Despite the obvious mutual hostility between Russia and NATO exacerbated by Putin's invasion of Ukraine, will NATO's aid to non-NATO Ukraine convince non-NATO Russia it is safe to pivot to face China?
After the Cold War there were two arguments about NATO alienating Russia that seemed particularly wrong in the entire genre of believing Russian paranoia could be appeased reassured in some way. One was the argument that NATO shouldn't have accepted membership requests from former Soviet vassals. The other was that NATO should have invited Russia into the defense organization.
I've argued against the idea that NATO expansion was a mistake. Let me focus on the Russia-in-NATO angle and a possible way forward in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In my view, Russia could never have been a member of NATO:
So don't become confused and believe that concessions to Russia, like New START, have any effect on Russia's views of the West. They believe what they believe, and facts be damned. Any lessening of tensions is a tactical reset by Moscow to get more from the West while they can get it.
Not to worry, however. The real threat to Russia will eventually deprive the Russians of their fantasy-based fiction of their victimhood at the hands of the West. Then there may be a real strategic reset with the West.
Of course, by the time it is obvious to even the most paranoid NATO-focused Russian that they've been ignoring the real threat of China, nobody in NATO will want to let Russia join NATO and push the alliance's front line all the way to the Amur River. Shoot, a lot weren't all that happy about pushing it east of the Elbe.
I find it foolish to even think that extending NATO defense guarantees to Russia against China on the Amur River was a good idea. Russia needs western Russia to be a safe rear area in order to pivot to Asia, where the real threat to Russian territory is. Russia thought it could impose its will on NATO to get that safe area with a combination of buffer states and a broken NATO. But what if a functioning NATO is the best bet for Russia?
By invading Ukraine, Russia has undermined that supposed buffer, invigorated NATO, and ruined the military reputation Putin has spent so much propaganda elevating. Russia clearly didn't think NATO would arm Ukraine or that it didn't
matter. But NATO (and other democracies) are eagerly shipping arms to
Ukraine despite Ukraine being outside of NATO. And despite Russia's nuclear weapons.
Is it possible with some time--under a successor to Putin--that the Russians will realize that if it embraces rather than demonizes NATO that the same kind of non-alliance help could allow Russia hold its Far East against a China not content with Russia merely kneeling before the Middle Kingdom like a proper vassal? Despite China's nuclear power?
I'm looking for a path out of pointless Russian hostility toward NATO. If Russia loses but doubles down on hostility to Ukraine and NATO, worse may come down the line. So take this not as anything remotely a prediction but as a stab at imagining something good coming out of this horror.
Although obviously, prior diplomacy was not some deep plan to achieve this. But maybe Indian diplomacy to end the Winter War of 2022 could start the process of flipping Russia.
[NOTE: I provide war updates at this post.]
