China counts on Russia as a giant rear area for a confrontation with the United States. The Belt and Road project uses Russia to reach trading partners in Europe. But Russia's brutal war on Ukraine has shocked the conscience of the West and reminded the West that hard power is not obsolete and that autocrats are dangerous. History restarted in Bucha and China knows its rear area is not controlled by a partner. What does China do now with Russia? The need for a safe rear area remains.
Before [Xi] flew to Moscow, he lashed out at what he called the "all-round containment, encirclement and suppression" of China by Western countries. He needs Putin, above all else, as a partner in that fight.
China needs Russia as an asset in that fight. It could be as a partner. Or it could be as a vassal. Either way works for China. China decided investing in the former isn't worth the price.
The Biden administration directly warned China on several occasions not to provide Russia with military assistance. And after careful and repeated consideration over slightly more than a year, China has weighed the costs and benefits and complied with the threat.
Given the problems from supplying Russia, Russia's foundering in Ukraine is threatening to make Russia China's liability without limits. Is China really ready to subsidize Russia's war with the risks China runs doing so?
For now, China will not.
Putin has made the latter vassal status far more likely far more rapidly than Russia feared. We'll see how well that works for Russia. Or for Putin.
And it doesn't even matter if Russia defeats Ukraine now. A quick win would have helped Putin be a partner to China. Europe may have then bowed to the new reality and welcomed Chinese trade to be a counter-weight restraining Russia. You did see what Macron tried to do, right?
Russian victory no longer matters because Putin's invasion has done so much damage to Ukraine, with destruction, death, and horrifying human rights violations that the West will not forgive and reach out to Russia any time soon. Indeed, a Russian defeat is more likely to result in that outcome.
The "no limits" partnership is no such thing:
Russia has become not so much even a junior partner as an outright vassal to China.
Putin put Russia on that path even before he invaded Ukraine by his insane vendetta against NATO.
The big question remains unanswered. If Russia isn't a partner--not even a junior partner--worthy of major Chinese support, what is it? Is this a setback for China or an opportunity?
Russian stumbles in Ukraine perhaps amplify the immediacy of that history [of Russia's 19th century annexation of Chinese territory]. Sure, a "war-ravaged Russia has no strategic value to China." But with NATO energized and Russia flailing, China's assumptions about its rise to power are derailed. Might China alter its plans as its assumptions change? A war-ravaged Russia is a strategic opportunity for China.
Russia isn't even a Chinese highway to customers in the West. As I warned six years ago:
Really, if China is putting a lot of money into building trade routes to Europe, is China going to be happy with Russian military adventures in Europe and the Middle East that threaten Chinese trade?Will Russia be lucky enough to be just a vassal that provides cheap energy and raw materials to China? And which surrenders to Chinese influence in the former Soviet "Stans"?
Or does it get much worse for Russia? I mean, as much as China is oddly a revisionist power given the benefits it has gained in the current system, maybe China has enough problems that will push China to revise its position within the current system at Russia's expense rather than challenging the current system defended by America and its allies.
NOTE: The image was created using DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
