The Winter War of 2022 doesn't prove "asymmetrical" means are the wave of the future. Too many think it is a mark of success to efficiently kill the enemy while losing the war.
Yes, Western and Ukrainian anti-tank weapons have performed well against the ineptly used Russian armored vehicles. But after inflicting that attrition on Russia's army, Ukraine is shifting to heavy armor and artillery to defeat the Russian invasion and eject the invaders.
The whole effort to pressure Taiwan into buying cheap "asymmetrical" weapons takes the wholly logical and defensible truth about combined arms and joint warfare, but distorts it into a suicidal Taiwanese strategy of presuming to know how many dead PLA troopers will deter the CCP from invading and destroying Taiwan.
These authors resist that myopia, arguing that "reorienting the island to rely on light arms or asymmetrical strategy could significantly weaken the traditional deterrence that Taiwan’s forces could provide against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)." Yes!
Inflicting attrition on the invaders must be for the point of weakening and then actually destroying the invaders (quoting an article in a post of mine 6 months ago):
America, Taiwan and any other partners willing to enter the fray would need to concentrate on stopping the invasion, putting every available hindrance in the way of China’s armada and aircraft. Think sea mines and anti-ship and anti-air missiles launched from various platforms on land, at sea and in the air. The defenders would also need to eliminate or eject any Chinese forces that managed to land. [emphasis added]
Taiwan should not be led astray by the belief that a relatively inexpensive silver bullet solution will stop China. Taiwan must be able to drive the PLA into the sea.
UPDATE: If China still has the same casualty threshold it had a couple decades ago, the Russian experience may not deter China.
UPDATE: Chinese options short of full invasion. I suspect the Pratas option is most likely.
In the bigger picture, this author says China could start a war without being confident of victory; and that China would accept a longer multi-stage military conflict.
I already discussed the latter in regard to driving the PLA into the sea. As to the former, exactly. Xi Jinping's calculations will include factors we don't consider.
NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.
