Turkey helps Ukraine arm up to face Russia and vice versa. I guess Ukraine is Turkey's frontline against Russia as much as Syria is Ukraine's frontline against Russia.
Democracy dies in airline ticket policies? "Reps. Julie Johnson and Jessica González and their partners had allegedly planned the trip for more than a year and a half in advance of going to DC. They had non-refundable tickets and simply had to go according to Texas Monthly reporter Jonathan Tilove." I was led to believe that these people fled Texas because democracy itself is in mortal peril from the repeal of Covid-19-inspired voting procedures. Or perhaps your distance from Texas is proportional to your fears.
What are the rules for claiming Moon territory? I'd get on those Space Force SMOD units. I wonder if our Artemis Accords are really about worrying that China will carve out territory on the Moon. Perhaps by baiting China into rejecting the diplomatic initiative, we pave the way to claim territory.
China isn't exactly being honest about its position on the South China Sea. China has mastered the Clinton skill of parsing language. Who says none of our values affected China? If China is so convinced it is right on the law, why obfuscate their position so much?
Rebuilding the weak Ukrainian navy virtually destroyed when Russia invaded, occupied, and annexed Crimea. And making sure it can operate with NATO ships.
The quasi-war in cyberspace. It's all fun and games until lives rather than money and time are lost. Let's not get overly focused on the domain itself when asymmetric means are available for the counterattack.
Having blown the opportunity to get F-35s for their new small carrier by reaching out to Putin way too much, the Turks are pushing forward with making it a drone carrier: "Turkish drone maker Baykar has released new details about its newest armed drone, designed to launch from ships packed with unmanned aircraft." Will such an air wing be second best or revolutionary?
Well that's not crazy one bit: "More than a year after George Floyd’s death sparked a failed push to abolish the Minneapolis Police Department, activists and several City Council members are trying again, with a well-funded initiative that would ask voters in November whether the department — disparaged by critics for what they say is an enduring culture of brutality — should be dismantled." I guarantee that the vast majority of the "more than 30 local groups" backing the proposal are Marxist or Marxist front groups, probably with overlapping membership to simulate grass roots support. If the people of Minneapolis go along with the insane notion of disbanding their police force as leftists urge with enough liberal window dressing to make it look less Marxist in nature, I officially no longer care how bad their crime rate gets. You get what you deserve, at this point. Maybe the refugees who get the Hell out will spread some sanity to other cities that might consider that kind of suicidal idiocy.
Strategery: "U.S. President Joe Biden has dispatched a diplomatic envoy to Afghanistan in hopes of negotiating a political settlement." The Taliban care about victory and not peace. If the Taliban agree to a ceasefire before toppling the Afghan government, it will be because the Taliban need the time to regroup and reinforce to continue the offensive.
I've been listening to failed predictions of imminent climate doom all my adult life. So I yawn at their latest panic-fest of doom that only serves to worry people needlessly and ensure funding for their work. Mankind no doubt affects the climate. As do natural factors as proven by past climate changes that predate SUVs. But I don't trust the activist-scientists who claim doom. I don't trust their data. I don't trust their models. And I sure as Hell don't trust their solutions that always involve giving up freedom to wise governments. Haven't we learned our lesson about that control and trust during the pandemic? We'll solve this if and when we face problems. We're that damned good. We don't need to build and fund a vast global bureaucracy to plan a response long before we know what we need to do and what tools would be helpful. All the bureaucracy will do is soak up resources for generations better used later when we see if there is a problem.
I fully expected this: "Chinese spies are taking advantage of a visa program designed for people trying to escape Hong Kong, The Times of London reported."
It's almost cutely naive that our State Department thinks Taliban terror to intimidate their enemies into silence and surrender can be swayed by this nonsense: "'We condemn the Taliban's violent new offensive against Afghan cities,' the U.S. Embassy said. 'These Taliban actions to forcibly impose its rule are unacceptable and contradict its claim to support a negotiated settlement in the Doha peace process. They demonstrate wanton disregard for the welfare and rights of civilians and will worsen this country's humanitarian crisis.'" Yeah, the "peace process" is clearly not a Taliban priority. It's as if State believes the Taliban want to be invited to international catered conferences more than they want victory, The Taliban are smart enough to know that victory will get them the invitations.
Can't argue with this: "Just think of the media as Democratic Party operatives with bylines, who spent the last quarter century propping up Bill Clinton after the Lewinsky scandal, defending Al Gore and his doomsday rhetoric, pretending that John Kerry was the second coming of Patton, that Obama was the second coming of God, and that Hillary and Biden had track records worthy of the White House, and you’ll know that no apologies or circumspection [about their coverage of Andrew Cuomo] will ever be forthcoming."
I have nothing bad to say about Obama's grand maskless 60th birthday party. The virus is something we can cope with as we resume our lives. Obama moved on--without Fauci and his fanboys hyper-ventilating--from a vaccine that we've basically defeated. Why can't the rest of us move on? Now what I do have to complain about is the amazing media ability to say that sophisticated party-goers can really just do what they want and be safe.
American heavy bombers and gunships are helping Afghan forces. Remember, despite superior numbers the Afghan security forces are spread out on largely static guard duty--that's kind of what government forces are expected to do. And the majority of Afghan forces lack strategic mobility around their country to reinforce positions under attack. So air power is needed to reinforce outposts under attack.
I blame those climate deniers Trump and Trudeau, obviously.
Tremble, puny mortals! "At Russia’s premier expo for military aircraft in July, Russian President Vladimir Putin inspected a prototype jet that is designed to take on more than enemy fighters. The lightweight stealth plane also is meant to cause geopolitical headaches for the U.S." Well, all out Russia's wonder weapon announcements are designed to do that. But as I expect the Checkmate "stealth" fighter to be, all of them fall flat.
The GAO looks at the January 6th riot. Entering the Capitol Building that day was awful--but it was no insurrection. And if DHS had handled their job better, would anybody have made it inside?
The Biden administration has hired another online "influencer" to convince people to get vaccinated for the Xi Jinping Flu. Wait. What. Who isn't getting vaccinated?
The Marines are adopting the reloadable Carl Gustav infantry rocket launcher.
Oh FFS! The term for the kind of rock--long abandoned--is clearly awful. The rock is just a rock. Without the term, the rock is fine! There must be little racism in America if this is considered a woke victory. Lord, there are a lot of morons on our college campuses. God help us all. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's recent history of spoofing ship Automatic Identification System (AIS) positions. The Russians are just pointlessly annoying. Legends in their own minds.
The Army is rebuilding an artillery command in Germany with an eye on Russia: "A two-star general will lead a new European theater command in Germany
that will oversee efforts to coordinate artillery and other advanced
weaponry focused on hitting more distant targets." If the Russians surge through Belarus to hit NATO, the long road and rail march plus line of supply through that country will be a prime target.
The U.N. and A.U. are planning to start withdrawing the nearly 20,000 peacekeepers in Somalia. Over 15 years they've suffered a thousand dead and four times that number wounded. I didn't realize the mission was that deadly. Donors no longer think reducing the violence to a dull roar is worth the price. As I've observed before, Somalia is not a state. It should be broken up and sold for parts. Let pieces organize themselves into recognized states. Two in the north basically have already--reward them for that. See if some are successful enough to attract other parts. Heck, transfer some territory to neighboring states if necessary. But Somalia is a long line on the map with a UN seat but nothing else to make it a nation or state.
Strategery: "The Biden administration withdrew without basic details worked out in advance. The two identifiable tactics as it relates to supporting the Afghan government are ad hoc airstrikes against the Taliban, and a round of utterly humiliating hashtag diplomacy as U.S. leaders are forced to pretend the peace process has any relevance of credibility. This week the administration even threatened that any government taking power in Afghanistan absent the Doha peace process would be internationally isolated. You might have sensed that will not deter the Taliban." Democrats only demand a perfect plan when Republicans are in charge. Not when they wage war.
Governor Cuomo resigned. We'll see if he pays a legal price for crimes against women or mass killing of the elderly. Heck, we'll see if he pays more than a brief political price.
Don't buy the latest climate panic. Remember, the activist-written panic amplified by their media ally megaphones goes well beyond what the actual real science justifies. I'm just bored by their ever louder and more frantic cries of doom. Their mental health problems shouldn't be my problem. I'll have more respect for the alarmist position when they welcome natural gas fracking and nuclear power plants, which produce less emissions than oil or coal. Tips to Instapundit. Heh, after writing this section I see that perhaps it isn't mental health but religious faith.
Britain and China play cat and mouse in the South China Sea.
Contrary to this request in a five-part series, I want the European Union to stay out of Black Sea security crises. The EU's objective in getting involved isn't to solve the problem. It's objective is to have the authority to be consulted on problems.
I'm simply not terribly worried about Covid-19 any more. With good reason. The country can move on confident we can cope with the Xi Jinping Flu virus that likely leaked from a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan. The Delta panic failed to scare enough of the country, so now Lambda gets its shot as the dread doomsday variant. I have to conclude that some people simply like living in "end times". Religion isn't declining in America. It's just migrating to different animist-like forms (like climate alarmism) that we don't define as religion. Heh, after writing this section I see a very related story.
Inconveniently, there are reasons to be at least somewhat phobic about an ideology that motivates so many killers and oppressors. Which is no excuse or reason to harm the innocent who don't decide Allah wants them to kill or oppress, of course. But those are different things. You shouldn't use the innocent as human shields to excuse and protect the killers and oppressors.
I inherited my mother's cat. The cat puked up its late-night snack on a rug by the door. And then--thank God!--managed to run across the easy-to-clean wood floor to disgorge the rest on my new carpet. I discovered this as I came down to make coffee in the morning. She's a good cat. But between this normal cat behavior and the seizures the poor cat endures periodically, I despair of keeping my home fit for human habitation. Oh well. Work the problem, as I always say. I still think that cat food manufacturers should base their food on carpet colors and not flavors.
It's so odd that "pro-Black" woke activists behave a lot like old-fashioned racist segregationists. No similarities at all, I'm sure, eh? I mean, at one level it is very clever. Classic racists said that African Americans shouldn't be around white people to protect white people from Black people. The Neo-racists say white people shouldn't be around Black people to protect Black people from white people! Totally different. How soon before the Critical Race Theory-obsessed woke demand the busing of students across district lines to enforce this vision of progressive safe-space education? Via The Morning Briefing.
The Idiocracy Bill in Oregon was quietly signed with no publicity. Tar. Feathers. How is denying minorities an education out of "compassion" any different than denying minorities an education out of "hate"? Oh well, I guess those kids are acceptable collateral damage in the woke war on America. Make it impossible for the poor to advance out of their position at birth and defund the police. That's a winning combination, no doubt. If Oregonians of all colors don't reject this insanity, they deserve what they voted for. I'm done caring about them.
The Axis of Convenience comes to an end: "For centuries Turkey, Iran and Russia were all antagonists, not allies, and their seeming “alliance” in Syria was all a mirage."
The Russian Checkmate fighter. It is based on the loser in the competition with the F-22, the YF-23. I'm not worried about the Russian plane until reliable news comes in. Also, I did not know or forgot that the Su-25 was based on stolen data for the loser to the A-10 ground attack plane.
So that's why the Iranian hijackers left that ship--the crew successfully carried out counter-measures: "At least eight Iranian gunmen sought to emulate Somali pirates by boarding the tanker Asphalt Princess off the UAE coast but failed to take control of the ship. The crew locked themselves in a safe room and disabled the engines. The Iranians were unable to gain control of the engines and were adrift. They left the ship early the next morning as warships closed in to free the ship and capture the pirates. The Iranians apparently planned to take the tanker to an Iranian port and demand large fines for non-existent violations."Of course, the successful physical defense of the ship would be useless in a cyber-attack on a ship at sea.
Yes, the Delta wave will not have the death toll of past Xi Jinping Flu waves. The article frames it as "may" but it seems clear that "will" is the proper description. Why would it be as bad with vaccinations, virus-induced immunity, and a weaker if more contagious pattern? And recall that the first wave killed off a lot of the vulnerable. We won. Move on and work the problems we have--not hype the problems into Armageddon that justify massive controls forever. Tip to Instapundit.
Is the Xi Jinping Flu Delta variant going to throw China's recovery off the rails?
A new "Skunk Works" factory. Hopefully Skynet doesn't smile.
This does not look good at all: "Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said one Army and two Marine infantry
battalions will enter Afghanistan within the next two days to assist at
the Kabul airport with the partial embassy evacuation." This may encourage our "allies" to think all is lost. But it may be wise given our bad decision to prematurely leave Afghan forces on their own. Because it may lower the scope of a future massacre of Americans by the Taliban when the outcome we have promoted by our idiocy takes place. We really don't have much confidence in that "peace process" with the Taliban, do we?
Understanding vaccine hesitancy.
Stuck between regional powers Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia as well as at the Shia-Sunni and Arab-Persian divide plus American influence, Iraq hopes inviting Saudi Arabia and Iran, among others, to discuss regional issues will preserve Iraqi autonomy.
North Korea is issuing threats to South Korea. North Korea can either nuke South Korea (maybe, if the nukes work) or bleed on it. And probably both if the Kim Jong-Un selects the former.
For years, with the support we've given the Afghan government and security forces, the Taliban have been unable to topple the Afghan government. With a sanctuary in Pakistan, the Taliban could not be wiped out. Afghan forces fought despite the claims now that they can't fight and never have fought. They were obviously fighting because our few troops were not fighting any more. Biden decided to stop providing that support and the Taliban are making gains. If the Taliban win it is not because their win has always been "inevitable." It will be because we walked away and invited the Taliban to win against Afghan security forces designed to fight with support we provide and that still need our help to maintain and sustain their military. And so Afghanistan may again be a sanctuary for jihadis who want to kill us at home. If this comes to pass, it will be an own-goal and too many Americans are celebrating this possibility. I'm so old, I remember when this was the "good" war.
Chinese money versus the desire for democracy: Burma front.
Enemy hypersonic missiles require an American global unblinking eye? Of course, I worry that having an all-seeing (we think) view will paralyze our leaders who won't know how to make decisions without having all (they think) information. Leadership is about making good decisions with very imperfect knowledge. Can we cope with this kind of capability that won't deliver what it promises and which will erode in combat?
Asking if the price we paid in Afghanistan was worth it misses the point. We've paid the price and the question is what do we do going forward. The idea that we should leave Afghanistan now because of the price we paid the last 20 years was too much is insane. The price we paid in lives and money is already spent. We don't get a refund when we leave. The troops who died don't return and the money spent does not appear in our treasury. What we are doing is refusing to pay the relatively small price going forward to defend what our major payments achieved. We had around a few thousand troops there who hadn't sustained a single death in a year and a half. But no. We're effing up Afghanistan. Without reason. We won in Afghanistan, where jihadi terrorists were denied a sanctuary because Afghan security forces killed Taliban every day. All the Afghan security forces needed was our support personnel, air power, and logistics. We were not on the ground pulling triggers. But if Afghanistan falls to the Taliban we'll hand a country over to murderous scum who want to kill us. Bravo. Brilliant. An own goal that will lead to dead American civilians in the future. And we may see what our military casualties will be in the evacuation of our embassy. God, this is frustrating. Total effing idiocy.
India's first domestically built carrier successfully underwent sea trials.
Lebanon has problems: "Severe fuel shortages and wide power cuts have paralyzed tiny Lebanon, with some businesses temporarily closing down on Friday as top security officials met to discuss the situation." Can the parasite Hezbollah live if the host dies?
The Block 5 Virginia should be pretty deadly. As the post notes, the Block 5 is meant to replace our 4 aging Ohio-class SSGNs that pack in a lot of cruise missiles. But the Block 5s are much more. And they disperse the cruise missiles across more platforms.
The Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard are practicing for a global naval war. Distributed operations to move past platform-centric warfare is singing to The Dignified Rant choir, of course.
The advanced Seawolf sub was too expensive to replace Los Angeles subs. But the technology allowed affordable Virginia subs. Which is all an accounting issue, really.
China is massively expanding its ICBM arsenal. Naturally America worries for itself and on behalf of our allies. But Russia should worry that China is negating Russia's nuclear deterrent to keep a short and glorious war at the conventional level where China has the advantage. I just don't believe Russian-Chinese maneuvers signal alliance. I think they are opportunities for both to assess the other's military. How expansive could China's aims be?
Can Taiwan deter China with long-range precision weapons rather than nukes? Well, precision conventional weapons could replace a lot of small tactical nukes. But I have my doubts about this plan unless the new accurate weapons can destroy targets with strategic effects. Can Taiwan destroy enough dams or power plants or leadership and command-and-control assets to replace the fear of nukes? Or would the deterrence be in destroying ships in port, logistics assets, ports, and airfields to quickly erode an invasion force aimed at Taiwan? Deterrence isn't as good when it requires masses of missiles to survive and strike rather than a small number of nukes capable of inflicting massive destruction on important cities.
This seems about right for our media message coordination:
Only the peasantry must act like global warming and the Xi Jinping Flu are code red events. Tip to Instapundit.
Arming anti-Taliban local defense forces to retake the north is probably the best way to go now. If the Taliban offensive is to reach a culminating point--when an offensive runs out of steam to capture territory or kill the enemy--before Afghanistan's security forces collapse, the Taliban have to be seen losing battles and territory soon. In the long run, such militias are a potential threat after the enemy is defeated. But Afghanistan has to survive the short run first.
Oh, fuck. I assume our military will swing into action for disaster relief.
Yes, the Taliban will be able to use captured weapons and equipment. But anything complicated will be useful only until it breaks.
Raytheon says it can provide the anti-ship missiles the Navy and Marines need. Good.
Freaking lasers on freaking Strykers. In clear weather, of course.
Hope? Nope. Dope! "Obama was set up to be the greatest of American heroes, but proved to be a common swindler and one of the great political liars of all time — he fooled us all. Moreover, his remarkably vacuous post-presidency is proving true everything Trump said in 2016 about the grasping Washington politicians whose only motives are personal enrichment, and who’d do anything, even attend his wedding, for a buck." I was not fooled. A lot of Americans weren't fooled and were falsely called racists for seeing who we elected. Tip to Instapundit.
Women and girls in Afghanistan will become less than zero if the Taliban win. The silence of American feminists is disgusting. But I'm sure there will be a lovely hashtag campaign for Afghan women and girls until those newly oppressed females get pushed out of the camera lens to be safely forgotten and lost in a new zeal to claim American women are the real victims. We should have put as much effort into teaching Afghan females to shoot as we did teaching them to read.
But on the other hand, no mean tweets!
American B-52s have the mission of bombing aircraft that fell into Taliban hands. Well, the question of whether advisors can assist Afghan mechanics via Zoom is moot, I guess. Also, the British are sending a battalion to help evacuate their people. My hopes of salvaging this are dwindling fast. My only faint hope is that the northern anti-Taliban tribes are organizing right now to deny the Taliban a total victory after Kabul falls. Tip to Instapundit.
The Australian-developed 40mm air force.
Anti-science, Trump-supporting hicks, no doubt: "People with a PhD are the most hesitant when it comes to getting the Covid-19 vaccine, according to a paper by researchers from Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Pittsburgh." Tip to Instapundit.
Oh, and about that transitory inflation. Tip to Instapundit.
I'm hoping that Democrats and their media allies will see the collapse of Afghanistan as a learning opportunity:
If the Israelis trust the Biden administration to safeguard their security against Iranian nuclear threats via a new deal, the Israelis aren't paying attention to Afghanistan now. Does Afghanistan pretty much guarantee an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear sites? Without telling Biden ahead of time?
One thing that has annoyed me about our military leaders over the last couple months is their odd detachment from the war they've waged for nearly 20 years. I'd read about their estimates of how long it would take the Taliban to win, as if they were college professors. But our generals should not be offering analysis. They should be trying to win. And telling our allies on the ground there (and our enemies) that we expect them to hold out only long enough to get Biden a decent interval is not exactly confidence inspiring. And the morale collapse that I worried could happen over the next 5 months or so if we weren't careful happened in a week. And this attempt to avoid responsibility is ridiculous: "Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin laid the blame for the collapse of the
Afghan forces on a lack of 'willpower' and 'leadership' during an all
House member call, a member of Congress told Fox News." Well yes. Our presence was meant to compensate for that until we could improve it. We knew about those problems. Don't act surprised! Bravo. I'm very disappointed by our top brass.
