The Biden administration gets its first two-fer by aiding our enemy Iran and harming our ally Saudi Arabia.
Biden grants his first big favor to Iran:
President Joe Biden is cutting off US support for "offensive operations" in Yemen and appointing a special envoy to push for a diplomatic solution to end the six-year civil war.
When Biden was vice president, the administration ideal was "leading from behind" where allies fought wars that benefited America. The Saudis did that and now Biden will punish them for fighting the Iran-backed Houthi in Yemen.
Lack of American support and ammunition will make Saudi air strikes less accurate and more likely to cause unintentional civilian casualties. Which helps the Houthis. Which makes Iran's nutball mullahs smile and bask in the knowledge that they always knew Allah would rescue them from the Great Satan.
The administration justification is that "This war has to end." Sure. But it would be nice if America didn't help our enemies end the war with a victory. Gosh, I sure missed "Smart Diplomacy!"
And what effect does Biden's diplomacy have on the war on terror there--which Obama began? Will wins like this still take place?
The leader of Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen has been under arrest since October, and the terror group has suffered an erosion of its ranks caused by desertions, according to a United Nations report released Thursday.
Amazingly, some welcome this Biden decision. "Get out of this war"? Really? We are not "in" the war. The idea that humanitarian concerns bolster Biden's move ignores the role the Houthis have played in making the humanitarian crisis worse.
The Biden decision means Iran will have a proxy force along the lines of its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. This time along the Red Sea oil shipping routes. Which is an area of conflict that has been building for four decades as Gulf Arab countries and Iran spar over oil route vulnerability:
Iran's recent forays into the Mediterranean through the Red Sea and Suez Canal should warn us of another option Iran might have to interrupt oil traffic. While we focus on the Strait of Hormuz, we could get blind-sided by an Iranian attempt to interdict the Red Sea and/or Suez Canal. Iran could lay mines in the Red Sea and increase the panic level in the West that could lead us to end a confrontation with Iran short of defeating Iran.
In 1984, Libya mined the Red Sea in support of their then-ally Iran. It was a one-off so we could handle the mine sweeping problem (with Operation Intense Look). Also, the Strait of Hormuz was still open for business despite the still-low key Tanker War going on between Iran and Iraq during their war from 1980 to 1988.
Remember, too, that Iran has courted Eritrea as an ally. Why else do that if not to gain a position to interfere with what we hope is our trump card of non-Persian Gulf oil routes to guard against an Iranian attempt to close the primary Strait of Hormuz route?
Remember that Iran doesn't actually want to fight a war in Yemen. A cessation of fighting that gullible people will call "peace" suits Iran just fine. The Saudis will be distracted from the Strait of Hormuz by having to deal with Iran's growing capabilities in their supposedly safe rear area.
And all because Biden will help Iran entrench in northern Yemen. Reset!
Bravo. I'm sure Iran will display the proper gratitude such generosity demands. Or not.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: Thoughts on administration moves:
Yemen is a strategic country. It can project force into Saudi Arabia and Oman, or allow more powerful allies to do so. More important, from Yemen’s location a hypothetical, stronger power could close the Bab el Mandeb strait, and in doing so close the Red Sea. Access to the Red Sea is vital: In 1967, Egypt closed the Tiran Straits, blocking Israel from the Red Sea and triggering the Six-Day War.
Yemen is in no position to block the straits itself, but an outside party seeking to sow regional chaos might be. And if it did, it could draw Egypt, Israel and Ethiopia into a conflict they don’t want, and threaten Saudi Arabia and Oman, thereby weakening the Arab position in the Persian Gulf.
Iran is not in Yemen for its health.
George Friedman calls Biden's decisions mere gestures rather than susbtantive policies. Let's hope so.
But I fear the worst.
UPDATE: I'm sure there are a lot of people in the Biden administration shocked at this event:
Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Wednesday targeted an airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia with bomb-laden drones, causing a civilian plane on the tarmac to catch fire, the kingdom's state television reported. The attack threatened to escalate Yemen's grinding war.
Shocking. I know.
UPDATE: From Strategypage:
Another Shia rebel cruise missile (UAV on automatic and armed with explosives) was intercepted by Saudi air defenses at it crossed the border heading for a city or military bases. This is the sixth such attack in the last five days. Shia rebel ground attacks continued as did extortion of foreign aid to finance the Shia rebels. The rebels continue trying to disrupt Red Sea shipping by using naval mines and remotely controlled speedboats loaded with explosives.
Three days ago, the U.S. cancelled its designation of the Iran-backed Shia rebels as international terrorists and cancelled some smart bomb shipments to Saudi Arabia and paused the sale of F-35 stealth fighters to the UAE. This was meant to encourage the Saudis to negotiate an end to the Yemen civil war. Iran and the Shia rebels interpreted this as a victory because the Americans were making it easier for Iran to continue making attacks on Saudi Arabia via the Shia rebels who control portions of the Saudi-Yemen border.
Will the Biden administration take this early failure of their diplomacy as a signal to support allies and oppose enemies?
Or will the enemy action persuade the Biden team to make even more concessions?
