America is rebuilding ties with Turkey. It would be nice to restore NATO trust in Turkey. Is this premature?
America and Turkey are formally NATO allies. But under Erdogan, Turkey has looked away from both democracy and the West, including Israel, to forge an independent neo-imperial policy in the Old Ottoman Empire territory. Turkey reached out to Islamists and fellow imperial power Russia as it shifted to "tame" Islam in governance and autocratic ways.
America clearly has an Erdogan problem. It was never simply a problem of Turkey buying Russian S-400 missiles.
But Turkey's policies are alienating the West even as new friends and influence aren't making up for that. I've advocated a policy of "taking a break" in our relationship--rather than initiating a full break--until the Turks reflect on their policy and get second thoughts:
The path to the Russian-Turkish entente, if it occurs, is longer than either the coup or the Trump presidency, and dates back to Erdogan's rise to power in 2003. Indeed, the failure of the Turkish parliament to approve the deployment of America's 4th Infantry Division--our top of the line digital division at the time--to open a major front against Saddam in the Iraq War was a canary in the coal mine moment.
I'm not sure what we can do to keep Turkey under Erdogan in NATO and away from Russia. But letting Turkey get the F-35 is not worth the risk to keep Turkey firmly in NATO.
I'd fudge the Turkish S-400 purchase if we cut it off from NATO's integrated air defenses and let it be a stand-alone system away from the potential main fronts with Russia. Russia is weak enough that if Turkish air defense are an island apart from the rest of NATO it won't harm NATO defenses. Really, in case of war with NATO Russian forces in the Mediterranean Sea will lead a short but exciting life.
I'd also scale back sensitive data and information sharing while looking for alternatives to NATO facilities in Turkey. And for God's sake, we no longer have nuclear warheads stored at Incirlik air base, right?
And if Turkey does withdraw from NATO I'd make sure the Turks know that NATO would be eager for Turkey to return to the alliance as an actual ally one day. Because in the long run, Russia is not Turkey's friend even if Russia under Putin is Erdogan's friend.
I thought it might require a post-Erdogan Turkey to restore relations. Is Erdogan himself changing his mind? Is this a sign of Turkish second thoughts even though Erdogan is still in charge?
Following months of diplomacy, Turkey and the United States have launched a strategic mechanism to boost cooperation in areas such as economy and defense.
“There is a new energy in ties,” Victoria Nuland, the US State Department's undersecretary for political affairs, told the Turkish media after meeting with Turkish Foreign Ministry and Presidency officials. The new mechanism allows Turkish and American officials to talk about all of the issues, from trade to human rights and civil society, or regional issues from Syria to Ukraine, she added.
I'm hopeful. But is Erdogan to be trusted? He infamously said democracy is like a train because you get off at your destination. The implication was that he was using elections to become an autocrat and promote Islamism. America believed it might be a "tame" Islamism to attract people away from the "wild" Islamism of terrorists.
This does not bode well for the strategic mechanism:
Nato member Turkey said it was still talking to Russia about procuring a second batch of one of its most advanced missile defence systems despite the war in Ukraine.
I don't think Islamism can be tame. And I don't think Erdogan has abandoned his views. Is America naively thinking Erdogan has reformed?
Is this strategic mechanism just another train ride on the trip to Erdogan's imperial glories? Or is the Russian example giving him reason to question that destination and his ability to survive the trip?
UPDATE: Erdogan is still a problem child. But at least he must balance to survive.
NOTE: War updates continue at this post.
