China's ever increasing spending on modern weapons and military equipment gives the illusion of growing military power. It is very much an illusion. The 2.3 million troops in the Chinese armed forces are poorly trained and led. China has a long history of corruption and rot in the military during long periods of peace. The last time the Chinese military has been in action was 1979 (when they attacked Vietnam, and got beaten up pretty bad). You could count the encounter, in the Spring of 2001, where a Chinese fighter buzzed an American navy patrol aircraft, and managed to collide with the U.S. plane, and crash (the U.S. aircraft landed, despite its damage.)
American sailors are constantly exposed to examples of the poor training and leadership in the Chinese navy, whenever they encounter Chinese warships at sea. Foreigners living in China, and speaking Chinese, can pick up lots of anecdotes about the ineptitude and corruption found in the military. It's all rather taken for granted. But in wartime, this sort of thing would mean enormous problems for the troops, when they attempted to fight.
Once again, I have to say that I don't disagree with a word of this analysis. Our military is far superior to China's and China's problems with training would lead to a lopsided clash if it comes to war with America in the near future. I have always enthusiastically endorsed continuous and realistic training. A well trained military with adequate weapons will win wars. a poorly trained military with advanced weapons will leave lots of its own burning and expensive equipment on the battlefield or slagged to the bottom of the sea. China's weakness in skill combined with an overall deficit in advanced weapons does not bode well for them in a shoot out with American units.
I will go further. China's strategic situation is really bad. I would never trade our position with China's. We have Cuba and Venezuela to our south as irritants on our home front. China has South Korea, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, and India as potential enemies all around their perimeter. So China must deploy land, sea, and air forces to face more potential threats.
But despite all this, China is still a threat to us. The reason is that if China grabs Taiwan, it sends a powerful signal to the region that China is a rising power and America and our allies are too weak to stop China. China will gain a power projection base to extend their reach further out to sea. Now, if China had to fight America and/or Japan to take Taiwan, the training and technology deficit of China would shatter their military. But China, if it can win quickly enough, only has to beat Taiwan--not America or Japan--to achieve a signal victory that shows China will dominate the western Pacific and not America and our allies.
Does anybody think the Taiwanese are really an Asian version of the Israelis? Amazingly, lots do. Taiwan spends little on defense and has a military that does not train hard. They have poor infrastructure (such as lack of aircraft shelters) and little ammunition for what they have.
This is why I hammer on the idea that Taiwan must build up its defenses. If the Taiwanese can hold off the Chinese long enough to let America or Japan intervene, China will lose based on the factors that Strategypage highlights. Right now it appears that the likely casualties that China would endure deters the Chinese from attacking. The problem is that internal Chinese developments could change that number overnight. Right now, 21,000 dead is too much for Peking to accept to take Taiwan. What if internal unrest develops and the Chinese decide a foreign adventure is needed to retain control? When losing power is the alternative, losing 21,000 dead to achieve a long-held objective that could prove the regime is in control might be a bargain in their view.
The Taiwanese hold their future in their own hands. We can't save them if they won't seriously fight to defend themselves.
