Friday, November 13, 2020

Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

South Korea has a new submarine that they built. This is a sign of South Korea's expanding military reach beyond the DMZ.

Ballistic missiles doesn't mean nuclear. But it could be if North Korea goes nuclear. South Korea has a new sub:

South Korea held a ceremony for a new 3,000-ton submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles.

 This is the start of a sea-going navy and not one focused on the flanks of the DMZ:

The South Korean defense minister also said threats are rising in the world's seas, and that Seoul's navy will be "reborn as an advanced ocean navy, with the next generation of Korean destroyers and a 4,000-ton submarine."

I noted this shift in 2007 when South Korea embarked on this blue water program:

South Korea is a major trading power with shipbuilding industries thriving on foreign orders. They just launched a large Aegis-equipped destroyer for their growing fleet.

With a large GDP reliant on trade, South Korea now has the need to have open access to the sea. With a large GDP, South Korea has the means to protect those sea lines of communication. And with China heading out to sea, South Korea has the impetus to build a fleet capable of defending those sea lines of communication.

As I noted more recently, North Korean military weakness allows the shift:

As South Korea's trade has gone global, why is it shocking that South Korea feels a need to have a navy that can contest any efforts to cut them off from the rest of the world?

Yes, there is a point that having a navy would be pointless if North Korea drove south through inadequate South Korean ground forces backed by insufficient air power.

But that isn't the situation, is it? North Korea's military power has rotted away over the last 20 years while South Korean ground power has expanded in quality.

The only reason North Korea still poses a threat is because South Korea's capital, Seoul, is within artillery range of North Korea.

And Seoul has a quarter of South Korea's population (if memory serves me).

But I don't believe North Korea has the ability to take Seoul unless they make massive use of chemical weapons and that use causes the near-complete collapse of the South Korean army. If that happens, North Korea might be able to organize a largely unopposed road march into Seoul.

Oh, and the South Koreans will have a light carrier.

South Korea is becoming a regional power.