China builds an ESB class of littoral warfare ship. And America's class of such ships. I was unaware of some of the earlier experiments. Recall that Ponce was a laser test bed, too. By building ESBs, the Navy made my The AFRICOM Queen proposal unnecessary.
Oops: "The air force made two other avoidable mistakes [in addition to engine maintenance deficiencies]; introducing the new ALIS (Autonomic Logistics Information System), a spare parts management system that did not work as expected, and underestimating the difficulty of updating the complex F-35 software in a timely manner. These three bad decisions are now combining to keep F-35 readiness (mission capable) rates low while those for older aircraft, including the F-22 stealth fighter, increase."
Before we mock the Russians too much for their inability to use their air force in a large conventional war: "Both the US Navy and Air Force have been struggling to keep some planes ready to fly in recent years, and it’s only getting worse, according to a new watchdog report."
Oops: "French President Emmanuel Macron is set to face a potentially tumultuous five years of deadlock after his centrist alliance fell short of an absolute majority in a parliamentary runoff on Sunday, just weeks after he was reelected to the Elysée." Macron's imperial ambitions hit a speed bump.
I wonder if Lithuania's stoppage of certain rail traffic to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave under EU sanctions provisions is meant to provide leverage for ending Russia's blockade of Odessa grain exports? If not, Lithuania's actions seem a bit risky.
Huh: "Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that there was no point having any nuclear arms reduction talks with the United States and that Moscow should wait until the Americans begged for negotiations." This tough talk makes sense.
China launched a new advanced large aircraft carrier. But in an observation worthy of Admiral Obvious, "But the fact that the Fujian comes equipped with the latest bells and
whistles does not make it immune from attacks from above and below the
water." Yes. If it floats it can sink. Or be mission-killed. America can return China's A2/AD favor.
A remotely controlled HIMARS robotic vehicle.
Russia is beating their chest and flinging poo in Syria around American forces.
Huh, I guess the Green Australian PM doesn't want to risk his political future by sacrificing his people on the altar of Gaia. The Greens picked energy "winners" incapable of crossing the finish line. Now the people will pay one way or the other.
Zhir, yes zhir! "The Navy is training its members to create a 'safe space' by using
proper gender pronouns in a new instructional video modeled after a
children's show." Via Instapundit. It figures that the Navy, which by tradition calls USS Gerald R. Ford "she", would do this first. When the PLA Navy kicks our ass at sea, you'll know why. 
Has the proto-imperial EU sabotaged its goal of stripping away the prefix with its main proponents pretending that splitting the Ukraine baby is the height of sophisticated nuance? The EU proponents of "ever closer union" are exposed for its anti-freedom foundation.
I've refrained from commenting on the Uvalde school shooting. We need to know what went wrong. But by now it seems clear that the idea that we can rely on the police to protect us is unsupported by the police leadership decisions that day. And can you imagine the psychological toll on officers poised to break in who were told to stay put while they could hear children being killed one by one? Will "leaders" be held accountable?
South Korea reminds North Korea that in a nuclear arms race the North won't win despite its head start: "South Korea conducted its first successful satellite launch using a domestically developed rocket on Tuesday, officials said, boosting its growing aerospace ambitions and demonstrating it has key technologies needed to launch spy satellites and build larger missiles amid tensions with rival North Korea."
Is the F-15EX purchase going to be cancelled? I hope not. It has value for continental air defense, air superiority missions against weaker enemies, and strike missions that don't require stealth. It could also be a small arsenal plane functioning like an external missile load for F-35s firing the F-15EX missiles without revealing the F-35's location. The F-15EX could make a high-speed exit from the engagement area after firing. And I like having a dogfighter Plan B in case the F-35 fighting model is insufficient or--God help us--wrong.
God damn the teacher unions to Hell.
Yes, Ukraine needs Western heavy weapons now. But given that Ukraine has to transition usage, logistics, and maintenance for totally new weapons I don't know if it is possible. Shoving weapons into Ukraine now where they will sit in storage until Ukraine can use them doesn't seem wise. Why let Russia destroy them before Ukraine can use them? So I'm not willing at this point to fully criticize the pace of getting weapons to Ukraine.
Our future friend: "A U.S. Navy warship fired a warning flare to wave off an Iranian Revolutionary Guard speedboat coming straight at it during a tense encounter in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, officials said Tuesday." Note that a previous even worse incident in March was kept quiet because our government is desperate to renew the horrible Iran nuclear deal.
Russia has quickly returned to massed firepower to pound their enemy. Truly it is scary. But Russia is using it against an enemy with limited long-range counter-battery capabilities. Could Russia repeat this against a peer competitor? Heck, does Russia have the ammunition supply to win in the Severodonetsk salient offensive?
I find this concept so stupid and not worth the price that I have trouble believing it is being seriously studied: "... rocket-launched commandos slipping the surly bonds of Earth and being sent around the world in hours to secure a target." What's the point of getting there fast if there is no way to sustain or withdraw them--and whoever they were sent to rescue? Isn't this an expensive suicide mission?
The West really needs to ramp up ammunition and weapons production. Both for Ukraine and in case the West needs it.
Good: "Canada on Monday pledged to spend over $30 billion over the next two decades to help detect and track military threats from Russia and China in the Arctic." It's about time. But what about money to "fight" threats?
I should hope so: "The US intelligence community is conducting an internal review of its processes after underestimating Ukrainian resolve and overestimating Russian military capabilities." Our models failed. Although I wouldn't quite call the Russian military "hollow." It is pounding Ukraine. If Russia can endure the cost in dead soldiers for fighting that way, it can work. But it was certainly inflated--here and in Russia, which believed its own BS.
The Saudis oppose the far more dangerous Iranians. I'm not sure what all the anguish is about over Biden's outreach unless nobody wants to make big boy decisions in the real world. Too many here love the Iranian mullahs.
FFS. Could our Navy wargame how the PLA could affect future conflict? The Navy has many substitutes for victory.
I will never give my pronouns. If you can't tell, either I'm doing something wrong or you are.
You'd think Russia has enough on its hands without provoking NATO: "Estonia's defense ministry said Tuesday that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter entered the region of Koidula without permission for two minutes on Saturday, adding that it was one of a number of recent aerial intrusions by Russia."
Lithuania's halting of Russian ground traffic to Kaliningrad highlights the Suwalki gap problem. The problem is more serious after Russia's Anschluss with Belarus.
With Russia getting more Russia-like, this is a bad idea: "President Joe Biden’s administration announced Tuesday it would restrict the use of anti-personnel land mines by the U.S. military, aligning the country’s policy more closely with an international treaty banning the deadly explosives." Our ban assumes we will win any war and the main problem is cleaning up the mines after our victory. But at least anti-tank mines aren't banned. So it isn't totally stupid. Our enemies will use mines.
Russia deserves a lot more of this given its record of destroying Ukraine: "A 'kamikaze drone' has struck an oil refinery in Russia, causing a fire to break out."
I hope that airman has a long future of breaking large rocks into pebbles: "Military law enforcement on June 16 arrested an American airman as part of an ongoing investigation into an insider attack on a small U.S. base in northern Syria that injured four service members in April, CNN reported Tuesday." If found guilty, of course.
If Russian territorial unity is put under stress by Putin's invasion of Ukraine, what will Kaliningrad do? "Rather than invest in Kaliningrad’s economy as it has been cut off from Europe, Putin has militarised it – his strategy has been described as an attempt to create an 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' wedged in the EU."
Does new military technology mean size doesn't matter? "Smaller nations can become great powers, decisive and dangerous." I don't think so. Perhaps for the first week or month of war. But even if a small great power can hold an enemy at bay for a while, eventually weight of numbers and logistics will grind the small power down.
I'm no expert, but if Biden suspends the federal gas tax won't that increase consumption of gasoline? And won't increasing demand push the price up, perhaps erasing the value to consumers of the lack of a gas tax? Isn't increasing the supply of gasoline by opening up exploration and production the way to go by signaling markets that more product will be coming to the market?
Imperial ambitions: "Turkey’s parliament on Tuesday extended for another 18 months a mandate that allows the deployment of Turkish troops to Libya."
The various news livestreams that I used to keep on to keep track of breaking news in the Winter War of 2022 have largely resumed their normal programming. Conventional war in Europe? Yawn. The panic of nuclear war fear four months ago was unfounded. And now the war is boring.
I listened to a podcaster explain that one problem of sending Western tanks to Ukraine is that Ukraine's transportation infrastructure (like bridges) can't handle their weight. Nor could Ukrainian recovery vehicles tow them. This is before you consider the issues of maintenance, training, and logistics. I hadn't considered the weight issue.
As long as Eisenhower's warning of a military-industrial complex is again in vogue, let's also recall that he said there was an "imperative need" for that complex to defend ourselves. But sure, it's a two-edged sword we need to handle carefully lest we harm ourselves.
When the "responsible" center won't even discuss issues a sizable portion of the population wants addressed--and condemns you as "deplorable" for even bringing them up--a sizable portion of the population will support the right and left wings who are willing to talk about them. Even if the wings won't talk responsibly about them.
Lithuania says Russia is lying--I know, shocking--about its cutoff of certain strategic cargo going to Kaliningrad. It is not a blockade or siege.
Inflation was high before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Journalists suck but are in denial. Journalists write for the tiny leftist and activist segment of the Twitterverse.
So wants to pay for a next generation tank?
There is a lack of EU leadership to deal with the Ukraine crisis? Hold on there! The proto-imperial EU hasn't stripped that prefix yet! Whether or not there is EU leadership, NATO is designed for this crisis. Putin isn't vulnerable to 10,000 entangling cheese regulations.
Sigh: "The June 12 decision by Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to renounce his electoral victory and collapse the government formation process is a gift to Iran." I've long worried that we'd rue the day we let that three-time insurrectionist live. I'm told Sadr is no longer a puppet of Iran. If so, what does it matter? Biden is letting things slide. We may yet lose the latest phase of the war we won.
So far, Iraq continues to kill jihadis: "Iraq has in recent weeks stepped up counterterrorism operations in its western desert and other areas amid risks of an imminent flare-up of conflict in eastern Syria, with potential repercussions in the regional fight against the Islamic State (IS)."
Commies gotta commy: "Even though 104 of the 118 Confucius Institutes on American college campuses have been shut down, the Chinese government is finding new ways to infiltrate higher education in the United States, according to a new report by the National Association of Scholars." Tip to Instapundit.
Russia has gotten their artillery war on a very narrow front in the Donbas. Can they win it? I don't know if Russia has the ammunition or the artillery barrels to maintain their pace of destruction.
Israel's laser wall against aerial threats, rockets, and shells will be more cost effective than its Iron Dome defenses. But I imagine it can be overwhelmed by volume just as the rocket-based system can be. And on strategy, does Israel believe this will let them remain on the defensive on their border?
More HIMARS for Ukraine: "The U.S. will send another $450 million in military aid to Ukraine, including some additional medium-range rocket systems, U.S. officials said Thursday."
I've wondered if Russia has the ammunition to keep up the pace of their artillery usage. The Ukrainians say the Russians can keep up the pace another year. Whether the troops have the same endurance is another question, however. Russia has probably lost 20,000 KIA at this point. Add in another 40,000 WIA too badly hurt to return to duty.
The rise of socialism fans does not bode well for America. Sure, they don't really understand socialism or free market capitalism. But their votes are no less valid for that. And yeah, while I support Trump's championing of the blue collar class, I don't like the formerly left-wing positions his backers support like trade and industrial policy.
In my view, Russia is beating their chest and flinging poo in the Baltic region now because Putin's war in Ukraine has made his military incapable of doing more than threaten anybody else. Putin can use cyber, special forces, or nukes. Everything else he might use is dying or burning in Ukraine.
North Korea doesn't want to risk cracking down on protests outside of Pyongyang against hunger and Covid policies. Well isn't that interesting.
The U.S. is sending more military aid to Ukraine, including 4 more HIMARS, patrol boats, artillery ammunition (Oddly, 105mm rounds. Who provided those guns? [LATER: Ah, New Zealand provided the guns and training in Britain.), small arms, and patrol boats, among other things.
Is North Korea moving short-range nukes close to South Korea's border? That makes them easier for South Korea and its allies to destroy. Surely Kim Jong-un doesn't think a surprise nuclear strike would win him South Korea, does he? I'd say odds are the warheads aren't reliable so the fear factor of deploying them is more valuable to Kim than protecting the weapons.
Bolster deterrence against China by returning American bases to the Philippines. Short of that, I think deterrence could be increased by helping the Philippines supply its island bases that resist China's subliminal offensive.
Building up infrastructure in INDOPACOM.
Overturning long-established law is now outrageous, apparently.
Now the issue is in the legislative arena, where it belongs. Rule of law has been defended. Nothing was in fact "banned" by the decision. I hope this is the start of a return to federalism, which may calm the viciously partisan political divide at the national level. Controlling the federal government should not be so important. Which contributed to the division.
Silly people think that getting Ukraine to surrender territory to Russia will provide peace for out time. There will be less peace without justice for Ukraine. But a majority in key European countries may think this time for sure, appeasement will work.
Why do people confuse "cautious" with "playing the long game"? "Far from spurring China to jettison this approach in favor of an imminent military assault on Taiwan, the war in Ukraine will reinforce Beijing’s commitment to playing the long game." I don't understand why people think Chinese rulers have near-genetic long-range planning abilities. Personally, I have no idea if the Winter War of 2022 has encouraged or discouraged Chinese willingness to invade Taiwan.
Rethinking Saudi Arabia. The country has changed a lot since 9/11. I think the shock of that terrorism forced the Saudis to confront the threat to themselves. They've worked to revise the culture that spawned the Islamist ideology that motivates murderers. The Saudis have a key role in winning the Islamic civil war for the good guys. Pray the Saudi rulers hold off the Islamists who won't give up easily.
Russia had a long covert campaign of intimidation, murder, and sabotage across Europe to limit Ukrainian artillery ammunition supplies. I mentioned one major attack in Ukraine in 2017: "The Ukrainian military has said unknown saboteurs blew up the military depot storing about 138,000 tonnes of ammunition, according to Reuters."
After about three months of effort, the Russians have taken Severodonetsk. Russian tactics of massive bombardment have enabled this short advance. Ukraine says it has inflicted heavy casualties on the Russians. Russia says its tactics have lowered their casualties. I suspect the Ukrainians are more accurate because Russia has drawn troops from the rest of the front for the Severodonetsk salient fight.
The U.S. is looking more at air defenses issues in the Winter War of 2022. It is unclear if this means assisting Ukraine with air defenses or assisting Ukraine with defeating improved Russian air defenses.
Russia is fighting for its great power status but that is backfiring. I don't like the comparison to America's war in Vietnam. The cost was surely high in casualties and money. That is a valid parallel. But America actually defeated the Viet Cong. And left a South Vietnam capable of resisting North Vietnam with our aid--which Congress promptly slashed after American troops left. And one can make an argument that if you view the war as a hot campaign in the Cold War, the war improved deterrence against the USSR and held the line long enough for South Asia and Southeast Asia to improve their resistance to communist ideology.
Election validity deniers. Wait. What? That didn't undermine our norms and institutions? Oh. Because reasons. Never mind.
The Army's ideal used to be only seeing green soldiers. Well, we're effed. Tip to Instapundit.
A number of states had dormant statutes against abortion because of Roe v. Wade that are reanimated with the latest Supreme Court decision. Where were the Democrats over the last half century repealing those statutes when they had power? I've long known Michigan has one of those laws. Yet at no time did Democrats choose to get rid of those statutes. Abortion supporters should focus their ire on them rather than a court that rightly rejected a violation of rule of law based on wholly made up constitutional protections.
The people in Sudan's Darfur province continue to be subject to arguably genocidal attacks: "Violence in western Sudan this month alone has displaced more than 84,000 people, doubling the number of those driven from their homes so far this year, according to UN reports."
I'm told this is evidence of an insurrection.
Good: "Congress is poised to force the Pentagon to study how it assesses allies’ will to fight, amid criticism from lawmakers that the U.S. government has regularly failed to make such assessments accurately." The models are a problem. Also, this is not a defense: "Intelligence officials have said errors in predicting the course of the Russian invasion were more a matter of overestimating the Russians than underestimating the Ukrainians." FFS, notwithstanding the question, in what alternate bureaucratic world is that a defense of the models?
Could a partisan divide in the mortality rates from 2001 to 2019--if the methodology isn't flawed--be caused from higher death and wound rates of young Republican troops in war compared to Democrats?
To be fair, it is quite illogical.
Sigh. I honestly hope the Republicans don't try to pass federal abortion legislation. Biden would veto it anyway. Stand up for federalism and advance it rather than continue the tradition of treating the federal government as the most important institution to battle over.
Absolutely prosecute that nutball and/or fanatic.
FYI, Jane's Revenge is an American domestic terrorist organization. I'm sure the DOJ will get right on that.
Significant shrinkage in Russia.
The patrol boats America is sending Ukraine are intended for Ukrainian river usage. I'm assuming they are intended for the Dnieper River in the south between Kherson and Zaporizhzhya. They could prevent the Russians from evacuating Russian troops by the river if Ukrainian forces manage to isolate Russian troops north of the river stalled pressing north on the left bank.
