The propaganda war in Afghanistan over who will win without America on the ground helping Afghan forces fight is raging. This could be the critical domain in the next six months.
This propaganda war is crucial over the next 6 months, I think:
In three days, at least five provincial capitals have been seized by the Taliban, in a ruthless land offensive that has led many local officials to abandon their posts and flee the cities they run.
But the nation’s government, still trying to promote the impression that it has the upper hand against the Taliban, has been relatively silent on the enormous losses suffered across the country. Rather than admitting that the cities have fallen, the government has simply said that Afghanistan’s brave security forces were fighting in several capitals around the country, and that airstrikes have resulted in scores of dead Taliban fighters. ...
With cities falling and the American military campaign mostly finished, the propaganda war in Afghanistan has taken on outsize importance. For the Taliban, it is an effort to communicate a drumbeat of victories, large or small, and to create an air of inevitability about their return to power. For the government, it is an all-out effort to stave off panic, boost morale and minimize losses.
This fits with my worries:
On paper, the Afghan government can hold. But in the real world, fear of death is heightened by the American-led withdrawal. If enough time passes without a general collapse of government morale, the paper balance will win out.
But the Taliban have a window of opportunity when fear of the unknown without America holding the hand of government forces makes government officials and forces scared enough to preemptively give up.
This narrative war is part of the problem with America leaving:
I'm increasingly worried that Afghan forces won't hold long enough to regain confidence in their ability to fight without our safety net of support. "Strategic momentum" on the Taliban side is worrisome.
And already our military is saying that the focus in not holding the win in Afghanistan but making sure Afghanistan can't be used as a base to attack us at home.
If the Taliban convince enough Afghans that a Taliban win is inevitable, Afghans will consider losing now superior to fighting, dying, and losing anyway later.
If the government can keep its forces on the line fighting, in time the image the Taliban is trying to project of inevitable victory will fade. Leaving the balance of military power in the government's favor.
The Taliban tried this before when American forces handed off combat operations to Afghan forces. It failed then.
And American aircraft are still flying in support of Afghan forces. Which is good. But we scored an own-goal by doing this after announcing loudly that we're done with Afghanistan. Better to be at this point without the loud announcement that supports the Taliban propaganda rather than the government propaganda.
But we didn't. Both Trump and Biden wanted the "win" of "ending" the war. And now I worry we have too few troops on the ground and too little credibility to be confident of saving the Afghan government. But too many troops to avoid a nice massacre should the government collapse and the Taliban swarm our forces along with defectors eager to be seen on the winning side.
Yet the proclamation by the Afghan government, in accordance with American strategists, that they will focus on strategic objectives rather than fight for every district or even provincial capital worries me. In the short run this will prolong the image of advancing Taliban forces and inevitable government defeat.
I'm old enough to remember South Vietnam reacting to America's abandonment of South Vietnam in the face of the North Vietnamese armored offensive by conducting a "strategic withdrawal" from the northern provinces to focus on defending the core of South Vietnam. That led to the collapse of much of the South Vietnamese army and North Vietnam's subsequent victory.
With enough Coalition support--which we should provide--we may yet get through the danger zone and emerge with a Taliban bloodied, holding some cities, but unable to dislodge the Afghan government or keep Afghan forces from killing Taliban fighters with American help. The contractors may then return to strengthen the Afghan forces even more. The Taliban will be the ones with a morale problem as their Allah-ordained victory is once again put off. Recruiting will falter and fighters will go home.
And the war on terror will be mostly a police and intelligence problem while the Islamic world resolves its civil war.
Yet if the worst happens, we'll have dead or captured and tortured American troops paraded on camera, lose an imperfect ally that nonetheless killed jihadis so we don't have to, and witness the revival of Afghanistan as a terrorist sanctuary. The war on terror that seems largely won on the battlefield will resume in a relatively short time.
It didn't have to be this kind of a gamble if we'd sucked it up and did what was necessary.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: Battling for Afghanistan. The Taliban have more opposition to their rule than they did twenty years ago.
UPDATE: If the Taliban win, they won't break ties with al Qaeda and expel them. The obvious solution is to make sure the Afghan government defeats the Taliban. But I guess that isn't nuanced and doesn't show proper respect for the official "peace process."
UPDATE: The Taliban have captured a number of provincial capitals this last week. Some were cases of the Afghan forces bugging out. Sometimes in the face of small Taliban forces. That style of warfare happens there. Including when we invaded Afghanistan after 9/11 to help enemies of the Taliban do this to Taliban garrisons.
So I'm not panicking. I'll only really start to worry that the government can't get through this danger zone if the northern capitals aren't recaptured in fairly short order. If that happens, the gains will be more than either televised information operations or the consequences of the loss of American military power to help hold capitals in more remote areas where the Taliban recruit.
Work the problem, people.
Also, I removed a couple paragraphs clearly intended for a data dump. Oops.
