In a magical world where Russia wasn't brutally attacking a sovereign member of the international community, violating pledges to respect Ukraine's borders with a war with heavy casualties, committing rampant war crimes and inflicting widespread damage, and making delusional justifications for attacking Ukraine, I could accept a need to understand Russia's need to feel secure.
In theory, this is reasonable:
As the international community mulls how to jump-start this [negotiations] process, it is important to remember that peace can only be achieved by making both Ukraine and Russia feel secure. Both of them. Not one of them.
Russia watched NATO disarm but still believed it was marching toward Moscow because former Soviet vassal states didn't want Russia to take back what the Soviets lost. If America had provided zero security assistance aid to Ukraine, Russia still would have feared a NATO plot. If NATO had disbanded, Russia would have convinced itself that it was a clever American plot to remove the restraints the alliance placed on American plots to destroy Russia.
There is no geographical advance that would calm Russian paranoia.
So I disregard Russian paranoia as something America must consider when deciding policy because Russian paranoia is an internal issue beyond our control. Describing American policy toward Russia in public should consider Russian paranoia. But not the basic policy.
I have long believed that no territorial concession can sate Russia's endless appetite for that precious feeling of security.
Face it, Russia will eventually call our effort to make them feel secure a giant trap to stab them in the back. Only when Russia is clearly defeated can the West intervene to reassure them that Ukraine only wants Russia out of Ukraine.
I once thought a more balanced approach could work to resolve the Russia-Ukraine dispute. But Russia's brutal war has changed my mind. It astounds me that a view that was completely reasonable before this latest invasion and even perhaps early in the war can still be embraced as if nothing has changed. Making Russia feel secure isn't a high priority.
I want Russia to first feel defeated in Ukraine. Then, because Russia has nukes, we can spare a thought for Russian feelings of security.
But somehow, Putin isn't paranoid about China. Go figure.
NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
