Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Of Babies and Bath Water

Let's hope that American defense policies aren't defined as being  the opposite of Trump policies.

I was going to read this author's piece about going from Trump to Biden policies, but when I got to this I stopped: 

Two leading candidates for disposal are already clear: Trump’s transactional approach toward long-standing allies such as Germany and his withdrawals of U.S. forces from conflict zones based on strict timelines.
The first issue is frankly stupid and ignores that alliances are transactional agreements in a significant manner. That's why countries ally. It is not a matter of "doing good" absent power considerations. No alliance actions for "good" can persist for long in the absence of real security benefits.

Trump complained about allies who spent so little on defense that they were consumers of defense ties and not producers. And the benchmark Trump pushed was one created in the Obama administration.

That failure to have enough defense capability is why I initially rejected Sweden's interest in joining NATO. Sweden is starting to step up and earn consideration. Now they will be NATO-worthy

Being nice and democratic alone wasn't enough. You didn't hear Trump complaining about British, Japanese, or Polish defense efforts, to name a few. 

As for the second candidate for disposal, the author has a point. But that was the Obama approach, too. 

And conditions did allow for Trump's deep reductions in Iraq and Afghanistan recently unlike the earlier withdrawals in Iraq in 2011 and in Afghanistan before 2016.

I don't want a total withdrawal from either country, as I've said. But conditions have changed. 

As for German troop levels, as long as troops remain in Europe instead of in Germany I don't mind. What is important is sustaining key base capabilities in Germany. 

I suspect Biden will screw up far more than he'll fix.