When a lot of tanks are lost in combat, people say tanks are obsolete. Rely on the new drones, they say now.
To be fair, people have been saying tanks are obsolete for a long time. Even before World War II when the development of anti-tank guns led some analysts to say they were doomed. But the tanks that restored movement to the trench-dominated Western Front in World War I by providing a means to lead and protect infantry across fire-swept No Man's Land between the trench lines have evolved since then.
But drones are the latest weapon to prove tanks can't provide battlefield victories. This time for sure! Is this true?
Well, we don't hear much about the Turkish wonder weapon, the Bayraktar TB2 drone these days:
While Russia was vulnerable to strikes from Ukrainian drones in the early months of the war, it soon adapted to improve its electronic warfare and has since been successfully downing and jamming many of Ukraine's drones.
Well:
Russia’s use of tech defense systems has contributed to the staggering loss of Ukrainian aerial drones — approximately 10,000 each month, according to the latest Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report.
I'm sure many if not most of those losses are small and cheap/expendable drones. But still, that's a lot. Yet in war, people die and weapons are destroyed. The key is whether using and losing them achieves the objective.
Drones are useful. But they get destroyed like any other weapon. America lost plenty of tanks and armored vehicles in World War II. Which was the last time we faced peer
enemies. But tanks were important for attacking and defending.
And Russia forgot that tanks have a purpose and that even losing some is necessary:
Though Russia has used some its older tanks to support breach operations in urban combat, such as in Bakhmut, tanks are largely being used as artillery and fire support and to raid Ukrainian positions.
While this approach helps reduce losses, it prevents Russia from leveraging the firepower, mobility, and shock factor that tanks bring to the table to deliver breakthroughs and exploit gains on the battlefield, limiting Russia's overall offensive capability.
We shall see how Ukraine operates them in their counteroffensive. And how Russia uses its tanks to meet the assaults. Tanks will be knocked out. But who achieves something decisive by using--and losing--them?
The tanks that armies operate now may become obsolete. But before they fade away, something needs to provide a replacement mobile and protected firepower on the battlefield. Otherwise, we will face a high-tech World War I Western Front stalemate. Until it devolves to look much more like the original.
Maybe losing lots of tanks every month will look like a great alternative to that kind of future static firepower-reliant battlefield.
Perhaps, as tanks have done since the first massive armored lozenges designed just to cross No Man's Land appeared, future "tanks" will look much different than the behemoths that are currently the pinnacle of tank design.
Although the future tanks might reflect old tank design philosophy.
Or maybe we will find a replacement for the tank as we broadly define it today and preserve maneuver as an option.
I don't pretend to see the future. Except to know that a future battlefield without mobile, protected firepower is a static Hellscape of death and battle fatigue--and little to show for it.
NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
