Egypt and Sudan are concerned that Ethiopia is getting a grip on the Nile River water flow that Egypt especially must have to live. Talks on limiting the speed of filling the GERD project and limits on holding back water in droughts are going nowhere.
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan failed to agree on a new negotiating approach to resolve their years-long dispute over the controversial dam that Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile, the three countries said Wednesday.
In late October, the three resumed virtual talks over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam. The renewed talks followed President Donald Trump's comments in which he said downstream Egypt could end up “blowing up” the project, which Cairo has called an existential threat. The remarks angered Ethiopia.
Blowing up the dam seems counterproductive. Ethiopia could mess with the water flowing north to Sudan and Egypt forever even without a dam. But I doubt Egypt could touch the dam without getting Sudan to provide bases. I doubt Sudan would do that.
So I wonder if this crisis is related to the dam dispute:
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has ordered a military offensive, after an army base was taken over by forces loyal to the regional government of Tigray.
Mr Abiy accused the region's ruling party, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), of launching the attack.
The attack resulted in "many martyrs, injuries and property damage", he said in a TV address.
The armed forces of a regional government assaulted a national government base?
And the BBC says the Nigerian federal government struck back:
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says there have been airstrikes on military targets in Tigray state, whose leaders have fallen out with the national government.
"Fallen out." Now that's British understatement.
I wonder if Egypt and/or Sudan are involved in this to put pressure on Ethiopia to come to a dam agreement?
The conflict pits two heavily armed forces against each other in the heart of the strategic but vulnerable Horn of Africa region, and experts worry that neighboring countries, including Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia could be sucked in.
Would Egypt try to exploit an expanding civil war to deal with the GERD "threat?"
UPDATE: Ethiopia has reshuffled three top security leadership positions.
UPDATE: Sudan fears up to 200,000 refugees from the fighting.
UPDATE: Could Ethiopia break up under ethnic stress fissures? If so, what part will control GERD? That would certainly make it easier for Egypt to get a dam deal it can live with. Which again makes me wonder if Egypt has any role in the Tigray crisis.
