The question should not be "Is Iraq's military good enough for US troops to leave?"
A military is a living force with people moving around, coming in, and leaving all the time. The Iraqi military was good enough when the US military left in 2011. It didn't take long for that military to deteriorate without Coalition oversight to spot and correct problems early. Without America there to watch the officer corps and deter Iran, corruption bloomed and the Iraqi government valued loyalty over competence.
The author details the things that the Iraqi military must get better at after their June 2014 nadir when a quarter of Iraq's military simply collapsed in the north, and little of the rest was militarily proficient.
American and allied forces returned to train and support Iraqi forces, and it took three years to drive ISIL back. And the battle against Iranian influence in Iraq continues, as I discussed, which is also a front against Iran in general.
But leaving shouldn't be our goal, as that author writes:
In August, Trump said that the United States would be “leaving [Iraq] shortly.” But despite the president’s repeated proclamations that his administration is ending the so-called “forever wars,” current and former officials continue to express faith that some form of a long-term U.S. presence in Iraq will remain.
“I don’t think the plan was ever to leave in total,” said one former senior defense official. “I think the plan was always to have a large security cooperation presence there, because we see Iraq as a key cornerstone of our strategic stability strategy for the region, and we can’t afford to have it collapse again.”
Not only should America's military stay in Iraq to keep the Iraqi military on track to avoid a repeat of 2014--which saw ISIL and Iran gain control and influence in that debacle--America should stay to actually exploit our victory there to make the region more secure--and yes, we won the Iraq War.
Let's not make the fight for Iraq and regional stability longer by failing to spend the relatively trivial effort needed to defend what we won in Iraq. And given that America is finally focused on defeating Iran, don't forget that Iraq is now a front in the war against Iran.
And keeping Iraq's military on the line fighting jihadis and Iranian assets is a key objective.
UPDATE: Eric writes that UNSC resolutions still place responsibility for maintaining peace and security in Iraq--and fighting jihadis which is based on different authority not reliant on foreign sources of legitimacy--on America's shoulders. See here also.
Yet we may walk away anyway. Even as Biden may declare Iraq to be one of the great achievements of his administration as he walks away.
