America fully intends to defend Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan. Because the fate of Taiwan is far more momentous than simply the fate of Taiwan.
Biden said the United States would defend Taiwan if China attacks it. I'm sure we would. But we're not supposed to say that because we have no treaty with Taiwan. The White House walked that commitment back pretty fast.
It is possible Biden was simply not supposed to say that truth out loud. Honestly, American ambiguity was possible when China's capacity to invade was lower. Clarity might be the thing we need to deter war. We would fight for Taiwan. Why hide that fact and encourage China to invade?
Three presidential "gaffes" are policy, done to stealthily introduce the commitment without rubbing China's nose in that fact. As the author explains, the Taiwan Relations Act in part states:
It is the policy of the United States . . .
to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States. . .
to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
That may not require America to defend Taiwan but it certainly justifies it.
And aside from the moral issue of standing with a free democracy, Taiwan's geography is useful.
It is in America's interests to prevent China from controlling Taiwan as an asset--including its advanced chip fabrication capabilities. Which could involve destroying Taiwan to prevent China from exploiting their control. That should motivate Taiwan to defend their country rather than give them an excuse to reduce defense efforts and let America do the job. Taiwan needs to be an ally and not an objective.
The United States arguably committed America to fighting for Taiwan in statute even though we don't say that out loud very often. Still, as the author says, the history of American defense commitments includes just the main island and the Pescadores Islands. So there are limits.
Which is another reason for thinking that if China wants to strike a blow for its long-held core objective of ruling Taiwan, capturing Taiwan's Pratas Island would be a safe training-wheels invasion that also signals China's intentions.
UPDATE: Japan understands the problem:
Japan wants to drastically increase defence spending "within the next five years" it said on Tuesday in an annual economic policy document that for the first time mentioned both a time frame for the expenditure and concern about threats faced by Taiwan. ...
Breaching that [first island chain] line would directly threaten sea lanes that supply Japan's economy with most of its oil.
NOTE: War coverage continues on this post.
