This author thinks China will challenge Biden's resolve and wonders where it will take place:
With a new administration in the White House, there are a few potential flashpoints in the South China and East China Seas that Beijing might use to test American resolve to defend its allies and, thereby, shake regional confidence in the United States’ security guarantee. The disputed Scarborough Shoal and Thitu Island come to mind, as do Japan’s Senkaku Islands and Taiwan’s Pratas Island.
My guess is that Pratas Island is the likely target if China makes that move:
China has been exercising its navy recently and Xi Jinping told his troops to be ready for war. Is "war" going to be the seizure of Taiwan's Pratas Islands in the South China Sea?
Actually, that island was first on my radar screen in 2008. Although I didn't start mentioning it again until last summer.
Pushing hard on Scarborough Shoal, which China essentially blockades, risks entangling America because of Philippines-America treaty ties.
The same is true for targeting Japan's Senkaku Islands. And more so because America has explicitly said those islands fall under our treaty obligations.
That leaves Pratas as the likely Chinese target. It is small and lightly defended island that barely holds an airfield (plus nearby land features). So taking the island would not exceed China's military capabilities. And because it would be a small operation no mobilization and large-scale troop movements would be necessary. China could conduct a "bolt from the blue" attack under cover of maneuvers.
Even better for China, America has no formal treaty to defend Taiwan. If China quickly takes the small island without telegraphing the invasion, America has a dilemma. Liberate the minuscule island or accept it.
Taiwan will have a dilemma, too. Expand the war and risk losing a bigger war or just accept the seemingly small loss.
The Chinese will hope that a successful operation breaks American credibility to Taiwan and to our friends and formal allies.
The only way to really counter that kind of targeted information war will be for America to deploy troops to Taiwan.
Initial American forces should go in quickly under the shield of American and Japanese naval forces operating east of Taiwan and supported from Guam and Okinawa. And ideally from the Philippines.
Ultimately I'd want America air defense, anti-ship, and logistics forces on Taiwan to hold the gate open for American reinforcements should the Chinese decide to invade Taiwan.
I don't buy the idea that China can't invade Taiwan now. If China is willing to absorb the casualties to do it, China can throw an army across the strait and have a good shot at defeating the Taiwanese army.
But China doesn't even need to defeat the Taiwanese army and "win" the battle for Taiwan in one operation. As I wrote in Military Review last year, we can't allow the PLA to remain on Taiwan following a ceasefire. If China does, part two of the conquest will take place after a Chinese build up on the island bridgehead.
If America directly defends Taiwan with troops on the ground there, Taiwan must spend more on defense. We will have to insist in ways we barely pushed in regard to NATO defense spending.
A Chinese victory over Taiwan is more than a Taiwan question.
