However, China does not appear to be currently investing in the equipment likely required for a direct assault on Taiwan, such as large amphibious assault ships and medium landing craft necessary for a large beach assault, according to the report. The bulk of China’s recently created marine corps forces currently lack proper equipment or operational training.
“There is also no indication China is significantly expanding its landing ship force at this time – suggesting a direct beach-assault operation requiring extensive lift is less likely in planning,” the report states.
If China really wants Taiwan--and it is the most core of China's core territorial interests--and yet doesn't build up a marine and amphibious ship force to take the island, I think that the correct conclusion is not that China can't invade but that China sees an invasion looking way different than Saving Private Ryan.
And obviously my assumption on timing was way off.
