Well that was stupid. And the sad thing is, few people probably care one way or the other. I sure can't manage to rub together two care molecules. Via Instapundit.
Slowly and then all of a sudden?
Paranoia and difficulties in Russian nuclear weapons development.
As with many things in war, having an arms industry that doesn't suck as badly as the enemy's arms industry is key. Fingers crossed for China having similar problems. And yeah, I too wonder about Russia's ability to maintain all those nukes. Tip to Instapundit.
The first Army battalion has been updated with the M2A4 upgraded Bradley Fighting Vehicle. It went to 3rd Infantry Division (heavy). Right now five brigades are planned to get it.
Thoughts on Russian amphibious warfare in the Ukraine war and on the capability in general. I didn't think Russia would risk amphibious operations against opposition out of fear of casualties. And Russian naval infantry seems desperately needed in the land campaign. But Russian capability does tie down Ukrainian troops on coastal defense. With sufficient suppression of anti-ship and air defense capabilities, it is a useful capability to have if you can afford it.
Haha: "Afghanistan's acting defence minister said on Sunday that the Taliban administration would not tolerate 'invasions' from its neighours after protesting against airstrikes it says were conducted by neighbouring Pakistan." Does Pakistan still think it "won"?
Yeah, I once had some hopes for Medvedev. I at least thought he might resist Putin's efforts to return to power. But no, Medvedev was perfectly content in his role as Putin's fluffer.
I gave several posts, including some published prior to the war, the Winter War of 2022 tag because I thought they might provide useful information.
Is the Winter War of 2022 the new Spanish Civil War? I don't think so. Although perhaps Donbas from 2014-2021 was. This is more like what Poland could have been in 1939 if the Allies had better lines of supply into Poland and the will to send weapons. And if Germany screwed the pooch in their invasion strategy and tactics, of course.
Fingers crossed that Twitter can go from freedom of leftist speech to just plain old freedom of speech. Tip to Instapundit. I'm sure leftist blue checks are already getting PTSD.
I worried early during the pandemic that the West would harm its economies needlessly to the ultimate benefit of China. But China has caught up fast in self-destructive behavior.
Not since the FBI said a Lego Capitol Building was proof of conspiracy has an intelligence agency wrecked its reputation so thoroughly: "Russian security services on Monday have been accused of staging a Ukrainian assassination attempt by releasing photos of confiscated copies of “The Sims” video games that some speculate were mistaken by Kremlin officers for SIM cards." Putin can't be happy with his FSB. Tip to Instapundit.
Iraq struggles with corruption-fueled Iranian influence. But Iraq remains a functioning--if fragile--democracy. Although the corruption undermines the needed rule of law to make democracy endure. American troops support that by holding a safety net in place; while America simultaneously works on a new Iran nuclear deal that will strengthen Iran's power to undermine Iraq. Ah, Smart Diplomacy.®
This post on counter-battery radar going to Ukraine raises an interesting question. Will Ukraine get precision rounds for its new 155mm artillery pieces? That would ease ammunition resupply.
I like to think I had a tiny role in this usage: "The deployment of USS Hershel “Woody” Williams’ (ESB-4) deployment off the West Coast of Africa allowed forces from Sierra Leone, Cape Verde and Senegal to the U.S. ship as a base of operations for local missions." Years ago I proposed a substitute for this type of capability, The AFRICOM Queen, in Military Review. I didn't think the Navy would use its big deck amphibs for African duties. It didn't. But it did build ESBs.
Lavrov can ef himself. His nuclear threats just show how Russia is failing with its vaunted military. When Russia was a big boy in the Cold War, your enemy supplying weapons used against you was the price of being a player. Nobody threatened nukes. See Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan. But now Russia whines that we aren't being fair. And his empty threats have a long history.
I was happy that the Germans finally got a productive whack with the clue bat when Russia invaded Ukraine this year. But German stupidity inertia is still holding them back: "Almost two months after the time-turning speech, after all that has been learned of the innumerable crimes against civilians and the genocidal nature of the war, it has become clear that Germany still acts with its old mixture of reluctance, hesitation, and backsliding." I'm not ready to write off Germany: "Weaponsmaker Krauss-Maffei Wegmann is set to be given permission to sell refurbished Gepard (Cheetah) anti-aircraft tanks from Germany Army stocks, it was reported by German media." Infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks may follow.
The tsunami building across the Pacific will hit America this summer.
Obviously, to keep the male spider confused and around long enough, the female spider will evolve to ask the male spider what he's thinking. Tip to Instapundit.
Oh? "Ukraine could be broken up into several smaller countries as a result of the war, one of Russia's top defence officials has said." Funny, I was thinking the same thing about Russia.
Pakistan and "mission accomplished" problems: "The drugs and Islamic terrorism are still major exports. The West can
leave Afghanistan but the ills of Afghanistan won’t leave the West. This
is even more visible in Pakistan." Nobody seems to have really won in Afghanistan. Terrorism has shot up in Pakistan. How long before it moves to Europe and America?
A decision to fight for a city is a decision to destroy sink it: "Next year, a small city is expected to begin rising on the ocean surface
along the coast of Busan, South Korea, with the capacity to hold 12,000
people."
Meanwhile in the Pacific: "The Navy sent another guided-missile destroyer through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, the fourth U.S. warship to make the trip this year."
More Ukrainian planes and sorties: "Not only are the Ukrainians flying dozens of aircraft, but they are also flying them increasingly more because other nations have been helping."
The United States is only pretending to confront China. Thank goodness China's Zero Covid policy is doing sufficient damage to China for the moment.
Russia's decision to halt natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria walks a fine line. Russia wants to strike fear into all European countries so they will end support for Ukraine. But Russia can't cut off too many European countries because Russia needs the income. Does Europe cave before Russia loses? Or will European countries still getting Russian energy resell to Poland and Bulgaria to spread the pain? Does America unleash energy production or does it persist in anti-fossil fuels policies in pursuit of the renewable (Chinese-built) unicorn?
A functioning and honorable news industry would be all over this. So expect the sound of crickets in that world of leftist activists. He brought them to the dance and they'll surely go home with him.
The death suicide of expertise. And yet they are horrified that people don't trust them. Tip to Instapundit.
Even without the Russian energy issue, this is a potential problem: "Might we be at the high watermark of consensus within the Western alliance? There are some tough choices ahead that may make it hard for Western powers to stay on the same diplomatic page." The West has been pretty united in wanting to make sure Russia doesn't conquer Ukraine. But is there consensus between ceasefire that ratifies what Russia has taken and a Ukrainian march on Moscow?
I've linked this look to 2040 before, but it is interesting. China and Russia loosen or fragment while the European Union collapses or scales back ambitions. The jihadi threat continues. "To summarize, the dominant theme we see playing out over the course of the next 19 years is increasing disarray in Europe and Asia. We expect prolonged stability in North American with U.S. rivals working to increase their footholds in Latin America. Despite the growing unsteadiness in Eurasia, we also expect to see three regional powers emerge: Japan, Turkey and Poland. These countries will be outliers in an otherwise fragmented Eastern Hemisphere." Given my top four worries have been the EU, China, Russia, and jihadis, 2040 looks pretty good, outside of the jihadis. And they'll be a bigger problem for others.
I missed this entirely forgettable pretense of an Indo-Pacific strategy statement. This stood out in its idiocy: "We will focus on every corner of the region, from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, to South Asia and Oceania, including the Pacific Islands." When you focus everywhere, you have no focus. Much like the initial Russian invasion plan.
I certainly haven't trusted Wikipedia for a long time. For certain basic facts it is fine. I certainly link to it. But for anything I'm seriously researching I find it best for finding out what terms and concepts I should search for on a particular issue elsewhere.
I hope the Iran nuclear deal is truly dead. But there are enough fanboys (and girls) of the horrible deal in the Biden administration that I fear there are plenty willing to energetically give it mouth-to-anus resuscitation to bring it back to life.
We set up the Department of Homeland Security to protect America from jihadi terrorism. The administration has little interest in battling that threat. Or securing our border from illegal immigrants. But there is still a vast agency in place. So it will find an enemy more important to the administration to keep busy. DHS is setting up a "Disinformation Governance Board to coordinate countering misinformation related to homeland security... ." Gosh, how could that possibly be used to stifle dissent?
"Forgiving" student loans means taxpayers--many who didn't go to college--pay the student loans for the former students who get the benefit of the degree earned. I don't get the notion that those poor students didn't understand what they were getting into. As a 17-year-old incoming student, I looked at the financial aid and turned down all but the grants and low-interest loans. I skipped the higher rate guaranteed student loans, which were sizable. I worked. It took me longer to graduate. But I had very little in student debt when I graduated. I have no sympathy for the morons who now complain about their student loan debts. Pay up. And funny enough, working through college ended up paying off for me. Karma? Selling student loan cancellation as "fighting inflation" is offensive. One, Biden caused the majority of inflation. Two, that proposal would worsen inflation. Three, it's just morally wrong. Ef the Biden administration for pushing this.
Yes, Psaki dismissed the death of Specialist Bishop Evans on the Mexican border--where he did trying to save drug smugglers from drowning--because he was being paid by Texas. He was protecting our country. Psaki was being morally repulsive. She'll fit right in at MSNBC.
Hey leftists, Wiemar Germany had censorship laws to suppress Nazi speech. Heck, long ago I read that there was unofficial suppression as wealthy opponents of the Nazis bought up most of the tickets for Nazi speeches to prevent people from hearing the Nazi message. Oh, and once Nazis won power, they enforced the censorship laws. Next stupid--and dangerous--argument against free speech, please. Tip to Instapundit.
Is inter-state conflict in the Middle East going to revive with new military technology available and with America largely out of the region now? Good question. Although I think people over-state how "21st century war" will be so different from the past. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is looking pretty familiar. But this is dumb: "Israel used force to try to transform Lebanon in 1982 and paid for it with 18 years of fruitless guerrilla warfare. The United States did the same in Iraq in 2003 and earned a similar fate." Whatever you want to say about Israel's war--and the defense of an allied buffer zone inside Lebanon doesn't qualify as a guerrilla war--America won its war in Iraq--a fact that is amazingly overlooked by many.
Putin believed many Ukrainians--especially Russian speakers--would welcome Russia with open arms. Wrong: "Social science research from a broad range of scholars conducted prior to Russia’s invasion, however, did not support Russia’s expectations and rather suggested that Ukrainians would strongly oppose Russian occupation and feel loyalty to Ukraine." Indeed, even when Ukraine was part of the USSR, Moscow's Russification efforts there were failing. They failed everywhere but Moldova according to a dry French demographics study I read in the late 1980s--for fun and not for a class. Yeah, I was a fun date back then. Ukraine is not a lost son of Mother Russia eager to go home. How many dead and maimed Russian soldiers will convince Putin that is so?
Biden inherited a recovering economy and a pandemic vaccine. And a year into his presidency our economy shrank. Don't worry, I'm sure this is just transitory. So nice that in addition to Smart Diplomacy® we got Smart Economics.® Tip to Instapundit.
I don't think China is trapped in Ukraine, displaying a lack of power while Moscow is in the "geopolitical driver's seat". Certainly, China is exposed as unable to control its vassal state. But Russia is no more in the driver's seat than Italy was when it sought glory by invading Greece in World War II. China is staying out to avoid having to rescue Putin the way Germany had to rescue Italy; and with some hope Russia will go to war with America before this is over.
Good! "'Bulgaria will be more than happy to have Varna as a logistics hub for grains and sunflowers and distribute all the grains that you cannot through your ports,' Petkov told a joint news conference in Kyiv." Hopefully there are harvests to export. Ukraine should announce that it will not target Russian grain exports.
Some billionaires are more equal than others, comrades!
I knew the figures tossed about when we skedaddled were BS. The BS was an order of magnitude too high: "The US left $7 billion worth of military equipment in Afghanistan following its withdrawal last year, CNN reported, citing a report released by the Pentagon that had been ordered by Congress."
Russia's war on Ukraine has been going on for more than two months. This has been more than enough time for Western "peace" activists to organize "human shield" expeditions to Ukraine's civilian population to protect them from Russian bombardment. I mean, they flowed into Iraq to protect Saddam Hussein from the non-existent threat from America two decades ago. And then they got upset because Saddam wanted to send them to shield valid military targets rather than kitten and puppy sanctuaries. I guess Zelensky isn't as worthy of that concern from "peace" activists.
I'm putting this Correlates of War web site here for my potential interest. In college I flirted with quantitative analysis of war. I had a professor who was a founder of the project and I had a lot of respect for him. I had an independent study under him that I used to explore the issue. I put way more effort than the 1-credit class implies. Those were the days when a liberal professor was capable of teaching an obviously conservative student without politics getting in the way. But I was still in the era of teaching rather than indoctrinating.
The Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar: "The Canadian government will spend $1 billion for a new radar system to protect major population centres in North America, this newspaper has confirmed."
Russia has a history of using attrition to achieve victory no matter the cost to itself, but "there are two necessary conditions for Russia to achieve a victory in an attrition conflict. These are, first, strong domestic stability and support for the war, and second, Moscow’s success in isolating its adversary from international assistance. Neither of these conditions is met in the current war with Ukraine."
The Economist article notes that Russia can't attack elsewhere while bogged down
in Ukraine. And it will take a long time to repair the damage to his
military and make another stab at reforming it. But does it indicate
that Putin will continue to take risks that outside observers (like myself) consider too risky? Or will this war convince Putin that caution
really would be wise?
Could the Army be further advanced in replacing Cold War-era armored vehicles if it hadn't wasted $22 billion on futuristic equipment soldiers see no need to have?
Interesting article: "As some Eastern European nations send their Soviet-era kit to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia’s attack, the new weapons those nations stand to get in return from the United States and its allies could shape the continent’s arsenal for years to come." It didn't occur to me, but America and Britain supplying weapons to Europeans donating arms to Ukraine will undermine European Union plans to displace American weapons--and influence--by going European in equipment. I grant this actual Smart Diplomacy status.
The real enemy: "A U.S. Air Force official managing the A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft says the service is 'hollowing' its Warthog fleet by starving it of resources amid a push to retire the aging attack plane — but still continuing to heavily fly it." The Air Force has a long record of trying to get rid of the A-10, and has apparently decided to love it to death.
The EPA won't help us win wars, but the only part of the government with that job will do the EPA's job: "The Department of Defense is using Friday's celebration of Earth Day
to push for reduced energy consumption across the military, as well as
encourage Congress to fund a raft of programs that would help the agency
prepare for and reduce its impact on climate change." But I'm not conceding any government agency should.
I guess the image of Russian military prowess has bled over to Russia's cyber capabilities: "Russia is known for its army of hackers, but since the start of its invasion of Ukraine, dozens of Russian organizations — including government agencies, oil and gas companies, and financial institutions — have been hacked, with terabytes of stolen data leaked onto the internet." Russia had an image of cyber doom amplified by Biden giving Putin a list of targets not to hit in America. So Putin blew that one, too. Tip to Instapundit.
Meanwhile in Mali where the government prefers Russian mercenaries over the French to fight jihadis: "Six soldiers are dead and 20 wounded after Malian Army bases in the
central cities of Sévaré, Niono, and Bapho were simultaneously attacked
this morning by suspected terrorists."
Life is funny. Democrats claim the January 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol Building was an "insurrection." Yet on the 30th anniversary of the Los Angeles riots, which many on the left proudly call an "insurrection," you never saw the federal government go after those violent rioters with nearly the same passion. Did any get charged with insurrection?
Good: "An ex-general in the Afghan army says he and many other former soldiers and politicians are preparing to launch a new war against the Taliban." If our CIA is smart it funneled money to help them buy from the corrupt and broke Taliban some of the weapons we left behind in our skedaddle debacle. We can circle back to lessen our defeat and maybe win.
The Disinformation Governance Board could have a full time job just dealing with its boss. Tip to Treacher.
Finding and killing: "The Air Force announced Tuesday it will replace part of the E-3 Sentry, or Airborne Warning and Control System, fleet with Boeing E-7 Wedgetails."
The world is throwing panties at armed drones. Not without some reason, I'll add. I was on air defense against swarming drones more than four years ago, in Army magazine.
Maybe: "Putin gambled on Europe not being willing to take the economic pain of cutting itself off from his gas, but the blackmail isn’t working. Russia needs Europe’s markets far more than Europe needs its energy." Can Europe finds new sources of gas before winter? Will America unleash fracking and move gas to Europe? If not, this judgment may prove horribly false by the end of the year.
Developing Phoenix Ghost. It is amazing how infantry squads can carry around their own close air support. Lack of supply and high demand. I still say the Army should get the responsibility and money for close air support aircraft. It would be interesting to see if the Army would put the money in planes like the A-10, helicopters, or drones.
Post-Patriot world? "The Army is pushing a new plan for a future air-defense interceptor that would replace Lockheed Martin-made Patriot missiles[.]"
To China, with love: "The Navy’s latest budget request revealed the next increment of the service’s air-launched, ship-killing missile will be a hypersonic weapon dubbed HALO."
Meanwhile at the Taiwan Strait: "Taiwan's main military drills this year will draw on the experiences of the war in Ukraine, focusing on asymmetric and cognitive warfare as well as use of reserves as it practices fighting off a Chinese attack, a top officer said on Wednesday."
LOL:
I'm reading that the services are having trouble recruiting. The recruiting pool probably doesn't like being accused of being deplorable by their high-ranking military and civilian superiors. But specifically, why would the military be discharging troops who don't want the Xi Jinping Covid vaccine? At some level, I understand that troops have to follow orders. I sure had a lot of shots of unknown purpose. But there should be no mandate for a virus so mild for healthy troops. And the existence of the mandate when the pandemic is waning makes it more bizarre. Foot, meet bullet.
Yeah, yawn. What on Earth could White House reporters possibly write stories about?
Commercial space companies go to war. What I want to know is when will there be the first state-company space war? Tip to Instapundit.
The Russians are going to have to try harder than this BS: "Sergei Naryshkin, the chief of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), cited unpublished intelligence that he said showed the United States and Poland, NATO allies, were plotting to restore Polish control over part of western Ukraine." Every time I hear a Russian official speak, I want to send Ukraine more and better weapons.
The British will send 8,000 troops for exercises to deter Russia: "The British troops will be serving in the Joint Expeditionary Force, a British-led multinational group created in 2014 in response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine."
That's a lot of analysis. But it seems to me that Netflix is declining because it raised prices which seemed to go to shoveling money at leftists to produce crap. Seriously, was Space Force anything more than a chance to mock it's creator, Trump--who's now gone? I downgraded my service to the lowest level after their last price increase. I'm one increase away from dumping it.
Our federal bureaucracies don't seem to do anything well beyond maintaining themselves: "Former President Ronald Reagan used to say that one of the best reasons to cut government was to give it less to do so it can do the rest right." Exactly.
It was nice that Speaker Pelosi visited Kiev. It would have been statesmanship rather than political if she had taken a bipartisan Congressional delegation with her.
I don't buy the issue is the state of living quarters. This ship isn't the first to have crew aboard during maintenance periods: "The commanding officer of the USS George Washington told his crew Thursday that the Navy will begin to move sailors off of the aircraft carrier following a string of suicides and complaints from service members about conditions aboard the ship, whose projected departure from the shipyards has been pushed back once again." This is a symptom of our senior leadership problems.
Ride in to the danger zone: "NATO fighter jets positioned around the Baltic and Black seas scrambled multiple times over four days to track and intercept Russian aircraft flying near allied airspace, NATO said Friday."
Turkey thinks better of making Israel an enemy. They were once allies until Erdogan went hard Islamist against Israel.
The Disinformation Governance Board will find the calls are coming from inside the White House: "Ms. Psaki, you have been found guilty of disinformation. Please report to Ms. Jankowicz for reeducation."
Huh: "President Joe Biden wants Congress to expedite visas for Russian scientists eager to leave their country in the midst of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, an effort to accelerate a brain drain already underway and further deprive President Vladimir Putin of some of Russia’s top talent." I've wondered if Putin with restore Soviet border controls to prevent a brain drain.
Can Europe replace reliance on Russian natural gas this decade? And can the EU lead the way? Of course, I don't think the EU cares about results as much as it wants the power to try.
Well obviously, those non-whites intending to vote Republican are racist-adjacent.
Putin is threatening nukes even as Lavrov drags back the threats. But I don't know what using tactical nukes would do for Russia. These small nukes were useful for attacking headquarters and other such critical battlefield targets where a near miss would be good enough. We got rid of a lot of small tactical nukes when precision weapons got good enough to take out those critical targets. So other than the shock value of using a single nuke, what good would it do? Would Russia actually use scores of them to have an effect? That might scare Russians into overthrowing Putin before he can risk a strategic exchange with America and or Britain and France.
On May Day, let's all remember that communists are murderous dictatorial scum with economic ideas so moronic that they shift entirely into evil.
