The Winter War of 2022 has entered another season. I find it hard to believe that Russia's military is far worse than even I believed.
Russia screwed up. Russian leaders believed Ukraine was ripe for collapse if just pushed a bit. The Russian military organized a large military parade into Ukrainian cities and was shocked to find itself at war. Ukraine bought time and a reason for the West to supply and support Ukraine to resist more effectively.
The latest ISW update states:
Russian forces around Kyiv are increasingly establishing defensive positions and preparing to deploy further artillery and fire control assets. Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian efforts to seize the city of Izyum, southeast of Kharkiv, and Russian forces did not conduct any other offensive operations in northeast Ukraine. Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress on Luhansk Oblast and around Mariupol, but did not conduct any offensive operations towards Mykolayiv or Kryvyi Rih.
And if true--it is reported by the Ukrainians--this is a serious problem for the Russians: "Russian forces face mounting casualties among officers and increasingly frequent desertion and insubordination."
This is in addition to Saturday's that stated:
The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.
Despite realizing that Russia's army was not as good as its propaganda told the world, I find it difficult to believe that Russia is locked into its disastrous initial course. I'd expect Russia to support the existing spearheads enough to keep some pressure on Ukraine's military to keep Ukraine's military busy and spread out. And to prevent Russian retreats.
But while doing that--as the ISW report says Russia is not doing--gather supplies and a reserve force to carry out a firepower-heavy offensive with one or two main axes of advance to finally break one section of Ukraine's front and inflict a decisive defeat on Ukraine's army by isolating and cutting off the Donbas front forces. That would allow a large advance at least on part of the front in the east. The win might be ugly. But it would be a win.
Yet I've hoped that as Russia's army on the front struggles, that Russian troops will become overstretched and vulnerable to a counteroffensive. I've hoped Ukraine has a strategic reserve of heavy forces that it can throw into the war for a significant and perhaps decisive blow on one section of the front.
Are my hope and worry based on what either can actually do? I don't know. I assume Western satellites and other reconnaissance have informed us, however. But Western countries may not be talking.
Or I'm wrong, and the Russians are as stubbornly bad as they seem. And the Ukrainians are committing everything they have to hold on, other than garrisons and territorial forces in the west that have to watch the Belarus border on that flank.
The war goes on.
UPDATE: Mariupol did not surrender. A Donbas "separatist" leader fighting for Russia said he expects the city to hold out for more than a week.
UPDATE: I assumed this was going on: "Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, who heads both Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, said that “in my 35 years” he has never seen a better sharing of accurate, timely and actionable intelligence than what has transpired with Ukraine."
UPDATE: If Russia had spent the last three weeks building up a new force to resume a single offensive rather than feed in more troops to an already inadequately supplied broad offensive, this would not matter: "On day 25 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the advance of the Russian forces has almost stalled on all fronts."
UPDATE: Russian naval forces shelled Odessa. Apparently Ukraine has no coastal defense weapons capable of targeting the Russian fleet.
UPDATE: Russian forces in Kherson have accepted that the people didn't need "liberation": "Russian troops have dispersed a demonstration in the occupied southern city of Kherson by firing on protesters, media reports say."
UPDATE: The volunteer logistics effort.
UPDATE: Stalemate? "'If we’re not in a stalemate, we are rapidly approaching one,' said the NATO official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military assessments. 'The reality is that neither side has a superiority over the other.'" The front may not move much. So in that sense it could be a stalemate. But if Ukrainian troop morale remains high while NATO supplies Ukraine, Russia may be at a disadvantage in a war of attrition. Iraq ultimately won the war of attrition with Iran in the 1980s despite Iran having three times the people.
UPDATE: Putin may be in a position to insist. But will Belarusian soldiers die for Putin? "The [senior NATO intelligence] official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Guardian: "The Belarusian government is preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus." "Imminent" nukes as in eventually, not tomorrow. Could a Lukashenko decision to go to war spark a revolt inside Belarus?
UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Basically, other than grinding down Mariupol, the Russians were either passive or unsuccessful in attacks on the rest of the fronts. The "low-quality reserves" being shoved into place just won't restore momentum.
Bombarding cities continues to be a Russian favorite, at the moment. Logistics continue to be inadequate. ISW speculates that the Russians will need to divert combat units to rear-area security.
ISW judges a Belarusian offensive into Ukraine is unlikely, and if done unlikely to succeed.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine recaptured some territory around Kiev even as Russia took some territory around the capital.
UPDATE: Russia released a fake video of Ukraine's nuclear ambitions. It only matters if enough Russians believe it.
UPDATE:
UPDATE: The U.S. is sending to Ukraine some of the Soviet-built longer-range air defense systems it acquired a long time ago to examine their capabilities. But won't they need to be updated by the Ukrainians to be of any use?
UPDATE: Why Mariupol matters so much. Is control of Mariupol really that critical now? I'm not saying it is irrelevant. But it may not be as demoralizing a loss for Ukrainians given the tough defense that has bled Russia. Ukrainians can be proud of that. And as the Institute for the Study of War has noted, taking the city may not free much Russian combat power for attacks elsewhere at this point. And even Russia can't fully exploit the value of taking the city. If this was a rescue mission, why did Russia have to reduce the city to rubble to do it?
UPDATE: A RUSI analyst says a Russian amphibious operation is unlikely. Russia is likely threatening to keep Ukrainians defending the port city. That sounds right. Russian ground forces aren't near the city and Russia seems to have landed naval infantry to reinforce ground operations.
UPDATE: Biden has warned Russia not to use chemical weapons. Would Russia really use them? Russia may not be any more prepared to operate in a chemical environment than the Ukrainians. And would Russian troop morale survive that frightening prospect? And given the horrific Western European experience with gas, would Europe ever forgive Russia?
UPDATE: Well: "For several reasons, it would be a mistake to read these initial disastrous Russian operations as a definitive predictor of the war’s result. ... [para] But Russia does not seem predisposed to the kinds of changes necessary to seize victory from the jaws of defeat." Continued failure could change their disposition, I imagine.
UPDATE: I assumed this was true: "Russia has paid a disproportionate cost among their VDV (Airborne), GRU (military intelligence) and Spetsnaz (special) forces." But new recruits and irregular mercenaries from the Middle East will make up for those losses? And could Russia--even if it can overcome the growing problem of spring mud--conduct maneuver warfare without those better troops? As I've said, firepower is generally the solution to getting poor quality troops to advance. But can Russian logistics be fixed to do that?
UPDATE: As I wrote yesterday, a stalemated front could be to Ukraine's advantage: "The Ukrainians are fighting for the existence of their country, and recent polling suggests Ukrainian resolve to fight on has only solidified with more Russian attacks against civilians. The Russians, however, are racing against a clock that will run out when they can no longer supply their forces, mobilize fighting formations, or when the domestic population or security apparatus is no longer willing to support the human and material costs of continuing the war."
UPDATE: Russia has increased their sortie rate to 300 per day. But I'll bet Russia is measuring their air power effort by inputs and not effects.
UPDATE: I heard that the Russian shelling of Odessa consisted of 6 shells. Which sounds like a demonstration and quick withdrawal before Ukraine could move in anti-ship weapons. We'll see if Ukraine can manage to ambush another raid like this.
UPDATE: Yeah, it might have been a "leak" more than a "hack": "The figure of 10,000 Russian soldiers killed during the war in Ukraine is a 'reasonable estimate', a Western official has said." Putin is breaking his ground forces by asking the good portions to do too much--and do it stupidly. Strategery.
UPDATE: That's been my impression: "U.S. has indications that Ukraine is now 'able and willing' to take back territory overtaken by the Russian military." I've noted local counter-attacks that Ukraine frequently conducts. And Ukraine took back some key territory west of Kiev. My question has been can Ukraine launch a counter-offensive against a culminated Russian offensive with multiple brigades to seriously break Russian ground units and take back big chunks of territory. Heck, if it comes soon in the south, it might save Mariupol.
UPDATE: The ISW update. This is different. Read it all. If Russia's offensive has culminated, a stalemate is looming. And if a stalemate continues, the West needs to shift from supporting Ukraine's military to supporting Ukraine as a country so it can sustain the war without collapsing. I've started to worry about Ukraine's ability to feed its cities and that is just part of what the ISW is talking about.
And what will China do? Will it subsidize Russia to keep their war effort going in the face of Western resistance? Does China want a client state that drains Chinese resources and alienates the world? How did that work out for Germany in World War II when it had to rescue Italy?
UPDATE: Linking Ukraine to Europe's electricity grid instead of Russia's was a big step to enabling Ukraine to fight on for the long term. The Baltic states should have a sense of urgency in breaking free of Russia's grid.
And while China might find supporting Russia in a long war a bit too much for a frenemy not providing a benefit, what must it be like for Russia? Having started a glorious war for Putin's glory, Putin must now beg the once-backward client of the USSR to keep Putin from dangling from a lamp post because his armed forces weren't as good as Putin thought.
UPDATE: If the West is bolstering Ukraine's economy to sustain a long war, America will need to work hard now to replace Russian energy for Europe.
UPDATE: If the war drags on, Russia may find it has trouble holding its new post-Anschluss satellite state in line: "According to the Jerusalem Post, Belarus faces an organized sabotage campaign aimed at railroad lines carrying Russian troops and supplies into Ukraine." I mentioned cyber-sabotage earlier. This is way more significant as a sign of resistance.
UPDATE: This is interesting: "Much of the Russian movement, including at sea, is happening in 'silos,' leading to some of the Russian struggles, he said." Is there really no overall Russian commander for the invasion? Which means Russia's invasion could get better simply by putting one general in charge.
UPDATE: If this does become a long war, recall my warning: "Is the future of war hypersonic weapons, space warfare, and
cyberattacks? Maybe for the first week until the fancy missiles run out
and the enemy is thrown back to 20th- or 19th-century capabilities." For both sides, of course.
UPDATE: If the war drags on, Western states supplying Ukraine's military with weapons will need to ramp up weapon production to supply Ukraine and replenish Western stockpiles.
UPDATE: I warned that Putin could take Russia along as a passenger on his Viking funeral ride. Will Russians rid the Motherland of this glory hound before he makes it even worse? #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
UPDATE (Wednesday): Per the DOD:
"We have seen indications that the Ukrainians are going a bit more on the offensive now," he said.
"We have seen them now in places, particularly in the south near Kherson, [where] they have tried to regain territory."
This could telegraph a bigger attack at some point. I assume mud sets in later in the south.
UPDATE: Yet this still worries me: "The UK Ministry of Defence's latest intelligence update says Russian troops are moving in from the north and south to 'envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country'. Troops were advancing from Kharkiv and Mariupol."
UPDATE: Russia and Ukraine have conducted two prisoner exchanges.
UPDATE: Fingers crossed: "The failures in Ukraine have started to create fissures within Russian leadership, according to Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia’s military and security services." Putin is wrecking Russia's military, economy, and standing in the world. And he'll punish others for that record. So there is reason for fissures.
UPDATE: I think Pentagon claims that Russia's invasion force has been reduced by 10% grossly underestimates the reduction in Russian military power at the front. I imagine it is based on formulas that quantify weapons and then add them up. So a soldier with a rifle is weighted much lower than a tank or artillery piece. Losing lots of infantry is trivial with that method. But the whole is more than just the sum of its parts. Over-reliance on quantitative measures is a problem.
UPDATE: What's up with that? "Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has not appeared in public since March 11, Russian media has reported."
UPDATE: Russia has even effed up their communications. As a former Signal Corps soldier, that's just personally offensive. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: It would be interesting if Belarusian units that join Putin's war on Ukraine simply turn around and defect once inside Ukraine. And even if the unit leaders stay loyal, I have to believe Ukrainian propaganda might get a lot of troops to defect or desert. Is Lukashenko sure he wants to let his army get into a position to escape?
UPDATE: That's interesting: "'There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin,' assesses the [British] MoD." Because of Russian supply and morale problems.
UPDATE: The latest ISW update and map. Russians are largely going over to defense while trying to push forward in Mariupol; while Ukrainians are beginning to conduct more local counter-attacks.
UPDATE (Thursday): The Ukrainians claim to have sunk a Russian amphibious warfare ship in the Sea of Azov port, Berdyansk.
UPDATE: NATO estimates that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have died in a month of war. So you should add an estimated 21,000 to 45,000 wounded. I'm not sure how many of those would be wounded too seriously to keep fighting. If Russia needs to send in new conscripts and mobilized reservists, civilians could start to get pretty upset.
UPDATE: Ukraine said it located the ship it sunk from a Moscow propaganda video. I would not be surprised if that story conceals the real source of information on the location of the ship.
UPDATE: Has Russia failed to seize control of Ukrainian air space simply because it has no doctrine for it on the assumption that it cannot win such a campaign against NATO--so doesn't have the capacity to even try? That is beyond simply relying on artillery because it assumes it won't be able to use air power for close air support. And it calls into question America's Air Force resistance to providing ground forces with close air support.
UPDATE: Don't under-estimate Russian counter-insurgency skills. They are brutal and determined. I mentioned that Russia/USSR has managed to pacify Ukraine before, in the last data dump.
UPDATE: We really need to ramp up production of the weapons we are sending to Ukraine. Which I mentioned earlier.
UPDATE:
UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Russia is grinding into Mariupol and pushing slowly on the Donbas front. Ukraine seems to have the initiative around Kiev.
UPDATE (Friday): Good Lord, is Russia really taking huge numbers of Ukrainians to Russia to serve as hostages? Russia says they went voluntarily. Maybe to avoid war. But do they want to remain in Russia?
UPDATE: Good: "The US will work to supply 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to European Union markets this year[.]" Now open our spigots for more production. More on the deal. It's a start and not the solution.
UPDATE: Turkey's Erdogan says "'As is known, there is almost a consensus regarding such issues as NATO, disarmament, collective security and using Russian as official language in the technical infrastructure works during the ongoing process in Belarus,' the Turkish president added. 'However, there is the issue of Crimea and Donbass, which is impossible for Ukraine to consent to.'"
UPDATE: Interesting: "Ukraine's military has been able to re-occupy towns and defensive positions east of Kyiv through counterattacks and and Russian Forces falling back on overextended supply lines, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in a Friday morning update."
UPDATE: Russia allowed a drone gap develop with Ukraine.
UPDATE: Yes, the fog of war still exists despite the flood of "information" coming out of the war. Even the good guys--and yes, despite its corruption, Ukraine is still the good guy in this war--spin the truth, hide the truth, and lie to try to win. The Budapest Memorandum and the UN Charter itself establish that Putin is the bad guy.
UPDATE: FFS, what more do the Russian elites need to get rid of Putin? "Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of 'trying to cancel' Russia, as he cited the backlash against British author JK Rowling." Jesus, this is more embarrassing for Russia than Spinal Tap taking lower billing than a puppet show. Putin is a real morale builder for Russia.
UPDATE: Scaling back the invasion objectives? "The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the 'complete liberation' of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region."
UPDATE: The Polish president's plane had to make an emergency landing on a trip to meet President Biden. What if the plane had crashed? What if the assumption was that Russia shot it down? Russia--via Medvedev--has already verbally slammed Poland for helping Ukraine. This war is dangerous if it goes on. Putin thought a quick and glorious war would increase Russian security. A bloody war that drags on is a threat to Russian security. If Putin had the sense of a mossy rock, he'd stop his war on Ukraine.
UPDATE: Ukraine says the Snake Island sailors were returned in a prisoner swap with Russia. Good!
UPDATE: The first stage of effing up royally has been successfully achieved. So Russia can move to the second stage of actually achieving the war objective: "Russia says the 'first stage' of what it calls its 'special military operation' has been mostly accomplished and that it will now concentrate on 'the liberation of the Donbas'."
Good luck with this: "As many as 10 new battalion tactical groups are being generated and put into Russia’s operations, especially in the Donbas." Whether new from brigades at their bases or reconstructed from the shattered remnants of those that fought in Ukraine, they won't be as good.
Still, this worries me, too: "Western officials have been concerned for some time that Russia will attempt to encircle and envelop Ukraine’s best fighting units, which are stationed along the line of contact." I may mock the Russians for their first month of war. But Russia could still win. Or at least score a win on the battlefield. We'll see who successfully strikes first.
UPDATE: Ukrainian troops have counter-attacked successfully around Kiev. And I see mention of a Ukrainian mechanized brigade. I've long said I don't hear of Ukraine's heavy forces and wondered where they are. Because they'd be useful for attacking. But perhaps the units weren't committed until now. Perhaps the news is just mentioning them now. I don't know which.
UPDATE: The Pentagon says Kherson is now a "contested" city. Not that Russia doesn't still control it. Russia does. But Ukraine apparently has the capacity to change that. Which is an interesting thing to say about a city still controlled by Russia and not apparently under attack by Ukraine. This is where I've hoped a big Ukrainian counter-offensive could take place.
UPDATE: The apparent decision by Russia to attack on a narrow Donbas front is a good sign. It means Russia has decided to match means to objective by lowering the objective. Given the difficulty of matching conventional means to taking Ukraine from the Belarus border to the Black Sea, nukes would have been the only way to match means to the objective.
UPDATE: The latest ISW update. They say that Russia's claim to be focused on the Donbas is a complete lie directed solely at Russians at home who were told the war was about saving the region from Nazis. Russia's lack of advances on the broad front, except at Mariupol, is because Russia can't attack now. Although the Russians have made small attacks at other points on the front that were largely unsuccessful. Ukraine has successfully counter-attacked both west and east of Kiev. Russia continues to shell Kharkiv.
UPDATE (Saturday): Telegraphing or concealing? "An adviser to the Ukrainian ministry of defence, Markian Lubkivskyi, predicted troops could on Saturday take back Kherson, the first major city that the Kremlin's forces seized."
UPDATE: Interesting: "As we reported earlier, the [senior US defence] official - who briefed reporters [in Warsaw] on condition of anonymity - argued that Ukrainian forces could retake Kherson, the southern city captured by Russia in the first days of the war."
UPDATE: Russia has lost an unusually large number of senior officers. I wonder how many lower level officers have been lost. Seriously, Russia could be breaking its ground forces in this war.
UPDATE: Well, sure, who didn't expect this? "Russia is running out of precision guided munitions and it is more likely to rely on so-called dumb bombs and artillery, a senior Pentagon official said on Thursday."
UPDATE: Putin is calling in his favor: "Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia has sent troops to Ukraine to 'help protect Russia', its leader said on Saturday, as Moscow's military campaign in the neighbouring country entered its 31st day." Sucks to be in debt to Moscow.
UPDATE: This is housekeeping. I've added a "Winter War of 2022" tag for these updated posts on the war. This doesn't included all posted material on the war, because of separate single-topic posts or war-related posts in the "Weekend Data Dumps". Or even memes in "And Now For Something Completely Different" posts.
UPDATE: Biden's speech in Poland on Saturday was poorly delivered. The sound system didn't help. Its significance is that it was made. A call to resist Putin's invasion of Ukraine was great. But I think it was a horrible mistake to say Putin cannot remain in power.
One, Biden doesn't mean to make good on his threat of regime change any more than Obama meant it when he said Assad had to go. And two, Putin might believe it and decide that he must pursue total victory or death. I'm hoping Biden didn't make a costly mistake.
UPDATE: Clean up in aisle 7:
Joe Biden's speech in Poland sparked chaos this evening after the US president appeared to call for regime change in Russia. ...
But just minutes later, the White House issued a statement denying that he had been calling for the Russian President to be removed from the Kremlin.
I guess that line wasn't on the TelePrompter.
UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Notwithstanding Russian claims to be making the Donbas their main effort, lack of Russian movement on the rest of the front is from inability and not strategy. Russia is carrying out ground attacks in the Donbas region. The Russians will likely split the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol within days. Ukraine continues to carry out effective local counter-attacks. Russia is finding it must garrison Kherson to avoid losing it--to local armed civilians? It is unclear. The Russians appear to be struggling to replace losses.
UPDATE (Sunday): A new iron curtain? "Russia is trying to split Ukraine in two to create a Moscow-controlled region after failing to take over the whole country, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence has said." Russia may have given up on conquest of all of Ukraine, but it has apparently not decided to withdraw. Ukraine will start guerilla warfare in occupied territory. We'll see if Ukraine can make that lesser goal unachievable. Depends, in part, on whether the West helps Ukraine.
UPDATE: I heard that Russian casualties include a lot of non-ethnic Russians. Is that true? If so, Russia can fight longer before casualties become a political problem for Putin.
UPDATE:
UPDATE: The latest ISW update: Russia continues to attack Mariupol, and in the Donbas where non-Russian units (Chechens, local pro-Russian Ukrainian, and mercenaries) can take some of the losses. Russia is trying to rebuild units to attack Kiev and is pushing logistics units in to solve that problem. Ukrainian partisans are active in the Kherson region, fighting Russian National Guard (Putin's "personally loyal" army) units that were sent to secure the rear areas. Ukrainian local counter-attacks take place but don't seem to change much the last day.
NOTE: This post is closed for updates. War coverage continues here.
