I continue war updates in this post.
Germany will buy up to 35 F-35s to replace their old Tornado aircraft. I believe this is for the purpose of continuing the German air force mission of carrying out its nuclear mission, using American nuclear bombs.
Remember that Russia has a lot more tactical nuclear weapons than America because America could replace the nukes with precision conventional weapons for the missions the nukes once were needed for.
Again, people should be careful because this path led to internment camps for Japanese-Americans: "Think twice before you punish a ‘Russian’ over Putin’s horrible war[.]" Via Instapundit. Not that I expect Biden to go full FDR on Russian-Americans. But it can get ugly for people before that step. Cancel culture is already up and running with leftist approval. Who knows where it will turn? I will post my prophetic meme again:
Starlink goes to war. Musk challenged Putin to a duel. Remember that if Russia goes after Starlink, Musk may go after Russia's satellites. All those Starlink satellites are potential anti-satellite weapons.
Democracy in Russia dies in Western-approved darkness. Nothing could get in the way of Obama's "reset" with Russia. Not that NPR even mentioned that motive. Via Instapundit.
Will Western sanctions on Russia lead China to rethink its aggressive policies lest it suffer the same thing? Or will China conclude that the West wouldn't dare do to rising China what it is doing to the declining Russian peasants?
Oh? "How did we end up here? We all thought Putin's modernized Russian army was ten feet tall and led by a General who, in military thinking circles, is a veritable rock star. What gives?" Who's this "we", Kemosabe?
Bernie Sanders was as much of a reaction to the real divisions in America as Donald Trump was.
Cold Response: "Several thousand U.S. Marines and sailors are among the roughly 30,000 troops from 27 NATO and partner countries taking part in Norway’s largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War." In my view, this is a staging area for the Baltic littorals.
Did Russia think it had a "blank check" from China? "On Feb. 4, weeks before the Russian invasion began, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that their nations’ ties had 'no limits,' and that Russia is its 'most important strategic partner.'" Limits seem to exist, after all. Tip to Instapundit.
Brady can't get out of the NFL and Kaepernick can't get back in. Maybe 2022 will be okay, after all.
Please don't. Our allies are frightened enough of Russia right now: "Senior White House officials are discussing the possibility of Joe Biden travelling to Europe in the coming weeks to discuss the war in Ukraine with Allies[.]" I'm not trying to be partisan. FFS, Democrats were afraid to let Biden appear before American voters during the election. Keep him in the basement for this war.
In the short run this lockdown fever in China even against Omicron hurts America and the world, in addition to harming China. But in the long run, it helps decoupling from China's economy. Which results in America and the world not losing while China continues to lose. We assumed the Xi Jinping Flu would harm America more than China. Are we correct in the long run? And don't ask me to define "short" or "long" run.
The rest of America finds your terms acceptable.
If Putin goes through with the threat of expropriating leased aircraft in Russia, Russia will have essentially extended the Western embargo indefinitely as no company will want to accept that risk even after the war ends. Tip to Instapundit.
Actual resistance to actual tyranny. May God help her.
From the "What the Fuck Did You Expect to Happen When You Backed the Taliban" files: "The security situation inside Pakistan is getting worse and Pakistan blames this on the growing chaos in Afghanistan plus foreign (Indian) support for some terror groups in Pakistan."
Iran digs deeper. Doesn't that just mean the Iranians will never retrieve the bodies?
Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia. I've worried about how that would affect Ukraine's ability to resist Russia. One thing I should have factored in is this obvious (now that I read it) difference: "The fundamental difference between Ukraine and Russia today is that Ukrainians have become citizens of their own country, while Russians remain subjects of their ruler."
The Pacific Air Force is eager to gete F-15EX aircraft.
Finally: "The Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, demonstrates that 'hybridity' did not transform the character of war, and kinetic force retains its primacy." Western obsession with it was driving me batty.
I don't trust an EU mission: "Leaders of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia are traveling to Kyiv on a European Union mission Tuesday to show support for Ukraine." Never let a crisis go to waste to promote the EU.
I've resisted statins (via Instapundit): "Statins lower cholesterol, but not necessarily heart attack risk, study finds[.]" I refused statins, feeling there was an odd fixation on the numbers rather than my underlying health. Eventually I changed my diet enough and increased exercise to lower my bad cholesterol barely enough to end the advice to take them. I've worried in recent years that doctors treat numbers and not patients.
We should have hung these 9/11 sons of bitches long ago. Justice delayed was justice denied. It's pity the victims of 9/11 couldn't use American lawyers to delay their deaths twenty years--and now to their natural ends.
Nigeria has failed to reach its potential. Can Nigerians decide to do better? Can they?
What is causing Saudi Arabia's sudden embrace of China? I'd guess it is a shot across the bow for Democrats' odd unrequited love for mullah-run Iran and its hostility toward the Saudis. Biden is finding that if you keep pushing someone away, eventually they may go away.
China and Russia are expanding their influence in Africa. "'A few troops and a few bucks can go a long way' in Africa, [the AFRICOM commander] added." AFRICOM is an economy-of-force theater. But some forces are still needed. And I think a modularized auxiliary cruiser, what I dubbed The AFRICOM Queen, could be a force multiplier.
Is Xi Jinping "in trouble" over foreign policy decisions that have spurred more foreign resistance and opposition to China's rise, once seen as inevitable? And what does that mean when Xi has gathered so much power in his hands? I worry "we" are in trouble if Xi's insular bubble is as strong as his control of China appears to be. Please adjust your pucker factor accordingly.
Did Putin's invasion of Ukraine throw off Xi's plans to invade Taiwan in the fall for a victory to cement his power? I have no idea. But a smaller victory at Pratas Island might do the trick. And avoid biting off more than the PLA can chew, as Putin seems to have done.
As I assumed, a German buy of F-35s is to continue Germany's nuclear deterrent mission in NATO. Which suddenly seems wise.
If Russian efforts to get an Iran loophole to evade sanctions derails a new Iran nuclear deal that could be worse than the original, I'll offer grudging but sincere thanks to the Russians.
So what's up in China? "Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day since the global financial crisis, as concerns over Beijing’s close relationship with Russia and renewed regulatory risks sparked panic selling." We may know by the time this post publishes.
Not that the guns do anything, but it certainly simplifies the additions: "There’s enough space and weight margin aboard the Zumwalt-class
destroyers to install two tubes for hypersonic missiles without removing
the ship’s 155mm gun mounts[.]" The class is a test-bed with secondary combat capabilities. [Never mind. The guns have to go.]
I'm not going to lie. I thought the threat of sanctions against a large country like Russia were overblown: "The economic cost of Russia's assault on Ukraine was further exposed on Wednesday as the sanctions-hit country teetered on the brink of its first default on international debt since the Bolshevik revolution."
I will never get woke language rules. You can't call somebody "handicapped" because it supposedly defines them by their disability. But you can totally call women "bleeders". Because woke reasons.
If Democrats have a raging hate-on for Putin's Russia now, wait until they find out what Xi's China does!
Ukraine has turned to the west in one basic function because of the war--connecting to Europe's electric grid instead of Russia and Belarus.
Good question: "Forcing loyalty oaths out of people is the sort of thing Putin does. If I don’t think it’s good when Putin does it, why would I think it’s good when it’s done to oppose him? Why are you people behaving like the guy you want to stop?" The simple answer is because they like power as much as the guy they want to stop. Related news: "Vladimir Putin issued a warning to Russians he described as traitors and said the West wanted to try to use them as a 'fifth column' to destroy the country." Remember, that's Putin. Not any random MSNBC host.
It was a mistake for Biden to call Putin a war criminal. If Russia's invasion of Ukraine is to end with diplomacy rather than a battlefield victory by one or the other, the world will have to deal with Putin. Let others call Putin a war criminal. Biden did not have to. Putin may conclude Biden has decided that the war must end with Putin hanged or imprisoned. Russia has nuclear weapons, BTW. [Later: Someone with similar thoughts.] [And later: Biden's statement does not constitute American policy, per his press secretary.]
If there are people in Russia who want to overthrow Putin, there is a basis in law for doing so: "Russia's parliament earlier this month passed a law making public actions aimed at 'discrediting' Russia's army illegal and banning the spread of fake news." Putin has discredited the army by throwing it into combat with a parade ground strategy. Just saying.
I think we can all agree that when a wealthy and privileged man is released from jail without having to pay bail even after being convicted of organizing a racist and homophobic attack, that America surely is an institutionally racist and hetero-fascist state. Deny it, you hater.
When I speak of Western countries siding with Ukraine against Russia, I of course include Japan. Say, is Russia regretting not giving back those islands the USSR captured from Japan in 1945?
We really need to smooth out the glitches in the F-35 program. It really is the only game in town. And seems to work really well--when it is working. Really.
That's the one I got and I haven't been sick: "Roughly 17 million Americans received the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine, only to be told later that it was the least protective of the options available in the United States. But new data suggest that the vaccine is now preventing infections, hospitalizations and deaths at least as well as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines." And to the extent allowed by law, I've been out and about without a mask for a year now. Your mileage may vary. Tip to Instapundit.
Oh? "Vladimir Putin, in a speech to Cabinet members and regional leaders, warned against attempts by the West to use Russians who oppose his rule to bring about the 'destruction of Russia'." Please. Putin is doing fine all by himself.
Could the defeat of Russia start in Belarus?
Is it just me or does Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov look like a total douchebag? The man has a water bed, I'm sure.
A good reminder that Putin will be stopped by Westerners who join the military, build the weapons, and produce the energy--and not TikTok influencers. Tip to Instapundit. My old advice holds.
Russia's geography sucks for them. But they clearly should have chosen an easier target.
The updated Stinger still stings.
Well, naturally: "NATO military planners have begun weighing options for beefing up the defensive capabilities of vulnerable alliance members following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday."
Perhaps: "Unfortunately for the Russians, they face the worst of circumstances for an occupying power. Historical cases of occupation and counterinsurgency suggest an impending disaster. There is almost no chance that Russia will successfully occupy Ukraine." Russia controlled Ukraine for centuries, including reoccupying it after losing it during World War I and World War II. So I can't say there is "almost no chance" of winning. It will hinge on whether NATO supports the resistance.
Journalism delayed is journalism denied. Two years ago that would have been journalism. Now? Just ef our garbage media hive mind.
And it gets worse. Not only does a no-fly zone over Ukraine require NATO planes to shoot down Russian planes--some deep inside Russia or Belarus--but it also requires NATO planes or missiles to attack Russian air defense systems that might threaten our planes. Tip to Instapundit.
There are 100,000 American troops in Europe. That hasn't been the case in a long time. But I assume a sizable fraction is afloat on Navy ships in the region. Which makes it less impressive.
So? "A Chinese aircraft carrier sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Friday, Taiwan's Defence Ministry said, just hours before the Chinese and U.S. presidents were due to talk." China is confused. Unlike China, America doesn't claim the Taiwan Strait as its territorial water. So China can have a ball sailing in international waters.
The Philippines remains in China's sights.
Would Putin destroy himself if he orders the use of nukes to save himself? "As was demonstrated during the 1980s, there are Russians in that bureaucracy that will not automatically carry out orders to use nukes. Russians at all levels are talking about this, most of them openly. Those closer to Putin must be discreet to survive. They want to survive and most Russians agree with that and Putin has become one of the obstacles to Russian security rather than a trusted guardian of that security."
If memory serves me, before Reagan was elected there was talk about dethroning the dollar as the universally accepted currency for oil sales by replacing it with a "basket" of multiple currencies, including the dollar. Here we go again.
I'm just not worried about India buying Russian oil. Indeed, it can help. Let's not be stupid about this.
Israel can't believe Biden might remove Iran's terrorist Revolutionary Guards from the terrorism list. I can.
It is darkly humorous that the Russians invaded another country while threatening nuclear weapons. And at the same time say others are reacting to them in a Russophobic manner. I'd say that Russia under Putin has earned some fear. And loathing.
China apparently has a new coastal defense sub designed for export. Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia would love some, I bet.
Maybe: "Stalled Russian forces across a number of fronts in Ukraine “should give pause” to Chinese military planners looking across more than 100 miles of water at Taiwan as an amphibious invasion target, Gen. David Berger, Marine Corps commandant, said Wednesday." But China can win if it gets ashore and can get a ceasefire. I explored this in Military Review.
I doubt Ukraine would still be fighting the conventional phase of the war, at least in the east, if Ukraine wasn't getting shipments of Western arms and ammunition. The tangible sign of support is a morale booster in addition to the material help. Imagine what could have been different in Afghanistan if our local allies had felt supported rather than abandoned?
These cosmonauts may want to hitch a ride back to Earth on a Elon Musk spaceship. [The men in question deny a political statement. But who knows what the story will be when they return to Earth?]
No! Way! "The U.S. is gathering over-the-horizon intelligence on terrorist activities in Afghanistan but hasn’t made a strike against ISIS-K and al Qaeda, the head of U.S. Central Command told a Senate panel said." It's almost as if that is predictable.
The Marines are practicing shooting at ships with their 155mm guns: "The North Carolina exercise was a step toward proving the M777′s worth in the future small, dispersed littoral fight the Corps is prepping for." I think the littorals these Atlantic Marines should prepare for are in the Baltic Sea to combat Russian operations there.
Lying partisan bastards. But none dare call it "fake news." Tip to Instapundit.
You can hardly blame jihadis for thinking God is on their side. Tip to Instapundit.
Macron has used the war to push for a European Union army: "Emmanuel Macron’s proposal for an EU army risks destabilising Europe, Poland’s deputy prime minister has warned, describing the military assistance of the US and UK as 'more important'." Never waste a crisis for your goals, eh Macron?
Accused jihadis deserve legal counsel. But not Trump, January 6th clients, or Russians. Got it. Morality is simple, really.
The Navy will test using an amphibious carrier as a light carrier with Marine F-35Bs: "Early this coming April, United States Marine Corps F-35Bs from three squadrons will converge aboard the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) to fully test the 'Lightning Carrier' concept." This is not the first test. But it is a full-size test with 20 planes. And this has been coming a long time. Still, this is a secondary capability for a primarily amphibious warfare ship. It makes little sense to deliberately build small carriers.
I'm just going to step out on the branch say that "no", the Winter War of 2022 does not mean the end of operational level offensives. In the long history of warfare, I do not think I am living through the end of this military ability. The faults of the Russian offensive reflect poor Russian choices and capabilities plus Ukrainian resistance and not some universal change in warfare. I'll admit I didn't bother to read it based on my objection. Your mileage may vary.
Speaking Russian is not a proxy indicator for being in favor of Russia controlling you. Putin says a lot of things that aren't true. This is one more.
