Huh: " I was surprised to learn that the Marine Corps claimed to have
validated its Force Design (FD) 2030 concept based on a few war games
and became alarmed about the fact that the current commandant of the
Marine Corps has undertaken a radical restructuring of the service
having used the games to justify his actions." Tip to Instapundit. I have concerns. Although perhaps the Marine war games are secret because the small Marine anti-ship detachments are really designed to be inserted to operate on Taiwan. But I'm speculating.
It's science, damn it! "New research reveals that Uranus takes a pounding more frequently than previously thought." Via Instapundit.
I noticed a video on YouTube that argued the Middle East is doomed to forever wars because of the borders drawn by former European colonial powers. This is a common accusation. One, I'm annoyed America often gets blamed though we had nothing to do with that. Two, you're telling me that in the more than 60 years these countries have all been independent that none of them wants to negotiate with neighbors to put their borders "where they're supposed to be"? Sounds like a convenient excuse for everyone in the region to demand more land, eh?
Is this what our farcical media is going with? "Biden’s quirky aphorisms are sometimes weaponized by Republicans to
insinuate the 80-year-old president is in mental decline. But Biden has
been using unique phrases for years — but even some of his aides aren’t
exactly sure what he means by them." Republicans pounce. Okay.
An interesting article about how Russia is improving its tactics. But the article then walks back the opening framing quite a bit. Russia is better in some ways and worse in others.
Mali wants the UN peacekeeping force out of Mali.
The government kicked the French out and now will rely on Wagner. Which
doesn't care about corruption--quite the reverse. How soon will
migrants be flowing through Mali and Libya to flood Europe? Corrupt Mali officials will get rich. Wagner will funnel money and arms to Russia, and encourage migrants to punish Europe for supporting Ukraine. Remember, while AFRICOM is an economy-of-force front (its motto is "Thank God for SOUTHCOM!"), it is still a front that needs forces to block our enemies and foes. About those enemies.
The British think both sides in the Winter War of 2022 are suffering high casualties. But: "Russian losses are probably at their highest level since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March, U.K. military officials said in their regular assessment." Based on news reporting, you'd think only the Ukrainians were getting hammered as Russia largely holds the line.
Retired Army General Jack Keane opposes a new Iran nuclear deal: "To give them another windfall of cash like we did as a result of the 2015 nuclear deal, which led to an expansion of their proxy wars in the Middle East, it doesn’t make any sense. It’s not in our national interest[.]" Our government lied to us or to itself when it denied Iran would stoke more mayhem with more cash from the first deal.
I wondered if Russia's fortifications would be well sited, built, and defended. Well, this report says they are "formidable." And so far against what appears to be limited Ukrainian attacks, are being defended. If all this remains true, Ukraine may have erred in giving Russia time to prepare. Only "may" because unless Ukraine could have attacked earlier with a greater advantage than they have now, Ukraine had to give Russia time because Ukraine needed time more.
Thank God elections have become impossible to rig since then! Tip to Instapundit.
An Iran nuclear deal 2.0 that rewards Iran for pretending it isn't pursuing nuclear weapons won't turn Iran into a responsible regional power. Goodness lessons just won't work on the mullahs. No matter how much Democrats oddly love them.
Sure, June 19th, 1865 ("Juneteenth") is not the technical end of slavery in America because Union states with slaves had yet to free their slaves. But practically speaking, with a bloody war to end slavery completed, ending slavery in the last Confederate state was the symbolic and effective end of slavery in America. States with slavery that joined the Union were not going to hang on to their slaves when the armies defending slavery were defeated and gone home. Juneteenth is a fine holiday to mark this accomplishment. Especially when you consider mostly African-American Union troops marching in to inform African-origin slaves that they too were free citizens contrasted with dry state procedural actions.
If the Russian people are becoming passive in the face of Putin's decision to keep feeding their men into the meat grinder of Russian tactics in the Winter War of 2022, what makes you think those same people will rise up in regional independence movements? I mean, perhaps the latter will happen--which is too dangerous to want--but I don't think the passivity for the former is necessarily its cause. Tip to Instapundit.
My old assessment of Russia's failure to drive on Tbilisi in the 2008 Goons of August War sure telegraphed Russia's reaction to failure in the current Winter War of 2022: "The Russians may not have had enough troops to just press on in a frontal assault after their initial losses."
China wants to stabilize relations with America. China must be hurting economically. What can Russia possibly offer compared to America and the West?
Huh: "A United Nations expert said on Monday that the Taliban's treatment of Afghan women and girls could amount to gender apartheid as their rights continue to be gravely infringed by the country's de facto authorities." So no Taliban 2.0?
I'm really not worried that Chinese special forces will infiltrate America and arm commercial drones to harass us by bombing targets. Matches and gasoline would be more effective. But I am worried that the continental United States is no longer a sanctuary for power projection.
Taiwan's defense dilemma. I'm not overly impressed with the Porcupine Strategy. Luckily Ukraine didn't go that way. I think Taiwan's biggest defense dilemma is defining what a Chinese victory in an invasion means.
It is interesting that land in the Kakhovka Reservoir at the east end is emerging as the water drains through the breached Kahkhovka dam. Check out the map of the Zaporizhia southern front. Will that eventually open up a dry land western flank around Russian defensive belts? I mean, no roads. And maybe it remains too marshy for anything but special forces and scouts. But it is interesting. And I suppose I shouldn't assume only Ukraine can exploit that potential avenue.
"Quirky aphorisms" all around us (via Instapundit):
Perhaps I was hasty in thinking China is desperate for good relations with America: "Washington had to bribe Beijing to even get this meeting: It has played down Beijing’s intensifying intelligence-gathering (the Cuba spy base, the spy balloon, China’s 'secret police' stations inside our country) and is delaying the declassifying of intelligence on COVID’s origins." And more concessions. Including throwing Taiwan under the bus a bit. And China expects more. It's all very odd.
It is disgraceful that we can't repair and build ships in the quantity we need (via Instaupndit). Yep. And operating the ones we have seems "problematic", as the kids say these days.
Reports that Russia continues to strip troops from the Kherson front behind the flooded Dnieper River to stop Ukrainian attacks speaks to the lack of Russian troops in Ukraine. Ideally one has reserves behind the front. But even in the face of relatively small Ukrainian troops, Russia's reserves aren't enough? Russia has to move troops laterally across the front? Eventually Ukraine could take advantage of this.
The discussion about so many young Chinese males being unfit for military service astounds me. Likewise reports in America. I was no young muscle-bound man when I joined. Yet I was considered fit for recruitment and passed the physical tests with flying colors. How is it possible young men can't do what I did? That's frightening.
Iran bought two old French A340-212 long-range transport jets: "France didn’t discover that the Indonesian firm that bought the two
airliners was secretly owned by Iran, as was the company in the central
African nation of Mali where the aircraft were supposed to go." Or Iran could fly them to North Korea to pick up nuclear warheads. Or to wherever North Korea managed to sneak them to closer to Iran.
BALTOPS 2023 ended: "The U.S. Navy and its NATO allies and partners wrapped up their annual maritime-focused exercise in the Baltic region Friday."
Nome, Alaska will be America's first deep water port on the Arctic.
Will Putin avoid military defeat by declaring victory based on "demilitarizing" Ukraine with his war, and turning around and going home? At least as far as the pre-February 24 borders? I certainly wondered that myself.
Securing America's domestic munitions production.
Is this what those stories about an American missile sub going to South Korea meant? "Ohio-class guided-missile submarine USS Michigan (SSGN-727) arrived in Busan, South Korea, Friday, the Navy announced." Because I thought it was to be an SSBN. Or did I miss an SSBN port call or forget it? This is pointless. But I thought the nuclear missile-armed SSBN visit would be really stupid.
At least our banana republic rulers feel they need to pretend there is rule in law.
No wonder Democrats want more gun control laws. Or more of any type of law. They know they will only apply to the icky people. Note to Ben Franklin: we're struggling on that "keep it" part.
The U.S. says it could take months to get F-16s to Ukraine. This might speed it up.
If he's serious about air defense, he'll support this through NATO: "French President Emmanuel Macron called on European nations Monday to seek more independence on airspace defense and advocated against relying too much on the U.S." If Macron doesn't want NATO involved, we all know why.
Lieutenant John R. Fox's bravery and patriotism is belatedly recognized with the Medal of Honor. A firm commitment to understanding everyone in the Army is a Green-American soldier would help prevent future injustice.
Survey says ... the Navy Surface Warfare Officer community needs to be whipped into shape. I'm just spitballing here, but maybe focusing on defeating enemy navies would help.
Say, timely news that AFRICOM is still in business: "The United States military wrapped up its largest annual joint exercise in Africa on Friday, one marked by a few firsts for the continent-wide drill[.]"
Hard to argue with this assessment: "Iraq has two major problems, one external and the other internal. Neighboring Iran is ruled by a religious dictatorship that condones aggressive interference in neighboring countries. Iraq has long been the main recipient of this meddling. Iran has long sought more economic and political influence in Iraq. This is made easier by Iraq’s internal problem with corruption. Historically what is now known as Iraq was seen as the most corrupt region in the Middle East, if not the world."
The war to attack and defend GPS signals.
Close enough for NATO work: "A pair U.S. Air Force B-1 bombers kicked off a historic deployment this week, touching down in Sweden on June 19."
How is it even possible that the builders can't be trusted to build a reliable davit (crane) for the Coast Guard??!!
Death to the icky carbon people. Greta can go to Hell. I can say that now because she is technically an adult. Tip to Instapundit.
Iranian efforts to dominate Iraq have been reported in the media: "While the thesis and, in some cases, the headlines are breathless, the alarmism is unwarranted." Fingers crossed. I know there is a lot of Iraqi resistance to Iran. I can't rule out that the media effort is made to make us give up on holding Iraq despite our fragile success: "Iraq is a democracy, albeit an imperfect one. Iraq today likely has more retired prime ministers than any other Arab country. While the system is convoluted, Iraqis enter elections not knowing whom their next leader will be." Or perhaps the reason for alarmism is to make a new Iran nuclear deal built on an Iranian "concession" to refrain from taking over Iraq seem like a good bargain.
I'm in favor of helping Ukraine defeat Russia. But I don't like this precedent: "The Pentagon said Tuesday that it overestimated the value of the weapons
it has sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the past two years — about double early estimates — resulting in a surplus that will be used for future security packages." No way that could be used to bypass Congress for any other spending, right? Right??
Europeans still need America to help them defend their continent. Sure. But let's consider consequences of walking away. Let's recall the Twentieth Century when Europeans could wage war all on their own. And now imagine the price of not spending a relative pittance of our defense dollars to hold our Great Wall of Europe?
The extensive discussion of racism similar to the incident without actually mentioning the race of the suspects for the actual incident leads me to assume the accused are not actually white.
The fact that SOUTHCOM gets LCS assigned to it speaks of how low the Navy values the troubled LCS.
Will America restore nuclear cruise missiles to the fleet?
The Government Accountability Office slammed the U.S. missile defense system. This is a problem. The continental United States is no longer a sanctuary for power projection.
More on the AUKUS deal, including the advantage having a shipyard in Australia capable of handling Virginia subs. Our two shipyards for that are on the east coast.
Missile magnets: "In Ukraine, Russian commanders made a lot of mistakes and one of the most fatal, and personal, was not making an effort to conceal their field headquarters. The Ukrainians took advantage of this and during an eight month period in 2022 attacked Russian command posts over twenty times, killing ten generals and 152 colonels and lieutenant-colonels along with hundreds of lower ranking staff officers." What I don't learn is whether the Russians belatedly adapted to this problem. I'm assuming the answer is yes, more or less.
The Air Force will cut Tactical Air Control Party personnel by 44% because it is retiring the A-10. Huh. I thought the Air Force said the F-35 could do the job. Won't forward air controllers still be needed? Like I said, it's always been a matter of trust and not about a specific plane.
Small USVs would have to travel pretty fast to be useful as a "nonlethal" ram, wouldn't they? And why would the Chinese warship commander assume this ram was not equipped with a warhead? Wouldn't that attack on a Chinese warship lead the commander to fire at the USV and any other American warship nearby? I am skeptical.
I know Greta Thunberg's prediction of climate doom by 2023 was not about the immediate end of the world. It was a claim that without immediate action taken by 2023 the world would inevitably be doomed. Which is fine. Since we missed the deadline, would she and her ilk please shut up and go away? Because it apparently is futile to go along with their "green" plans. Let's enjoy our tragically brief time left on this planet.
Xi shouldn't get his hopes up over the meeting: "A U.S. Coast Guard ship sailed through the Taiwan Strait a day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken completed a trip to Beijing during which he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping[.]"
The Japanese and Europeans took a closer look at Mercury.
Good news and still-bad-but-a-little-better in Philippines security.
The battle for Russian battlefield logistics.
Tip to Instapundit, is China a "dying paper dragon"? I've long been a China skeptic, and I may have underestimated their problems. But if China is going down from demographic and financial disaster, what comes next for China? Again, I'll again suggest the option of "all of the above." But remember that decline may be relative. Japan faltered from its rise to surpass America. But it is still an economic power and a growing military regional power. China may also muddle along. And be dangerous to someone if not directly to America.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine may be stumbling, but Russia's Anschluss with Belarus is on the surface tightening every day.
Aside from restoring democracy, Brexit has benefited Britain. And if Britain chooses, it can achieve even more freed from the for-now, proto-imperial EU. The propaganda of Remainers to bend the knee to Brussels has been amazing to behold.
The Marine Corps Commandant is surprised by the "lack of trust" in the Marine Corps over its radical restructuring? Oh? Trust? That's the response from the top rather than addressing criticisms? Doctrine and organization is now a matter of faith? This erodes the trust I have and I grow more and more concerned.
Russia no longer wants to let you know how much war spending is pushing Russia into deficit spending (via Instapundit). I've said for a long time not to assume Russia can outspend or out-die smaller Ukraine.
Trouble On China's Belt and Road: "Nations in the middle corridor, the countries of Central Asia and the Caucuses, have been reluctant to sign big ticket infrastructure deals with China after watching Beijing saddle countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka with massive amounts of debt that have stymied economic growth and led to bankruptcy."
Welp, stupidity's been MIRVed. Tip to Instapundit.
Global nuclear warhead count. North Korea has 30? What delivery system works? Aircraft? Short-range missiles? I don't think ICBMs are working. As for China, despite earlier reports of massive expansion of their nuclear arsenal, they seem to want ICBMs for conventional fires: "A recent effort to calculate how many nuclear warheads China has concluded that they have not been producing enough plutonium for an expansion of their nuclear warhead inventory[.]"
Sanctuary city sends illegal immigrants seeking sanctuary away. Tip to Instapundit.
And now for something completely different:
Russia has gone from China's friend without limits to China's liability without limits. And now, after the Wagner insurrection, Russia is China's neighbor without limits to internal chaos. Shouldn't Putin be worried about China adjusting its foreign policy toward the Russia China has?
I doubt Ukraine will have an easier time at the front because of the Wagner insurrection. My limited experience in uniform included going into the field for an FTX the morning after the communist coup started in 1991. I knew the coup was starting, but my entire pre-Internet world was focused on getting our signal equipment working. This viewing the world through a straw is common in the military--especially in combat. So unless Russian leadership effs things up behind the lines, I think there is a good chance Russian troops still holding the front are unaffected by the Wagner coup attempt. At least in the short run. Much depends on whether Prigozhin was a symptom of deeper problems in Russia's society rather than the prime actor in the drama.
Will enough North Koreans decide that they have nothing left to lose? "North Korea is getting sick of tyranny and they aren’t afraid to show it to the state police apparatus."
Chutzpah: "Afghanistan's supreme leader said Sunday the country's women were being
saved from 'traditional oppressions' by the adoption of Islamic
governance and their status as 'free and dignified human beings'
restored."
Hate: "Over the last three years, the 27 member states of the EU (European Union) have seen an increase in Islamic terrorist activity."
A reminder of what lack of rule of law means for determining who has power: "Clashes, artillery fire and air strikes surged in Sudan's capital on Sunday, witnesses said, as a war between rival military factions that has displaced 2.5 million people and caused a humanitarian crisis entered its 11th week."
ISW thinks the Wagner insurrection will hurt Russian troop morale: "Prigozhin’s rebellion has illustrated that Russian forces lack reserves in many rear areas and almost certainly will degrade the morale of Russian personnel in Ukraine[.]" I've noted that Russia's lateral movement of forces from Kherson to deal with Ukraine's limited counter-attacks indicates a shocking lack of reserves.
Interesting: "Lukashenko will likely seek to use the de-escalation of the armed rebellion to advance his goals, such as delaying the formalization of the Russia-Belarus Union State or preventing Putin from using Belarusian forces in Ukraine."
Note to Democrats: The Wagner Insurrection is what an actual insurrection looks like.
