What is Russia's major malfunction?
Are we seeing logistics preparations that led to this warning?
The U.S. is raising the alarm with European Union allies that Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine as tensions flare between Moscow and the bloc over migrants and energy supplies.
It could be more pressure on Ukraine.
It could be trying to lull everybody to set up an invasion with tactical surprise.
Or maybe everybody is currently lulled by past Russian troop concentrations.
While the article doesn't mention
logistics, this article says:
During a Wednesday afternoon press conference, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby described the Russian troop massing "as unusual in size and scope" but declined to expand on that assessment.
The use of the word "size" indicates "scope" doesn't mean the size of the force. Assuming some level of precision in the word choice, does scope mean breadth of deployment or breadth of capabilities? Including logistics?
And there is this:
According to defense intelligence firm Janes, the recent Russian deployment has been covert, often taking place at night and carried out by elite ground units, in contrast to the fairly open buildup in the spring.
Still, that deployment was spotted. Surely the Russians didn't think it would really be secret.
The Russians, as is their standard operating procedure, deny an intent to invade or even that they've ever invaded Ukraine:
Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador said Thursday that Moscow will never invade Ukraine unless it is first provoked by its neighbor or someone else, then cited what he called many threats from Ukraine and provocative actions by U.S. warships in the Black Sea. ...
Polyansky was asked if Russia planned to invade Ukraine.
“Never planned, never did, and never going to do it unless we’re provoked by Ukraine, or by somebody else” and Russia’s national sovereignty is threatened, he replied.
It's attitudes like that that almost make me eager to see China dismember Russia.
Or is a visible threat against Ukraine just a means--for now--to expand the Anschluss with Belarus?
Still, perhaps a review of my pre-war speculation about a Russian invasion is in order. And this post, too. But use the Russian "go big" scenario because Russia achieved the launching points in the east back in 2014 for that kind of push.
Maybe Russia is on deadline for achieving territorial ambitions on their western border.
Remember that Russia is continuing to mass a large portion of their usable military to threaten Ukraine while China looms over the Russian territory that it seized from China during the Century of Humiliation.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
