Don't think we can predict why China might invade Taiwan. I don't believe we can even begin to comprehend their rational.
I've long been distressed by our unwitting destruction of Mao's enemies. This author recalls:
Mao’s use of the Korean War (1950-53) to eliminate former Kuomintang officers and soldiers, who were re-organized into 14 PLA Armies, the majority of which were deployed to the front, suffering exceptional losses in a protracted conflict.
The author uses that sacrifice of defeated enemies to wonder if Xi Jinping might like to discredit and purge some of his opposition in the PLA with a minor defeat:
There is the egregiously cynical conclusion that Xi may risk a war over Taiwan knowing that any less-than victorious outcome will increase his influence within the PLA and permit him to further reduce opposing factions and disloyal officers. The responsibility for any military setback, as long as it is not catastrophic, can be shifted onto the PLA, which will perversely strengthen the stature of the CCP and increase the PLA’s dependence on the party.
From Xi's point of view, the invasion might work, so he wins that way. But if the PLA is defeated and XI cuts his losses by retreating before the defeat is catastrophic--yet retaining some of Taiwan's islands captured while invading the main island--Xi might look like the savior of the PLA. Which would allow Xi to purge worrisome PLA officers who survive the invasion.
Xi might even deliberately halt what could be a successful conquest of Taiwan by declaring a ceasefire while the PLA has a bridgehead in order to both purge the PLA and maintain the bridgeheads to resume the war at a later date with more loyal commanders in charge.
Taiwan and its allies might believe they were saved by agreeing to a ceasefire when they are just being saved for later. Because job one of the PLA is to maintain the Chinese Communist Party's control of China--which Xi increasingly views as being embodied by himself.
Heck, I wondered if North Korea would try a variant of that strategy to get rid of its huge army that costs too much to maintain yet is too dangerous to release into the civilian world. I wouldn't put it beyond Xi to try that strategy--again.
Is our intelligence on China granular enough to know if Xi critics in the PLA are concentrated in Taiwan-focused military units?
NOTE: My latest war coverage is here. Weekend data dump also has Ukraine-related entries.
