Sunday, June 05, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

Good news from India: "Since 2013 India has been designing and building its own surface warships. India has long wanted to build its own warships but that required shipyards, workers and management that could do the work. It took nearly two decades for that to happen in India."

Potemkin airplane, as one would come to expect by now

Why I don't assume a coup in Russia would necessarily be helpful: "Discontent about the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine is growing inside Russia—but it’s not coming from dissidents, who have been jailed or forced into exile. Instead, it’s coming from hawkish veterans groups and military bloggers in Russia, who are expressing growing agitation with the slow pace of the war, with some calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to institute national mobilization."

Like his former (?) boss in 2009, Biden won't say anything to support the protesters (via Instapundit): "Protests against the legitimacy of Iran’s Islamic Republic continue to sweep across the vast country triggered by a multitude of reasons including rising food prices, the collapse of a twin-tower apartment building killing at least 29 people (with more dead feared under the rubble) and a considerable loathing of the clerical regime." Because Biden and his handlers love the mullahs. So Biden will speak no words of support validating their distress and justified hopes. Biden would prefer the mullahs quickly suppress the protests so he can get on with reviving the horrible Iran nuclear deal.

News from Captain Obvious--The Taliban and al Qaeda have a close relationship: "The Taliban's control of Afghanistan is guaranteeing the 'continued personal survival' of Al Qaeda, an expert has claimed, with a United Nations report supporting the claims." That's what a sanctuary will do for you.

Is stupidity on the rise?

Well, pistols can "reach into Russia": "The United States will not supply Ukraine with long-range rocket systems that can reach into Russia, President Joe Biden says." I assume Biden means we are (likely) sending normal battlefield rockets and not the larger longer-range versions. Of course, Russia fires long-range rockets and missiles at Ukraine. When the article says the system can fire rockets hundreds of miles away, that is the larger rocket. It is not fired in barrages. Even the smaller, shorter-range rockets tend not to be used that way. Dumb rockets are fired in barrages. 

This is not Hungary's finest hour: "As we've been covering today, European Union countries are struggling to agree on a future ban on Russian oil imports, with Hungary the main opponent." And not just on this issue.

Will efforts to export Ukrainian grain work out?  Russia wants the leverage provided by preventing safe passage. What can move Russia?

No shit, super geniuses: "Tehran’s government also continued to stonewall a probe into uranium traces sampled at several undeclared locations, [IAEA] inspectors wrote in a second 10-page document." From the beginning I wrote about how the deal was made for Iranian stalling tactics to delay even accusing Iran of violations

Speaking of our Iranian friends-we-haven't-made-yet: "At least five missiles hit a sprawling Iraqi army base hosting U.S. troops in the country's western desert Monday, two Iraqi security officials said."

I saw a young man walking alone one day in 86-degree heat--wearing a mask. I don't get it.

The Taliban are effing up their country while Pakistan pays the price for "winning" the war.

Recon and decoy drones.

Will Russia use AI weapons in Ukraine? Who thinks they'd work better than the biological intelligence waging war now?

The Navy has a climate change strategy. What the Hell. Why not? The Navy is doing so well at its primary missions. And so actually winning a war drops in priority. China smiles.

China continues its subliminal territorial expansion at the Philippines' expense

Fascinating: "The Uvalde school shooter was able to get into that school because somebody inside had propped open a fire door. Republicans are now calling for schools to make it tougher for criminals to get inside. So the libs are pretending they don’t know how fire exits work." 

Japanese Primes Minister Kishida is pushing to arm up: "Japan is undergoing a dramatic shift in its strictly defensive postwar posture in which the country could double spending on its military and edge closer to acquiring a 'first-strike' capability." Not nuclear first strike, I hasten to add. But if Japan sees North Korea fueling up nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, it would be able to strike them first. Tip to Instapundit. 

A KKK plot to destroy Black children and cripple their opportunities for a lifetime could not be as evil as this new woke school policy.


It will be interesting to see how NATO and other states handle the logistics of supplying Ukraine with more armored vehicles once the old Soviet stuff still in NATO arsenals are sent to Ukraine. Maintenance will involve far more than teaching crews how to operate them. Or will we scour the world for old but usable Russian/Soviet armor?

Mali decides to terrorize them all and see if Allah will sort them out. To be fair, Russia's main objective is to destabilize the Sahel and North Africa to flood Europe with refugees.

What could possibly go wrong? Tip to Instapundit.

I don't doubt humans affect the climate by putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. I doubt that we know if our role is even close to being decisive. For example: "Scientists have long been aware that the waxing and waning of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets results from changes in the geometry of Earth’s orbit around the Sun." Wait. What? Not SUVs? I also doubt the predictions of doom and I reject the so-called solutions by leftists who want the same solutions regardless of the problem. If climate change--whether or not we cause it--becomes a problem, we'll figure it out. Tip to Instapundit.

Destroying norms and institutions: The tribe protects its own. Maybe the jury made the right call. I wasn't there. But it appears to stink to high Heaven. Via Instapundit.

Trump's diplomacy continues to bear fruit: "Israel and the United Arab Emirates signed a free trade agreement on Tuesday in Dubai. The deal is the first of its kind between Israel and an Arab state." Tip to Instapundit.

I don't see India's ties to Russia as a simple matter of India choosing between the West and Russia. India has clearly chosen the West. But Russia is still useful to India for building Indian military power to resist China. And I hope India will be a lever to flip Russia away from its growing vassal status under China. Remember, Russian defense ties to India surely annoy China. Why reduce that friction?

Destroying our institutions. FFS, the court should have said bees are not fish and dismissed the case. And fined whoever tried to push that BS. Why oh why are people mistrustful of our government's competence? Tip to Instapundit.

I heard that there are so many Covid-19 Omicron variants that getting the virus provides no practical protection of getting a variant you did not get. Fuck the Chinese Communist Party.

The left tells women to lie back and think of Wokeland. Via Instapundit. Perhaps I didn't think the latest Ricky Gervais comedy special was terribly funny because his jokes are today's news stories.

Do we need weed control to reduce mass murders? Way outside my lane. But the stuff is way more powerful now and way more available. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm sure American Army bridging engineers are technically proficient. But they were never under fire for this exercise. A little humility would be in order. (I mistakenly added this to a post on Afghanistan. Oops.)

The Russians can shove their objections to providing Ukraine with battlefield rockets like the Russians use to bombard Ukrainian cities up their nether regions. Of course, the American rockets are precision while the Russians fire dumb rockets en masse. But Russia says we're the bad guys.

Splits in Europe over dealing with Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows that "Europe's hour" has not arrived yet? By that they mean "Europe" hasn't wrecked NATO and ejected America from the continent. And by "Europe" they mean the European Union. Always check the "Definitions" section.

So Amber Heard is single and on the market now? God, I'm so screwed ...

President Litella says "never mind": "President Biden says the U.S. will not push for the ouster of Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, despite saying in March that Putin 'cannot remain in power.'" I find it comforting that Biden rather than his staff is walking back his statements.

The Iranian mullahs seem like such nice people: "Hackers sponsored by the Iranian government last year attempted a 'despicable' cyber attack against Boston Children's Hospital that threatened to disrupt services to patients, FBI Director Christopher Wray said on Wednesday."

You're less likely to die if you drink certain amounts of coffee every day? I'm reasonably sure everyone has a 100% chance of dying, but I know what they mean. Fingers crossed. Tip to Instapundit.

China's evolving H-6 aims at American carriers.

When every troop carries multiple OPSEC violations waiting to happen.

I can see the Panda. But I have strong doubt about the claim that only 1% can see it. Probably just one of those online things designed to make you feel special. I am, of course.. But this isn't an indicator.

Yes, Russia's serial invasions of Ukraine could trigger nuclear proliferation. But if America and Britain fail to help Ukraine defeat Russia, that could also trigger that. Remember, in addition to Russia, America and Britain signed the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukrainian freedom and territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine giving up its former-Soviet nuclear weapons. If it was nothing but a scrap of paper, who will trust such things?

FFS, if Germans don't want to be like Kaiser Wilhelm II during this Winter War of 2022 they can refuse to invade France and trigger a two-front war. Germany's decision to join the West is hitting some bumps. I repeat my advice, but let this apply to 1914 history, too: "I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight. Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue. Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that. Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that."

OPEC will increase production. Not enough. Why isn't America increasing production? 

I'm reasonably sure that a muted NATO reaction to this operation in northern Syria is Erdogan's price for allowing Sweden and Finland into NATO: "'We are taking another step in establishing a 30-kilometre security zone along our southern border. We will clean up Tal Rifat and Manbij of terrorists', he told a meeting of his ruling party in parliament."

Good: "The U.S. Army is planning its first Patriot missile air-defense exercise on Palau amid efforts by China to woo other Pacific island nations with offers of economic and security cooperation." I'm glad we are working with Palau.

One more "good": "Big deck amphibious warship USS Kearsarge (LHD-3), amphib USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely (DDG-107) and command ship USS Mount Whitney (LCC-20) are operating in the Baltic Sea ahead of the BALTOPS 22 exercise series, USNI News has learned." Practice amphibious operations

A littoral combat ship with 2 helicopters was sent to patrol the Red Sea. I'd watch out for Iranian missiles fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen or mines laid by vessels sailing from there. 

Our friend-we-haven't-made-yet, the Iranians.

When seconds count, the police are minutes away. And shamefully, some arrive in minutes only to spend many more minutes passively counting the gun shots they hear. As a rule, I'd rather have our police and bureaucrats enforce the laws we have before adding more laws that they don't enforce from incompetence or complacency.

In the U.S.-China robotics race at sea, America has an eye on Chinese subs: "The U.S. Navy believes robotic subs carrying mobile mines would be an effective new ASW asset because the U.S. is already developing some of the new ASW technology needed for this. This includes UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vessels) and mobile mines."

The Russian Baltic fleet would have a short but exciting life in war: "Sweden will host the annual large-scale BALTOPS exercise against the backdrop of its navy’s 500th anniversary. To show off amphibious, anti-submarine, gunnery and air-defense operations, 14 NATO allies, plus Sweden and Finland, will bring 45 ships, more than 75 aircraft, and about 7,000 personnel, according to the alliance."

Why those guarding secrets don't drink more is beyond me

The Coast Guard deploys for American naval presence in INDOPACOM.

China's population will shrink this year and continue to decline. The path I wrote about more than a decade ago is accelerated by 9 years. Note that back then China's 2100 population was forecast as 941 million. Now the projection is 587 million. The question of whether China will get old (lots of old people) before it gets rich (enough to support the elderly) is intensified.

The Russian ground forces must be in bad shape. At the low end of estimates Russia has lost 1,000 dead per week of war. Recall that during the Iraq War there were repeated claims that the war was "breaking" America's Army. But America never lost more than 1,000 troops in any calendar year

The Sussmann verdict: Destroying norms and institutions. The stench of banana republic government is strong. We should be alarmed.

But no planes embarked: "Japan plans to send its recently converted aircraft carrier on the country’s annual deployment to the Indo-Pacific region, conducting training and enhancing ties with regional partners over the next four months." I wonder if American F-35Bs will operate from the ship in those exercises?

Interesting: "Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acknowledged Saturday that Iran took the oil from two Greek tankers last month in helicopter-launched raids in the Persian Gulf." Greece helped America seize Iranian oil sold in violation of sanctions.

Science! 

Will our scientists please stop messing with nature? Was the Xi Jinping Flu not bad enough?


So did the man die from Frisbee or with Frisbee?


LOL! Much better this week:


Violence approved by the left is treated way differently.

Meanwhile in the Pacific: "the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan concluded a naval exercise with South Korea in the Philippine Sea on Saturday, the two militaries said, amid signs that North Korea is possibly preparing to conduct its first nuclear test explosion since 2017."

Members of Congress are concerned that our intelligence has failed on both the Ukraine war and the Afghanistan war withdrawal. They have reason to be concerned

We still don't know how many people the Chinese Communist Party murdered in 1989 to suppress democracy protests: "Heavy police force patrolled Hong Kong’s Victoria Park on Saturday after authorities for a third consecutive year banned public commemoration of the anniversary of the deadly Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989, with vigils overseas the only place marking the event."

You're gonna need a bigger museum

Macron earnestly seeks that happy medium between Russia conquering Ukraine and Ukraine defeating Russia's invasion: "Macron says France's role is as a 'mediating power' between Ukraine and Russia." Why France has a reputation as a cheese-eating surrender monkey continues to elude the nuanced class. Just wait, France will suggest Russia's conquests could become Vichy Ukraine.

The failure of models to quantify leadership and training, among other quality factors. I noted the problem with models that rely on quantitative factors only. For the record, I once looked at the Global Firepower Index, which doesn't try to use any qualitative factors, and decided to ignore it. To be fair, adding qualitative factors risks putting in wishful thinking factors to get the results you want. But you have to have both to have a shot at predicting battles and wars. Of course, I've been a wargamer since I was 10, so this approach comes naturally. Do read it all.

Communists are evil: "There’s a cultural genocide taking place in China right now against the nation’s Uyghur minority. Aggressively monitored by Chinese authorities and faced with the constant threat of arrest or torture, this Turkish-speaking people in China’s Far West now exist in the world’s first, real-life, digital dictatorship." That is just Dystopian State 1.0. China will role out version 2.0 across all of China because the CCP considers its own subjects to be the biggest threat to their rule. It could spread farther. Note too the silence of the Easily Offended.® But at least we know what doesn't offend them.

Student loan cancellation should be a disaster for Democrats. It is a complete betrayal of people who didn't take out huge loans--for themselves or their children. And it betrays blue collar people by making them pay for other people who went to college and will gain the benefits of college.

Illustrating the unresolvable problem of who exactly determines what is misinformation? Via Instapundit.

Russia is holding Europe's reliance on Russian energy over the continent's head. It's almost amusing that Europe reduced its reliance on unstable Middle Eastern energy only to create reliance on Russia just as America's wars in the Middle East settled the region down enough for its energy exports to be more reliable. Out of the frying pan and into the fire, eh?

This is kind of funny in a murder-suicide pact sort of way (via Instapundit): "Employers have started to look at training on the job as a better measure of skills than a college degree, according to one career expert." College degrees became important to employers as a proxy for being capable enough to learn the employers' jobs. But colleges are destroying the significance of those degrees by turning campuses into woke luxury resorts that passed out diplomas like participation trophies. And now graduates find those degrees are less significant to employers. I'm going to enjoy the collapse of much of the Woke-Administrator Complex.

Their quasi-war goes on: "A military officer and a weapons scientist have died under mysterious circumstances in Tehran, fuelling tension between Iran and Israel." Iran, I should note, wants to destroy Israel. This did not fuel "tension."

The space race: "China on Sunday launched a new three-person mission to complete assembly work on its permanent orbiting space station." But I wonder if this is about space or about enjoying being able to control people so completely that even oxygen is in the hands of the CCP. 

Mystery? No. Everyone knows that if Republicans were on the list that the list would be public--and searchable on some media organization web site. 

LOL! Via Instapundit.

No! Way! "Al-Qaida has a haven in Afghanistan under the Taliban and 'increased freedom of action' with the potential of launching new long-distance attacks in coming years, a UN report based on intelligence supplied by member states says." It's almost as if choosing to lose to the Taliban was a mistake. Tip to Instapundit.

Remember when the media and Democrats (but I repeat myself, of course) treated Michael Avanatti like a political savior and god? Good times. Good times. Tip to Instapundit.