China has considered taking tiny and vulnerable Pratas Island from Taiwan. This makes sense as a graduation exercise for China's military that signals to the world that China has begun the roll back of what the Chinese Communist Party calls their Century of Humiliation.
I'm not surprised by this claim:
A top Taiwan security official told lawmakers on Thursday that China had internally debated whether to attack Taiwan's Pratas Islands but will not do so before 2024, the year President Tsai Ing-wen's term ends.
National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong did not say how he knew that such a move had been debated or why it would not happen during the next few years.
The invasion of Pratas could be over before America and allies can react. And be too small of a Taiwanese loss to provoke anything but diplomatic protests. And the level of Taiwanese resistance might tell China what their timetable for the conquest of Taiwan itself should be.
I've long identified Pratas Island as a likely target:
My guess is that Pratas Island is the likely target if China makes that move:
China has been exercising its navy recently and Xi Jinping told his troops to be ready for war. Is "war" going to be the seizure of Taiwan's Pratas Islands in the South China Sea?Actually, that island was first on my radar screen in 2008. Although I didn't start mentioning it again until last summer.
Pushing hard on Scarborough Shoal, which China essentially blockades, risks entangling America because of Philippines-America treaty ties.
The same is true for targeting Japan's Senkaku Islands. And more so because America has explicitly said those islands fall under our treaty obligations.
That leaves Pratas as the likely Chinese target. It is small and lightly defended island that barely holds an airfield (plus nearby land features). So taking the island would not exceed China's military capabilities. And because it would be a small operation no mobilization and large-scale troop movements would be necessary. China could conduct a "bolt from the blue" attack under cover of maneuvers.
Even better for China, America has no formal treaty to defend Taiwan. If China quickly takes the small island without telegraphing the invasion, America has a dilemma. Liberate the minuscule island or accept it.
Taiwan will have a dilemma, too. Expand the war and risk losing a bigger war or just accept the seemingly small loss.
The Chinese will hope that a successful operation breaks American credibility to Taiwan and to our friends and formal allies.
And maybe 2024 is identified because China hopes America will be tied in knots during a presidential election campaign.
Still, giving Taiwan and America a safe zone between now and 2024 doesn't make sense for China. Unless China wants to lull their target and enhance surprise.
I thought China might invade Taiwan under cover of the 2008 Olympics held in China. My logic was sound. But it didn't happen. Russia got the nod to invade Georgia during the Olympics, instead.
Maybe the Chinese will use the upcoming winter (2020, officially) Olympics in China to cover military preparations that could be quickly turned into an invasion of Pratas when the closing ceremonies are barely over.
Having lots of foreign "hostages" stuck in China "for their safety" might be a good insurance policy against hasty actions by the Biden administration eager to prove America is still a reliable ally.
Still, we have these reassuring words from our top brass:
In Washington on Wednesday, General Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said China was unlikely to try to militarily seize Taiwan in the next couple of years, even as its military develops capabilities that would enable forcibly retaking the island.
Would that be before or after we expect the Afghanistan government to be at risk for collapse?
