chemical weapon, it can provide a fast smoke screen in addition to inflicting hideously persistent burns on a person. So it is legal for the former purpose but not for the latter. Injuries from the former use do not make the use illegal. We'll see why Russia framed the accusation this way. More interesting is that the Russians say this is part of fighting near Antonov airport northwest of Kiev, used as staging area for operations against Kiev. Is Ukraine counterattacking?
UPDATE: Japan is joining the US and European SWIFT banking weapon against Russian trade.
UPDATE: Hungary has opted out of assisting Ukraine. Sigh.
UPDATE: Is Kiev really encircled? I hadn't read or heard any reports today saying that.
UPDATE: Recalling that more than two months ago I said Russia would not have a short and glorious war against Ukraine.
UPDATE: Kiev is NOT encircled. The mayor said that report was disinformation.
UPDATE: The ISW update and map.
I'm really worried. This seemed like a quiet day of Russian resupply. Although the Crimea front operations against Mariupol were more active than I thought. I have a bad feeling that at daybreak Monday the Russians are going to unleash artillery Hell on the Ukrainian defenders. The Donbas front troops will be in grave danger if they aren't already retreating. This is preserve the Ukrainian army time in order to save an independent Ukraine and not the time to defend every inch of territory in the Donbas.
UPDATE: The US government says Belarus is about to become an active participant in Putin's war on Ukraine.
UPDATE: I've shifted ongoing coverage to my Monday post.
/War coverage on this post ended/
