Israel has opened a new theater against Iran inside Iraq:
An Israeli airstrike on an Iranian weapons depot in Iraq, confirmed by U.S. officials, is threatening to destabilize security in the volatile country that has struggled to remain neutral in the conflict between Washington and Tehran.
I'm going to protest that Iran's presence in Iraq is the destabilizing factor and not Israel's reaction to it. Much the same could be said for Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria which are blessed by Iran's anti-Midas touch in an effort to target Israel. Israel's strikes on Iranian targets in those countries are not the factor that destabilizes them.
This Iraq situation is a consequence of the 2011 departure of American forces from Iraq. Iraq's military leadership rotted, ISIL gained strength, and Iran gained an opportunity to enter Iraq to respond to ISIL. I was worried about Iran inside Iraq the moment we left Iraq (and long before that, of course).
America reentered Iraq, too, in 2014 in response to ISIL.
And now we battle Iran for influence inside Iraq. Which is a consequence of not defeating Iran itself.
The battle is better than the article makes it sound by saying Iraq is struggling to remain "neutral" in the long struggle between America and revolutionary Iran.
Most Iraqis reject Iranian dominance. But they fear Iran next door. They saw us leave once and so aren't sure if we can be counted on. To be fair, they asked us to leave in 2011. But to be more fair, Obama was leaving no matter what the Iraqis said.
Regardless of that history, Trump today occasionally indicates his preference to get out, too. Which would be a mistake.
And Iran has struck inside Iraq, too, in their own way:
A leading Shiite Muslim cleric followed by some Iraqi militants has issued a public religious edict forbidding the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq.
The fatwa issued Friday by Iran-based Grand Ayatollah Kazim al-Haeri comes after Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq accused the United States of being behind recent attacks on their bases and weapons depots in Iraq.
The Iraqi government will need to get their own fatwa from friendly clerics to stop the pro-Iran bloc from inciting enough support to eject American forces from Iraq. Which is what allowed Iran to openly set up shop in the first place after we left in 2011.
We have issued a response to the attack on the pro-Iranian base.
In a perfect world, the Iraqi government with American, coalition, and regional Arab support manage to reduce Iran's influence and suppress the pro-Iran militias. Then Israel will have no need to attack Iranian threats to Israel growing inside Iraq. Israel and Iraq should be unofficial allies on this issue--as Israel quietly cooperates with Arab states against Iran.
Still, remember that Iraq under Saddam was once itself the threat to regional stability. Now Iraq is a target of those Sunni jihadis and Iran who would use Iraq as a launching pad to destabilize the region. And we have the Iraqi government (mostly) on our side to fight such threats. That is a victory most people so easily overlook.
With a few more decades of American (and coalition) help, Iraq will be a more stable ally in fighting those threats at their sources.
And in a few more decades after that, Iraq might be a secure democracy like Germany and shirk all its allied defense obligations. But first things first.
Regardless, American and coalition troops helping Iraq will need to be extra careful now that the pro-Iran nutballs have their license to kill.
UPDATE: Why has Trump lowered our opening bargaining position on addressing an aggressive and nuclear-seeking Iran?
I'm fine with a slightly changed but rebranded NAFTA. Whatever. But doing the same for the awful Iran nuclear deal? What the Hell?
Like many conservatives, I'm tired of The Tweets. But what choice do I have with the turn-it-to-11 Resistance nuts who are the alternative? But if Trump goes Obama 2.0 on things like this, I think I'd rather have Democrats do them and get the blame.
UPDATE: Strategypage has a lot on the dispute and the PMF militias.
Basically, Iranian influence is being reduced but Iran is still poses a danger from its ability to initiate civil unrest or even a civil war. Iran of course wants Iraq to eject American forces, but that is unlikely because the Iraqis know they need us there to block Iran.
