An empire can get so large that it drains the center more than it sustains the empire (imperial overstretch). What happens when an already strained empire accelerates the cost of empire in a flailing attempt to enlarge the empire? Amazingly, Russia has a way out of this dilemma yet won't seize it.
Could Russia's apparent reliance on non-Russian cannon fodder open fissures in the rump Russian empire?
Russia’s 2022 re-invasion of Ukraine has damaged not only bilateral relations between the two majority–Eastern Slavic neighbors but also—perhaps inadvertently—destabilized ties, links, goodwill, and mutual trust between the Russian periphery and the center, on the one hand, and between certain ethnic groups within the Russian Federation, on the other.
The Russian military is certainly less effective because of ethnic tensions, it seems. The problem could get much worse.
Still, in the short run having dead non-ethnic Russian soldiers rather than dead ethnic Russian soldiers may lessen the potential of ethnic Russian civilians openly turning against Putin.
But that will just delay the reaction and not stop it.
Russia is squeezing the regions to pay for rebuilding the empire in the west. Which was dumb even before Ukraine prompted at least some Western reaction.
Russia could fragment a third time, I think, if the virtual colonies believe taxation without representation is intolerable.
If that happens, is the Grand Duchy of Moscow far behind?
Can you imagine the kind of money Moscow is going to need to rebuild after this war regardless of the outcome? Are the regions--especially in the resource-rich Far East--going to be eager to send even more of their money for the results Putin got?
And adding to Putin's problem, reminding NATO members why the alliance exists isn't going to help slow down Russia's decline and further fragmentation.
If the Russians had any sense, they'd make peace with their major fossil fuel customers in Europe (plus America) and turn to face the real threat to Russian territorial integrity. This would allow Russia to downgrade their military power facing Europe and reduce the strain on the imperial holdings paying for Putin's pointless struggle in the west.
Sadly, Russia seems only able to use their energy exports as a means of leverage against countries they've made out to be enemies. Germany's hope to use energy trade to forge ties with Russia wasn't dumb--until you factor in Russian paranoia.
Could a Russia bled by its war against Ukraine finally come to its senses and stop pretending that NATO is a threat to Russia?
UPDATE: Russia's rump empire may not survive this war:
What happened to the Russian Empire? It disintegrated at the end of an imperialist war. What happened to the Soviet Union? It disintegrated at the end of the Cold War. What will happen to the Russian Federation?
It does amuse me in a Holy-crap-this-empire-has-nukes sort of way that in college a teaching assistant marked me down for stating the wholly obvious fact that the USSR was an empire. And here we are.
UPDATE: Yeah, good luck with that:
A Russian lawmaker on Wednesday said Moscow will look to repeal its recognition of the independence of former Soviet nations like Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in an attempt to revoke their NATO protections.
That's not how it works. That's not how any of it works.
NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.
