Tomorrow we vote, in person as God intended:
Okay, I should at least make an election prediction despite my repeated expressions of my befuddlement at the accuracy of polling for reasons ranging from structure, bias, or reticence of Trump voters. I think Biden will win and prove that Democrats will vote for a ham sandwich with a (D) after it, even for the president. Which is shameful.
Really:
And we will see that the Democrats primed themselves for a coup against Biden after failing to remove Trump with a coup (although the propaganda paved the way for his reelection defeat). Tell me you don't think we'll see a palace coup that either persuades Biden to step down and make way for Harris, or uses the 25th Amendment to remove a stubborn Biden whose feeble mind at least recognizes that he is president as he long desired.
Mind
you, I'll be voting for Trump (unlike the last time), and his supporters should get out there
regardless. I think Trump deserves to win for his accomplishments and
for the insanity and horrible divisiveness of the Democrats.
But I think that despite my hopes to the contrary, that the polls will be accurate enough and that the Democrats will rebuild enough of their "blue wall" stretching from Pennsylvania through Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. I wish I felt otherwise, but there we are.
I really don't think it makes much sense that Americans would elect Harris Biden. It is, as the kids say, inconceivable. I want to believe the majority of the polls are wrong
so badly that I must not trust that hope. I can't ignore that
in 2012 I was sure the polls were wrong because non-poll indicators favored Romney--but they were not predictive. Sure, Biden
is no Obama for motivating people to vote for him. But Trump--through
the distorting lens of the highly and openly partisan media--probably provides enough motivation,
however insane that I think that motivation is, to get out and vote
against him.
I'll hope that the Democrats in victory won't be as awful and hate-filled as they appear they are prepared to be. And I won't forgive them for what they've done from 2016 to 2020 (or to 2024), and hope for the best in future elections.
If Trump wins despite my
pessimism, I will be relieved of course. As I was wrong and relieved four years ago. I don't rule out that the polls really are way off. All those indications tugging at my heart to embrace
might be right. In retrospect we might say they made Trump's win obvious
(and gosh, why on Earth would Trump supporters lie about their voting intent?)
and that the polls were clearly voter suppression tools designed to
discourage Republicans. And if Trump wins, I won't rub it in. I'll just be relieved and grateful.
But I won't provide happy talk when I don't think it is so. I'll vote, of course. It's my duty regardless. Even in a losing effort, every vote counts to deny Biden the chance to claim a "mandate" for massive leftist changes.
Oh, and if Biden wins I won't be screaming at the sky. Not because I don't think he would harm this country and endanger allies. He will. But after getting the president we collectively deserve with the vote as proof--good and hard--we'll survive and recover in time. I won't go nuts because I'm not a moronic fanatic. I did not go clinically insane over Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012. That won't change.
May God bless America. However this turns out.
UPDATE: There are some awful people out there.
UPDATE: Amazingly, the press corps spent the last four years getting even worse.
UPDATE: Yes, our governing class is much worse now. Via Instapundit.
UPDATE: It seems certain (and obvious given the unjust demonization of Trump and his supporters) that there is a secret Trump vote out there. But how big is it?
UPDATE: Faked Biden enthusiasm?
UPDATE: I voted in person. I figured that in Ann Arbor a combination of TDS and Covid panic (with probably a 95% overlap) would lead to overcrowded early voting and easy election day voting.
I've read and heard of lines for early voting. I spent less than 10 minutes in the polling place by my stopwatch. And than included a brief chat with a neighbor I recognized who was there as a poll worker.
And now? Must. Restrain. Day drinking.
UPDATE: Hahaha!
UPDATE: Given how much Democrats rely on the false assertion that Trump has blown the response to the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic, this is a useful correction.
UPDATE: There needs to be an "explainer" so you know long voting lines on election day are normal? Do the American people have the memories of cocaine-addled hamsters?
UPDATE: Late election afternoon and I'm worried that conservative writers are drinking gallons of Koolaid in the hope they draw from various indicators. But I hope they are right.
UPDATE: Early Wednesday morning my prediction is in the ballpark, but it is unknown if I am close to being correct or close to being wrong. Hoping for wrong. A number of states including much of the so-called "Blue wall" are trending Trump but not called. This is where a little bit of voter fraud can be decisive. Hopefully only valid votes are counted. Sending money, guns (for self defense), and lawyers is likely to be the order of the day week.
UPDATE: More early Wednesday. Regarding overseas policies in the context of the War on Terror, I've often spoken of how we need to build systems of rule-of-law democracy and not focus on the man in the big office. Build a good system that relies on ballots rather than bullets, and it survives a bad leader until the people elect a better leader. That holds for America. I can take losing if the other side wins cleanly.
But the behavior of the media, Democratic elected officials, and Democratic bureaucrats has cast that trust into doubt the last four years (and for the media, that's saying something given the bias I've come to see as "normal" all my adult life). So let's make sure that this vote counting counts all the votes--but "votes" has to mean lawfully cast votes.
And let's work on making the system more open and trusted for the future.
UPDATE: I'd be annoyed with the early call of Virginia for Biden except that it was expected and it turns out the call was correct. I think conservatives are annoyed at the wrong thing here. Don't ignore the forest for the trees.
UPDATE: Late Wednesday morning uncalled states are shifting toward Biden.
I will never forgive Never Trumper conservatives who supported Biden. How can you go from not liking Trump's style (I understand) and having disagreements on some policies (I get that, too) to supporting a barely self-aware meat sack with more personal dirt than Trump and whose policies are way out of line with your own? It is insane.
UPDATE: Early afternoon and Michigan still working on count. I don't worry that the state count is corrupted. But local or outside corruption could exist. And errors could be made, especially with the addition of mass mail ballots and early voting on top of day-of-election voting.
UPDATE: Still early afternoon with no resolution in sight. So this uncertainty is the worst-case scenario, as I've heard some say? I don't think so. We aren't out of regular options for resolving this, remember. It will be settled eventually by some path. We aren't facing a dictatorship option. So calm down oh skittish ones.
The worst case would have been a Biden blowout win plus the Senate switching control and Democrats padding their lead in the House. I'd rather have had a blowout Trump win or a narrow but messy Trump win (could be yet) than a narrow but messy Biden win (and that could be yet), but a narrow Biden win at least helped Republicans with Congress and denies a plausible mandate for Biden, preserving some checks and balances. It buys time until 2022 elections.
So it buys time to work the problem, as I always say. Which means for this election outcome and for the next election.
UPDATE: Late afternoon the field is tilting against Trump but he could still pull it out.
To people peeing their pants that Trump's language indicates a pending coup, grow the ef up. He's just saying he thinks he won and doesn't want votes cast after election day counted. And he's right about that. Biden is also expressing confidence he will win in his own semi-lucid way. Is that a coup, too?
Settle down and let the processes play out.
UPDATE: Thursday morning early. The election outcome is still unclear. I'm not anxious at all. Which is in stark contrast to 2000 and the weeks of uncertainty. Perhaps it is because I killed cable TV and don't have news on all the time in the background working me up.
I still doubt Michigan state government corruption explains oddities in vote counting. But silence on explaining the oddities is worrisome. It may be that nobody wants to offer an explanation until they are sure to avoid changing stories. Still, as I've said before, even small private fraud in a close race in a critical state can be decisive even if after it is over you can say it was all 97% peaceful protest lawful voting.
We really need to get rid of voting by mail and go back to same-day or requested absentee ballots. And paper ballots as long as I'm wishing.
UPDATE: And as the morning goes on, I have no idea what is happening in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Governmental corruption at state or local levels is certainly possible. Resistance to "Hitler" demands much, eh? I'm just saying fraud can't be ruled out. This isn't over. I've never complained about losing an honest election. That's all I really demand.
UPDATE: Some of our leftists are getting tired of waiting for election results before rioting and breaking stuff. The bright side of a Biden win would be that Democratic mayors and governors will likely shoot them down in large numbers to the applause of the media.
UPDATE: And contrary to some assertions, Trump is not trying to stop votes from being counted. He's trying to suspend vote counting while his poll watchers are not allowed to make sure fraud isn't taking place.
UPDATE: A lot of overseas military votes are yet to be counted.
UPDATE: Early afternoon and I should say I don't assume corruption or fraud is affecting the vote count. What I am saying is that we need transparency so we have reasonable assurance that the vote count has not been affected by corruption or fraud. My floor objective is always rule of law.
UPDATE: No changes yet. Let the process continue. And remember, every vote does not count--every lawfully cast vote counts. And yes, Pennsylvania is doing something shady that will not hold up to legal scrutiny if challenged no matter how loudly Democrats cry "vote suppression." Suppressing illegal votes is not vote suppression. But if may not matter depending on how other states ultimately vote.
UPDATE: No new states called as of early evening. But God it is good to have a Republican who will fight and not just accept defeat as offered! If Trump loses, it should be because he lost and not because he gave up.
UPDATE: Early Friday morning and Biden has lead of less than a thousand in Georgia. If Trump can't win Georgia, I don't see how he can win. We'll see.
But it is annoying to see liberal media fretting that Trump is undermining the legitimacy of the election by warning of fraud. He's pitching close to brush back the batter in the hope that it will deter fraud and allow more transparency in the count--which will increase the legitimacy of the final vote if we get that transparency.
Stop the tyranny porn already! If Trump was going to rig the election, the election would have been rigged already and won on Tuesday. Trump will step down in January if he loses after all legal means to challenge apparent results are taken.
UPDATE: I'm glad Trump is fighting for the integrity of the vote. And this is true if Trump ultimately wins and it is true if Biden wins. We need to be satisfied that the vote was honest.
And I'll admit to nervousness about the status of the Senate.
Plus, something needs to be done about the power of social media and big tech to censor and push leftist views.
UPDATE: If everything stands as it is now, Biden won. But remember that there is a difference between "widespread" fraud and "decisive" fraud. We should all want this election proven clean so the vast majority of Americans accept the vote as valid.
I doubt if there is widespread fraud in this election. But there could be decisive fraud.
Does Biden want to win or does he want to be the president of all Americans?
UPDATE: I wonder if all the post-election day counting and legal battles will have a good effect regardless of whether Biden or Trump wins by dragging out the decision and diluting the anger that was primed to explode on election night. If you have time to get used to losing, is it easier to accept? And if you have time to get used to winning, is it easier to be less vindictive?
UPDATE: Georgia is counting about 16,000 absentee ballots and overseas military and civilian ballots. So it isn't finalized yet.
UPDATE: Early afternoon and Biden seems to have it if Pennsylvania holds in his column. I admit that I am wary of trusting Pennsylvania. At this point Democrats should want open and thorough inquiry to avoid early Trump concession and the appearance of fraud putting Biden over the top. A hard Trump fight for that, even if futile, is the best thing Trump can do for the country.
And who knows? It might work for him. Which would be even better for the country.
UPDATE: Al Gore in 2000 tried to prevent military ballots from being counted and only wanted to recount in Gore-friendly precincts in Florida. There was no "count all votes" cry despite efforts to rewrite that history now.
But at least the Democrats over the last four years set the standards for how a loyal opposition can act. Although Republicans won't have a friendly media cheerleading every bit of resistance.
UPDATE: Again, I'm glad Trump is fighting the vote counting. At some point if those proper legal challenges don't work he will need to stop fighting the election process and shift to fighting the Democrats--and getting as much done as he can until he leaves office in January.
UPDATE: Why isn't the media slamming Biden for threatening to eject Trump from the White House before Trump has exhausted legal options to contest the vote counts? Isn't that scary tyrant behavior?
UPDATE: Saturday morning, Michigan's state legislature is looking at voting software that flipped 6,000 votes from Trump to Biden. To the county clerk's credit, a Democrat, the error was corrected. Michigan is a pretty honest state. But Detroit and Wayne County are not so high in my confidence.
UPDATE: Last night Biden claimed inevitable victory. Why don't Democrats panic and scream about worries of tyranny? Trump still has legal avenues to contest the election. Mind you, I don't think either Trump or Biden are showing signs of tyrannical tendencies by expressing confidence in winning. But then, I'm sane.
UPDATE: Saturday afternoon early and media outlets have called the election for Biden. Which makes sense based on apparent Electoral College Count. I don't blame them for making the call. But recounts and inquiries into the honestly of the votes in key states are full justified and mean that the election isn't "over" despite the call. I don't give Trump much of a chance to reverse this, but it is a real chance. At the very least we'll have some confidence that the result is real. That is invaluable in this age.
UPDATE: Late afternoon Saturday. I want to reinforce my view that I don't know if there is any fraud which has been decisive for putting Biden over the top--if California has massive fraud in Biden's favor, it wouldn't matter except to pad his popular vote total. But the appearances and opportunity seem to indicate it may exist in key states. Which justifies making sure there isn't--or exposing actual vote irregularities, of course. So have patience. Inauguration is many weeks away in 2021.
UPDATE: Sunday morning. It is annoying that Democrats are saying that the media has declare Biden the winner. That's not how this works. Votes need to be certified. Challenges resolved. Votes recounted. And the Electoral College has to officially cast its votes around the country. It certainly appears that Biden won. I doubt recounts will flip enough states to Trump. And while I don't rule out fraud, I'd want to see clear proof. A lot things that seem suspicious--like this statistical warning light (via Instapundit, who notes Facebook is blocking the link)--may not be. But I do want to know for sure. So let the process continue. This election was close.
