Don't assume China is destined to dominate the planet. Or that such a failure to dominate means the danger will recede.
China looks forward to becoming the largest economy in the world during the next few years and a military superpower a decade after that. Longer term the outlook is less promising. Time is not on China’s side. There are numerous examples of this. One of the more obvious is the shrinking Chinese work force and population in general. The overall population growth rate peaked in 2016 at 0.59 percent and has been declining ever since. There is a worse problem with the shrinking labor force because of working age population declining. All this began in 2014 and will continue for decades. The biggest problem, though, is the growing shortage of workers. As the population ages, all those one-child families means there will be more elderly than the economy, and the shrinking workforce, can effectively support.
That's what I've been saying for a long time:
Let's imagine China and America in the year 2100, 89 years from now.
China's population is estimated to peak in about 2030 at 1.393 billion. By 2100, China will decline to 0.941 billion people. America, at a Census Bureau middle projection will tip the scales at 0.571 billion. At the high end projection, we'll have 1.182 billion people. Note that the projection made 11 years ago for today's population was 302,300,000 and the high end was given as 314,846,00. We are actually at 311,308,000, so we are closer to the high end prediction than the middle projection.
With all the caveats about projecting that far into the future, we could have from 60% of China's population to more people than China! Will China have twice the GDP per-capita as America then? With a population older than our population? Because if not, China's lead in gross GDP will not last and we will regain that title well before 2100 rolls around (unless India is the one to surpass us in gross GDP).
The biggest danger to peace may come from China trying to strike hard while their power is at its peak.
Will the Chinese Communist Party think their chances for continuing to rule China are best by rolling the dice or accepting relative decline?
Let's be careful out there.
