The Turks under Erdogan raise their eyes to former imperial horizons.
Among the many foreign-policy challenges on Europe's plate, few are as pressing as the escalating tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey's neo-Ottoman pretensions are threatening European interests. Because Turkey has chosen its own path, the task now is to secure coexistence, rather than integration.
The TDS remains strong, however. After blaming Trump for supposed weakened trans-Atlantic relations, the author apparently doesn't see the election of Biden as repairing them. The good left-wing Euro propagandist wants a strong EU regardless of who is in the White House. Huh.
But I digress.
The EU never had any intention of integrating Turkey even before Erdogan tried to revive the Ottoman caliphate. A transition to coexisting with a competitor means that all the Turks welcomed into Europe when Europe pretended it wanted to integrate Turkey could be a potential fifth column. Europe isn't good at assimilation.
This paper takes a look at the Aegean Sea, EEZs, and Cyprus disputes that divide Greece from Turkey. And that doesn't even address Russia's play for influence.
But for all of Erdogan's grand ambitions, Turkey has to contemplate that the Greek-Turkish dispute is likely to be a NATO-Turkish dispute if Erdogan's Turkey presses too hard.
What's with the Turkish-Pakistani entente? Is it purely defense industry related? Does Turkey want nuclear missile technology from Pakistan? Is it aimed at a third party like Iran? Or Saudi Arabia? And where does Azerbaijan fit into that entente? Azerbaijan would certainly like support against Armenia and Iran. Turkey certainly pushes India away with this alignment.
There is a response to Turkish ambitions. Greek-UAE military and diplomatic ties create an anti-Turkish alignment between Greece and Gulf Arab states. I mentioned Greek and UAE military ties aimed at Turkey:
The UAE and Greece decided to exercise their aircraft together on Crete, in a sign of unity against Turkey.
Add a much more recent UAE-Cyprus military agreement to increase the pressure on Turkey:
Cyprus and the UAE signed a military cooperation agreement. That's odd you may think. But that's because the story oddly doesn't mention Turkey, which both countries have an interest in blocking. I'm sure this is a little revenge by the UAE for Turkey's foray into the Persian Gulf with a base in Qatar, as I noted in this post about Erdogan's effort to restore Ottoman glories.
Israel is involved in the Greece-UAE ties. So add another point of common Arab-Israel alignment beyond opposing Iran. Further, the alignment may pull France and possibly NATO to oppose Turkey more broadly.
Note too that Qatar's disputes with other Gulf Arab states is heightened by Qatar's military ties to Turkey. Which I've mentioned, linking this article about Turkey voting to base troops in Qatar.
Also, while I have dismissed the UAE's need for F-35s to combat Iran, I did not consider Turkey as a UAE potential foe. Especially when you consider the UAE would not be able to project much power to the eastern Mediterranean, F-35s would be very useful indeed. Is the Biden administration review of the F-35 sale a gift to Iran's mullahs or Erdogan? Or it's a twofer of futile outreach.
Erdogan is pushing other countries to notice him. But mostly in a bad way. Still, Erdogan has Pakistan. Now the new black sheep ally of America and the old black sheep ally link arms.
Winning!
