Getting to know you. Getting to know all about you: "The war in Ukraine has produced another bonanza of Russian weapons for the U.S. Air Force to scrutinize. For over half a century the U.S. Air Force has been on the lookout for Russian aircraft, missiles and electronic systems that were operational or could be made operational for testing. Ukraine is currently providing everything but aircraft to evaluate." The Ukrainians get the evaluations.
We know what the Democrats want to result from their farcical J6 show trial don't we?
Well, yes: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to force the West to end its sanctions by causing a widespread famine, Yale historian Timothy Snyder argues." The refugees will then flow to Europe. This is a Russian counter-attack on Europe for supporting Ukraine. All the more reason to help Ukraine win rather than try to engineer a stalemate.
American Marines and Swedish troops practice to defend (or recapture) Gotland Island in the Baltic Sea. Russian control would interfere with sea support for the Baltic states on the front line of NATO.
I don't think it is true that the Russian invasion is tilting in Russia's favor. Russia had to shrink their offensive from Kiev to Kherson to the Donbas and now to the Severodonetsk salient. By focusing firepower on that narrow front Russia is indeed grinding forward. But at the price of high casualties in its own already depleted army. Like any war, the outcome may be on the knife's edge where a victory path could fall on either side.
Chinese-Russian friction in Central Asia. Russia's difficulties are an opportunity for China. China's inroads may not be a threat to Russian influence now. Eventually they will be. And it will all depend on whether China decides a "synchronized" vision no longer suits it.
Actually defending schoolchildren. Via Instapundit.
I've noted that the fact that Russian turrets blowing off when hit is no proof tanks are obsolete. I said that the weakness makes the tanks vulnerable to catastrophic kills. Without the weakness the tank would still be knocked out. Still, the Russian weakness means that the crew is less likely to survive. Which is a major problem separately from level of tank kill.
"Ferocious" Covid-19 outbreak in Peking. China did a lot of damage to the world by unleashing--through secrecy, incompetence, and/or malice--the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic on the world. It looks like those factors may even out the damage. Tip to Instapundit.
I just looked at the stock market. Please excuse me while I go change my armor.
I'm not impressed by claims that the J6 Committee has enough to indict Trump. Indicting is easy. And it is a way to make the process be the punishment even if the evidence for conviction is insufficient or even flimsy. Which is an abuse of power but all too common.
Moqtada al Sadr's bloc resigned from Iraq's parliament: "Iraqi leaders vowed Monday to move forward with efforts to form a
government following the shocking resignation of 73 lawmakers from
parliament during a prolonged political impasse." Does this provoke street violence by seemingly opening the path for pro-Iran legislators to form a government after the long impasse? I just want ballots rather than bullets to resolve this. If governments are no more lasting than Cold War Italy's, so what if that is the case? But in the back of my mind, my old worry pokes me.
Fine, they need space: "Space Marines may sound like a far-off concept, but in some ways, they are already here. That’s because your average Marine infantry grunts would have a hard time doing their job these days without a constellation of satellites more than 1,000 miles overhead." But don't insult my intelligence by calling them "Space Marines" until we have SMODs.
The Air Force now has an F-35 "aggressor squadron" for the Blue teams to practice fighting 5th generation stealth planes. Downgraded for frontal stealth only, for now, I assume. Are these early-production F-35s that aren't really ready for combat?
No! Way! "Sunday News Shows Spent Zero Minutes Covering Attempted Murder of Brett Kavanaugh." When someone from The Other does something horrible, that represents everyone from The Other. When someone on your side does something horrible, its just an aberration, so move along, nothing to see. You know where the media stands by what it covers and what it doesn't cover.
How did Russia cause gasoline prices to rise so much when it isn't clear that Russian oil is off the market even a little bit? Just who isn't buying it? Tip to PJ Media.
The Army celebrated its 247th birthday last week. It shares the day with Flag Day.
How Russia is "saving" Ukrainians from "Nazis": "The Russian occupation is brutal by any standard, especially in areas taken during the first weeks of the invasion. These are mainly in the south and east. Areas Russia took in the north were retaken after about a month. This left behind very visible evidence of Russian looting, murder, wanton destruction and a hasty retreat that left behind many dead Russians."
Huh: "Iran likes to blame Israel for attacks on its nuclear program but there have been so many of them recently that Iran has to admit that Israel has a large network of agents in Iran. Worse yet, most of these operatives are Iranians who oppose the current government and the nuclear weapons program."
Pelosi's dog whistle signal to kill conservative Supreme Court justices? If right-wing violence was really such a big threat this bill would have been passed already. Via Instapundit.
A B-1 bomber task force deployed to Guam. Please tell me they carry naval mines and anti-ship missiles.
I'm told America should have reasonably enlightened autocrats to push a green agenda. Wait. What? Via Instapundit.
China crushed Hong Kong. Remember when we looked on with hope for pro-freedom protesters as China locked down the city and suppressed freedom of speech and assembly? Who knew they were just a bit ahead of us? We can still defend our freedoms. Perhaps Hong Kong will regain hope, too.
What fresh Hell is this?! At this point I want to believe our government is effing things up on purpose.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russia has walked away from the Nato-Russia Founding Act with its invasion of Ukraine, says Nato's Jens Stoltenberg." Putin's legacy is a weakened Russian army, a strengthened NATO, and a China that calls the shots in their frenemy relationship.
What will Turkey get for allowing Finland and Sweden in NATO? I assumed we were haggling over the price. Yet Turkey is reaching out to Venezuela and Iran, reducing my hopes for repairing the relationship. Emphasize the "verify" now.
Assad has recovered enough from the multi-war to think about retaking Idlib province where jihadis under Turkey's protection still hold the region. With Russia focused on Ukraine does Iran have an opening to cement its position in Syria?
From the "Well, Duh" files: " Russia’s war in Ukraine is making clear to the U.S. Department of Defense that it must get logistics and sustainment right in the Pacific theater[.]" We've been so focused on northeast Asia for decades that we abandoned the ability to fight in the rest of the Pacific region. Sadly, logistics always take second place in favor of one more shiny new thing in the arsenal.
A line in the water: "The Taiwan Strait is an international waterway and Taiwan's government
supports U.S. warships transiting it, the foreign ministry said on
Tuesday, rebuffing claims from China to exercise sovereignty over the
strategic passage." China's sovereignty position is dangerous. Best to nip that in the bud:
That 70's show: We'll figure it out. But not yet: "If my model follows course, the political system will not be able to
solve the problems before the end of the decade. We will of course blame
the politicians for what happens, as that is an American tradition. The
irresistible process creates the pain, and the miracles demanded by the
public will make things worse. The politicians will be blamed. But it
clears out the system and readies us for the future."
This sounds like the proto-imperial European Union even if it is about Russia's current if shrunken empire: "What is the difference between a federation and an empire? A federation is defined by free entrance and exit of its members. Empires are maintained by force, while federations do not oppose their self-dissolution." The EU tried the force of entangling cheese regulations to keep Britain from exiting. Will the EU use force on the continent when another tries to leave?
American shipbuilding problems.
Scaring China? "The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, the only CSGs currently deployed in the eastern Pacific, together with amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7)[.]" Or conveniently deployed for destruction by China? I think of our carriers as the cavalry of 1914 in sea control roles. Useful to hunt down the wounded and finish them off after defeating an enemy; but worse than useless to reach that point.
Hostage standoff: The Air Force created this F-35 problem in an effort to get rid of the A-10.
Not content to be the biggest moron ever to serve in the Senate or as secretary of state, John Kerry seeks to be a Renaissance Moron in all areas. Except his skill in marrying rich women, of course.
No! Way! "French President Emanuel Macron is calling on neighboring nations to support the continent’s defense-industrial base before looking abroad." Never let a crisis go to waste.
The beatings will continue until gasoline prices improve. God help us.
The Canada-Denmark struggle over Hans Island in the Nares Strait is over: "Officials from both countries, as well as Greenland, signed an agreement on Tuesday to resolve the long-standing fracas — the last remaining disagreement over a land border in the Arctic — with the Solomonic solution of dividing the island in two. Denmark gets about 60 percent of the island; Canada gets the rest." Word of the fate of the whiskey is not forthcoming.
France captured a senior Mali ISIL terrorist. May his interrogation and information exploitation lead to dead jihadis.
The Axis of Steal isn't that impressive, to me.
Medvedev mocked EU leaders visiting Ukraine. Big talk from Putin's fluffer.
The WHO will change the name of Monkeypox because the "nomenclature of this virus being African is not only inaccurate but is also discriminatory and stigmatizing[.]" I'm confused. How does "monkey" nomenclature imply African? I'm really comforted by how our betters are focused like a laser on the real problems.
Focused like a laser on real problems. Via Instapundit.
Pulling out bricks in the virtual walls.
Meanwhile in the war on terror that losing the Afghanistan campaign didn't end: "U.S.-led coalition forces captured a senior Islamic State leader in a military operation in northern Syria on Thursday, the coalition said."
Meanwhile in North Korea: "New satellite imagery may indicate North Korea is preparing to conduct another nuclear test at its Punggye-ri test site and could do so at any time[.]" One day North Korea will have actual nuclear weapons rather than devices that require hundreds of scientists and thousands of technicians to detonate.
Do we know how good the Chinese military is? An excellent question. But heck, I wonder if we know how good our own military is.
LOL. I was about to add an entry here and then noticed I'd published a post on the exact topic today. Scheduling posts well in advance has drawbacks.
All Political Violence Matters. But not to Democrats.
Battling inflation. My advice is that if you start to fight inflation, fight inflation. People need to believe the government is serious if we expect this to work. I suspect there will be Federal Reserve half measures under political pressure that neither fight inflation nor prevent higher unemployment and recession. Tip to Instapundit.
Latino Democrats are furious at the national party for losing a special election in Texas to a Republican Mexican-American (via Instapundit). Gosh, I wonder why?
China's subliminal offensive against the Philippines.
The KC-46A clusterfuck. I think this refueling aircraft program predates this blog. And still it does not work. Even its additional toilet was effed up.
I assume China wants to obscure Hong Kong's history as a British territory in order to deny that Western political rights ever gained a foothold in Hong Kong before China stomped on them. I'm not claiming Britain's full history of control was a freedom agenda. But before Britain left, they did introduce freedom.
Break it up for parts: "The FBI knew the Trump-Russia collusion narrative was utter bunk even as it suggested otherwise to Congress, the courts and the public early in 2017." The Bureau has lost our trust. Tip to Instapundit.
Who believed a Clinton pledge to refrain from lying? Tip to Instapundit.
Fire them all. They are clearly not needed. Private businesses should do what they want. But government civil service employees clearly can't be trusted to work from home. Tip to Instapundit.
Putin "says Russia's decision to start it's so called 'special
military operation' was difficult - but was 'forced on us'. Yes, the Fuck-Up Fairy was persuasive:
The man who claimed he is only reclaiming territory that the Russian empire once had said this?? "Western nations still think in the last century’s terms - treating other states as colonies." Putin: Making Russia Grate Again.
Russia says it is surviving sanctions just fine. Some amount of that is bravado. But I don't know how bad it is. Before the war I was skeptical of sanctions. I was honestly shocked when people said it was going to be super effective: "Are sanctions really going to wreck Russia's economy? Via Instapundit. I admit I was skeptical that sanctions could seriously harm a large country in the long run. We'll see if a long war is even an option for Russia, I guess. But if sanctions are really that effective, Russia might decide nukes are the only weapon to end them." What do I know, I thought. I still don't know what the real situation is.
I don't see China being the winner of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. From the angle of Russia being a useful ally for China, Russia has crippled their military, enlarged and strengthened European NATO, and made it necessary for Russia to focus their limited military power in Europe even if Russia wins this war against Ukraine. China gets a vassal, but how useful is the modern version of Mussolini's Italy? Still, China could be the winner if you consider Russia and China are frenemies and not allies.
Ukraine wants tanks, among other things, from the West. I've read that Ukraine has lost up to half of various types of its heavy weapons. We hear of Russian tanks suffering catastrophic turret-popping destruction. What about Ukraine's tanks that are the same basic design? Are they suffering the same fate to Russian anti-tank weapons? I assume so. But maybe Ukraine handles its tanks more proficiently. I have not seen reports on that angle.
A possible thaw in Saudi-Turkish relations? They are rivals for influence in the Middle East. But they can share a hatred of Shia Iran whose nuclear ambitions threaten both of them.
China launched their third aircraft carrier--of the same scale as an American one--but it isn't a game changer. Sure. It's playing the old game. On the bright side it may indicate that China wants to patrol its trading and vassal empire rather than go to war. Carriers are good for the former but not the latter. But building super carriers when smaller carriers would suffice for that confuses me. China counts on sinking our carriers with their anti-access/area denial weapons. Do they think we can't return the favor?
Boris Johnson wants Britons to avoid Ukraine fatigue. That's a potential problem for the West in general.
Why isn't Biden unleashing American energy production by at least reversing his orders to hobble it?
Can the Winter War of 2022 be understood with Korean War template? Interesting. That hadn't occurred to me. Better that than the Vietnam War template.
Team work: "A U.S. Army Patriot missile defense system and an Air Force F-35A Lightning II aircraft combined Wednesday to shoot down a dummy cruise missile over the Pacific, according to an Army spokesman." When sensor and shooter are separate.
After the Goons of August Russian invasion of Georgia, I called for REPORPOL. NATO seems to want that: "'What often takes time is to move heavy stuff, to move the armored vehicles, ammunition and supplies,' but pre-positioning more weapons and equipment would make it 'much easier and faster to reinforce when needed,' Stoltenberg said[.]"
State Department: "Nations that side with Vladimir Putin will inevitably find themselves on the wrong side of history." I see this nonsense is back. Enemies have their own side of history. Pray they don't write the history.
Reaction: "The war by the Kremlin in Ukraine since February has led allies to rethink strategies and to agree that NATO forces should be present in greater numbers on that flank." Adding NATO troops to the defense of the Baltic states is too risky.
America's island-hopping strategy: "Rather than invading and clearing islands such as Saipan and Tinian, U.S. troops would likely set up airfields and air defense systems on them and then defend those islands against Chinese air and missile attacks, said Dean Cheng, a China expert with the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington, D.C." Good. Beats invading and clearing.
Celebrate freedom won at high cost: "[June 19th] has
been celebrated annually around the country since 1865 when a Union
General arrived in Galveston, Texas, and informed the enslaved African
Americans that the Confederacy had lost the war and that they were free
as per the Emancipation Proclamation, which was inked in 1863. In many
parts of the country, the proclamation was not implemented until the
army enforced it." I now fly the American flag on this patriotic holiday, joining Memorial Day, Flag Day (Army's birthday), July 4th, September 11th, and Veterans Day. The funny thing is, I'm sure Democrats supported this national holiday hoping conservatives would reject it because Democrats proposed it. I say, embrace freedom from government control.
The commander of the British army alerts his troops that they now must be prepared to fight on the continent: "The new head of the British Army has set out a rallying cry to his troops: to be ready to confront the renewed threat from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine." I did say I'd miss the British Army of the Rhine. Ah, events.
I'm not going to lie, I thought 20,000 dead Russian soldiers would have had an effect inside Russia by now. Secrecy, government oppression, and perhaps a disproportionate number of casualties far away in the provinces among non-ethnic Russian soldiers are stifling that reaction. Sooner or later that "special military operation" wall crumbles and Russia sees the pain of war, right? And Western intelligence agencies are chipping away at that wall, right?
Explain to me again who the racists who don't think Black live matter are? Tip to Instapundit.
"Liberté Obé, égalité, fraternité".
But perhaps I share too much:
Where does the line form to get uncancelled for proposing this explanation in early 2020? "Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of WHO had recently confided to a senior European politician that the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, as reported by Daily Mail."
One sense that Russia might "win" this war that is decimating its military and reputation is that it might wreck Ukraine for a generation. But after a generation Russia will have lost the war clearly, if nothing else changes that path. Time does that. In 1955, the Korean War had America "winning" a poor, authoritarian, war-wrecked country. By 1985 the war looked like a shaky draw. Today, with South Korea an advanced democracy able to contribute to Western security rather than be only a consumer of Western security, we won the Korean War.
Russia beats its chest and flings poo in Danish territorial waters.
