America is held hostage in Kabul. Understand that fact and our actions make more sense.
There is a lot made of the fact that British (and French) troops are going out of the airport perimeter to retrieve their citizens from Kabul while America does not:
Large-scale U.S. military operations beyond the Kabul airport perimeter would entail significant risk absent prior Taliban approval. But there is a sense, at least by allies, that the U.S. military could be doing more to leverage the Taliban into providing greater ease of access to the airport for those most at risk.
Without defending the clusterfuck that the Biden administration
"planned" in its Afghanistan debacle, let me say that the British and French can carry out those missions only because America holds the Kabul airport. Our allies do understand this:
All these allies admit, however, that only the U.S. military could provide the airfield defense and air traffic control capabilities now on display.
Can we afford to send troops away from defending the perimeter? Or afford to anger the Taliban by defying their victory by waltzing troops through their city at will?
Might the Taliban look the other way while other jihadi groups fling suicide bombers at our perimeter if we exceed what the Taliban considers acceptable?
Recall, too, that we have relatively recent experience from the Battle of Mogadishu (Black Hawk Down) of small forces getting caught by much larger enemies in enemy territory without adequate support.
As distasteful as it is, we rely on the permission of the Taliban to evacuate civilians and even the troops. So we endure the humiliation because Taliban artillery (and simple mortars would do) and anti-aircraft weapons around the perimeter would cut all of us off from leaving. With all the Americans out there, operations would need to be fairly large and last some time.
Do you really think these two things aren't connected?
As the Biden administration scrambles to evacuate American personnel from Afghanistan, it is overlooking the Taliban's plans to seize some $10 billion in assets held by Afghanistan's central bank, according to congressional foreign policy leaders.
Without a permissive environment
we'd have to do a Desert One-style landing--but to a land-locked country reliant on Pakistan perhaps for permission--at another Afghanistan airport. We'd have to use
helicopters to ferry troops and civilians from Kabul airport to whatever
airport we hold open to fly them out.
God help any pilots and passengers who go down during the mission. And it would take a lot of time to complete that mission because of all the people involved. Further, once we started such a mission anybody not under our protection would be captured and held hostage. We simply could not make sure we left nobody behind.
If we're lucky, the Taliban will take the money as the price of letting us escape. If we aren't lucky, the Taliban will take the money and bring in the mortars and anti-aircraft guns.
So good for the British and French. But they rely on our humiliation to look like the heroes.
I just hope the humiliation is limited. Pray this Kabul Syndrome doesn't become Stockholm Syndrome for the Biden administration.
I mentioned we screwed the pooch on Biden's Afghanistan debacle, didn't I?
UPDATE: Biden wants to extend our stay at Kabul airport if we need more time to evacuate people.
But what price will the Taliban leadership demand for that concession?
And can the Taliban leadership enforce that permission among the various jihadi groups and even among all the Taliban factions?
UPDATE: Don't think the fall of Kabul is as bad as it can get:
At some point, we will have to transition from getting non-combatants out of Kabul to simply getting our remaining 6,000 uniformed Americans and even more allied forces out. That will be a point of the most extreme danger when the masses of civilians realize their clock is out. We will be totally at the mercy of the Taliban at that point, even more than now.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: Jen Psaki denies that Americans are stranded in Afghanistan.
UPDATE: The director of the CIA is asking the Taliban for more time to evacuate Americans from Afghanistan. I wonder what the price in money and humiliation will be?
UPDATE: A lot of Americans could be left behind in Afghanistan (via Instapundit). That's a lot of hostages.
Still, what aren't we seeing? Given that Taliban control is thin across much of Afghanistan, I don't rule out that American and other special forces are getting Americans out overland to Pakistan and Central Asian states while so much attention is on Kabul.
Or even getting people to staging areas in friendlier areas of Afghanistan where our helicopters are lifting people out.
I mean, the carrier Reagan was sent to the region to help with air strikes. What air strikes? Was that a cover for a rescue option of some sort? Did Reagan carry MV-22s to stage through Pakistan? Recall that a carrier carried helicopters secretly for the Desert One Iran hostage rescue mission back in 1980.
Fingers crossed.
UPDATE: And I mention those possibilities for unseen success because I want to be fair. Seeing the debacle in Afghanistan makes me alternately furious and depressed. I can only imagine what actual veterans of the war must be swinging between.
But just because this defeat reeks of incompetence doesn't mean I should assume nothing smart or brave can be going on. And maybe some of our leaders are accepting the stench of this defeat to cover actual success taking place.
Or maybe this is simply as bad as it seems, of course.
UPDATE: But as long as I'm looking for bad historical precedent. What would a jihadi truck bomb do at the airport if it is aimed at a loaded C-17 on the runway?
Our enemies have many ways to make this worse. Are we counting on their restraint?
UPDATE: To meet the August 31st Taliban deadline, American troops are hollowing out their presence at the Kabul airport: "These [several hundred] troops represent a mix of headquarters staff, maintenance and other enabling functions that were scheduled to leave and whose mission at the airport was complete,", according to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. Let's hope that when the last several hundred combat troops holding the perimeter have to leave that they don't have to be covered getting to the last plane on the ground by circling gunships and MOABs.
UPDATE: Hints of resolve and competence amidst the wreckage of policy:
The CIA has launched clandestine operations to rescue Americans in and outside Kabul in recent days, according to U.S. and other officials. The missions are using American military helicopters but under the control of the CIA, a typical arrangement in such operations.
Fingers crossed.
