Ukraine remains at risk despite Russia's failure to break Ukrainian independence in 2014 or to erode Ukrainian will to resist since then.
Ukraine's Zelensky is fighting corruption and pro-Russian media. He isn't winning.
Ukraine needs to do more to fight corruption and the West needs to help/push Ukraine to build rule of law.
As I've mentioned more than once, if Ukraine remains just a smaller version of Russia, Ukraine will lose their struggle to remain independent of Russian domination or outright control.
Only by becoming more like the West can Ukraine build the economic and military power to remain a free country, just as a free West built on rule of law defeated the USSR.
Remember, Russia is fine with a corrupt Ukraine. It allowed Russia to weaken and dominate Ukraine's government before 2014, and it will allow Russia to buy influence and control in Ukraine once again.
Stalemate, even tilted toward Ukraine as I noted in this post, in the Donbas won't matter if the real fight for Ukraine takes place in the secret bank accounts of Ukrainian officials and business people.
This is all really depressing.
The good news is that NATO helps Ukrainian defense efforts:
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg repeated the defense bloc's commitment to Ukraine on Wednesday in a press conference with the nation's prime minister, as he noted a buildup of Russian troops in the region and importance of the Black Sea.
But it should not be the only bright spot. A Ukraine that can defeat corruption could become too strong for Russia to conquer or pressure regardless of what Russia does. Now Ukraine's independence relies on Russia not growing far more powerful.
Will Ukraine risk a major escalation against pro-Russian elements within Ukraine to change the bad trends?
But if military aspects remain the only bright spot, I begin to wonder if Ukraine will roll the dice. Will Ukraine try to seize ground in the Donbas region with a major escalation that counts on Russia not escalating in return?
If Ukraine merely trains its weapons on Russia's important bases at Sevastopol to deter a Russian escalation to full war, could Ukraine win that gamble?
