Our enemies see our Afghanistan retreat and defeat as a sign that America won't fight. Dangerous miscalculations can flow from that.
The image of the sudden and shocking collapse of our ally Afghanistan, which ends our ability to fight jihadis in that part of the world, will no doubt convince enemies that they too can jump on the desiccated corpse of our resolve to achieve their objectives. And worry allies that they can't count on our support.
Despite objective measures of power that favor us, the intangible of resolve will appear to change the balance of power enough to justify risking war.
Some enemies will be right about our lack of resolve making our power too little to stop them. Especially if the timing of their pushes means we have to confront multiple threats at once. Or an enemy could be right if their lower tier threat comes first and because of insufficient power we keep our powder dry for a higher level of threat.
But eventually, in an effort to repair America's reputation left in
tatters by this debacle, America will react on a hair trigger to a
threat and react strongly against a potential enemy threatening us, an
ally, or a friend.
The example of Iraq
invading Iran in 1980 on the belief that a normally stronger Iran was
temporarily too weak to prevent Iraq from gaining its objectives should be a warning about how that can go wrong. But it won't deter all enemies. Some of our enemies will only see opportunity dangled before them, just as Saddam did.
The problem isn't just from enemies. Some friends and allies will drift away under enemy threat, cutting deals with enemies just in case even if they don't change sides. So we will face losses without war.
Perhaps an ally or friend unwilling to switch sides will, too worried to wait for American help, take military actions in the face of enemy threats that risk war. And we will offer a "blank check" out of fear of looking unreliable.
Our enemy, still operating on the belief that America is an easy target, will not back down as they might have before the collapse of Afghanistan.
The result could be that an enemy believes it can push America and get away with it; while America believes it must do whatever it takes to stop that enemy in order to reestablish the deterrence of American power.
And so we will have a war. At this point the best-case scenario is that we have a war against a small power rather than against a major power.
In 1975 President Ford's strong military response in the Mayaguez crisis was motivated in part by a desire to negate the image of American defeat after the fall of South Vietnam. That military operation didn't achieve that. But at least we didn't fight a major power.
Although the al Qaeda belief that we could be easily defeated eventually led to a long war with them. A war that will be more difficult now.
Eventually, the reputation for not having the will to fight will wear off. In part because allies want to believe that we have the will to defend them. Because most of these allies may have few alternatives to alliance with America. And no doubt some of those allies will believe they are special in ways Afghanistan--or other American allies--aren't in American calculations.
And indeed, given time, Afghanistan might encourage some allies. This is a good point:
So our friends in capitals like Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran ought to reflect: if Americans will mount a twenty years’ war to defend Afghanistan, a place of peripheral U.S. interest, what burden might they bear, what price might they bear on behalf of a long-time friend, kindred democracy, and geopolitically important country like Taiwan? One of these places is not like the other—and might warrant an entirely different strategy from Washington.
I've certainly read that the Soviets drew a similar conclusion about America's willingness to fight for NATO given the long and bloody fight in South Vietnam.
But how much time must pass before that aspect will be considered by our "friends" in foreign capitals pondering taking advantage of our defeat?
And for some enemies, like jihadis, the image of American weakness will not fade. Their belief that America won't stand and fight will be renewed by Afghanistan, adding to Somalia and Vietnam in their belief system.
Have a super sparkly day.
