Putin's war in Ukraine is disastrous for Russia even if he somehow grinds out a win against smaller and weaker Ukraine. Russia can't even pretend it is an equal partner with China now.
That second-fiddle role is not a scenario Putin would have envisioned when the Russian president decided to invade Ukraine in February, propelled by a desire to rebuild a bygone glory for his nation.
Well, Russia's policy of hiding its appeasement of China with hostility toward NATO led to the crippling of Russia's ground forces in Ukraine in a farcical effort to humiliate and cripple NATO, which posed no military threat.
Putin pines for Soviet glory days. Putin's threats to use his military give Russia more stature than its status as a regional military power with continents-spanning defense needs justify. Just like Mussolini enjoyed--until he used his military and exposed it for the sham it was.
So basically, Russia chose vassal status. Although what choice does Russia have now given the heavy losses in the airborne forces Russia relies on to reinforce its Far East?
What might China now demand of its weakened and humiliated vassal?
UPDATE: Examining the many faces of the Fuck-Up Fairy in Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
UPDATE: Indeed:
The Russian Army's slipshod combat performance in Ukraine raises hard questions about the Kremlin's ability to wage conventional war against a peer enemy. That suggests the Kremlin's greatest geostrategic treasure, resource-laden Siberia, is vulnerable.
To whom? Not NATO, but communist China. For the first time in centuries China possesses a more powerful military than Russia. According to Beijing's propagandists, Siberia belongs to China.
The great leap forward in future history: China would enforce its territorial claim as Russia withers.
Opportunity is knocking for China.
UPDATE: The opportunity may come fast if Putin doesn't accept that his war is eroding Russian willingness to die or suffer for his war faster than his propaganda is eroding Western support for Ukraine.
Do read it all.
NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.