This is both incomprehensible as a matter of facts and disturbing for its consequences if true:
The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key allies in the region.
Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose any war with China.
First of all, is this assessment coming from the Tokyo Governor? The article isn't really clear. The article says:
Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.
What "officials?" And if so many are convinced we are on the losing side in the correlation of forces, as the Soviets put it, why are Australia, India, Japan, and Singapore all forging closer defense relations with America? Even South Korea has troops in Iraq, and despite increased anti-Americanism they seem steady enough as long as North Korea is looming--certainly more reliable than the French were in NATO under the Soviet threat.
The reasoning for the governor's stated assessment of our chances to beat China? He said:
"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives," Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American cities—even at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation.
The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.
First of all, the idea that the US Army, which has set the land-speed record in the Middle East in two wars since 1991 is "extremely incompetent" is extremely ignorant. I mean, it is one thing to point out specific weaknesses, but a blanket statement such as this betrays sheer stupidity. The US Army is the best in the world right now in tactics, weapons, training, and combat experience.
And the idea that there are millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die is sheer idiocy, too. The Chinese are downsizing their ground forces and right now, "millions" is quite literally a couple million. And as I've read, the Chinese are still smarting over the Korean War when the Chinese tried that whole "wave" idea and were slaughtered by US troops far less trained than today's American soldier.
Besides, just where would millions of Chinese foot soldiers confront us? Any war would be a naval and air clash, leaving little opportunity for mythical millions to go over the top.
And the idea that the Chinese might launch a few of their nuclear missiles at us and then survive a massive American retaliatory strike is even dumber than the earlier analysis. China is no longer a massive lump of proletarian fury ready to absorb any strike and keep a backward economy going. China's economy is far more vulnerable to attack and a nuclear strike on Chinese soil would be devastating now. We're long past the point where Mao envisioned that peasants could emerge from bunkers and carry on the war after a few hundred million Chinese die.
And though some in America are eager to run after 2,000 casualties, we haven't run yet and I think we will win before that pressure is too great. And in our history, many people--including the Japanese in 1941--have experienced ruin on the assumption that America will not suffer casualties to gain victory.
Finally, the idea that our civic society will not allow us to kill for victory needs only two words that the Tokyo Governor should appreciate: "Hiroshima" and "Nagasaki." Toss in "Dresden" if you think we won't use nukes.
Really, there is a lot of idiocy in one small article.
Unfortunately, if the Chinese believe this assessment is true, they will risk war with America. As I've noted, China will decide what is a rational course of action--not us. So Chinese leaders may read this article and lap it up, bolstering their apparent belief that no matter how superior our military power is, their superior will to win will bring them victory.
We will slaughter Chinese in order to win if Peking chooses war with America, just as we've wiped the floor with past enemies.
My assessment at least has history to bolster it. I have no idea where a Tokyo Governor gets his information. It isn't reality-based, in my opinion.
