America's economy-of-force fronts still need force. And in the case of CENTCOM, it is actually part of the main front.
The American military is comfortable with its small Middle East region footprint on the ground. Let me add that this idea is stupid:
Whether the United States pulls forces from the Middle East to counter China may well depend on the success of Biden's diplomacy with Iran[.]
One, a deal with Iran now will be worse than a deal in 2015. Back then the outline of any deal was clear. Iran would pretend not to have a nuclear weapons program; and the West would pretend to believe Iran.
How can we possibly repeat than knowing that Iran is in fact pursuing nuclear weapons notwithstanding the deal? And how can we support Iran knowing it has no interest in being a responsible regional power? As I explained in this post:
In fact, the deal expired in stages and after 15 years of shielding Iran from attack, enabling Iranian cheating by giving Iran benefits up front and caving in to Iranian threats to leave the deal if called on their cheating. The incentives to ignore cheating was clear. And the deal actually helped Iran with basic nuclear technology[.] ...
The horrible deal actually rested on the flimsy objective that the deal would turn mullah-run Iran into a successful and responsible regional power that would not violate international norms and that by implication would not want nukes. Yes, the deal's flaw of opening the path to nukes would not be taken by Iran because of Obama's goodness lessons.
The Iranians demonstrated quickly that they had no intention of being responsible as part of being a successful regional power.
Indeed, Israel demonstrated that Iran wants nukes and the deal is not an obstacle to that objective. So that expiration is important.
Will we pretend harder that Iran is a peace partner? Pulling forces out of CENTCOM would certainly make Iran feel more secure in continuing to pursue nukes under a New and Improved (Now with Ultra Biden!) Nuclear Deal.
Much as I said that reducing AFRICOM's resources could cripple our efforts in Africa without having a significant effect on Europe, stripping CENTCOM to support INDOPACOM would be counterproductive by increasing the need for even more force in CENTCOM when things get worse without America.
And it is worse. CENTCOM is already positioned to resist China. Remember that INDOPACOM encompasses the Indian Ocean where American-Indian defense ties are growing. China is trying to stretch its power all the way to the Middle East and Africa. American forces in CENTCOM can immediately interrupt Chinese lines of supply from Africa, the Middle East, and Europe beyond. And then move east to reinforce India and Australia.
Counting on Iran to reform and be good--without nukes--with a new nuclear deal is foolish beyond belief. Believing Iran can reform and be good as a basis to strip CENTCOM to reinforce INDOPACOM is just criminally stupid.
