We are focused on Iran's level of uranium enrichment. After all this time raising the issue and warning the Iranian mullah-run government, the Iranians know that. But somehow we believe Iran has taken no steps to account for that focus.
Israel claims Iran has enough enriched uranium--if further enriched--for five nukes:
On a visit to Athens on Thursday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his Greek counterpart Nikos Panagiotopoulos that Iran has enriched enough uranium for five nuclear bombs, warning that the Islamic Republic intends to continue the enrichment process.
“Make no mistake: Iran will not be satisfied by a single nuclear bomb. So far, Iran has gained material enriched to 20% and 60% for five nuclear bombs. Iranian progress and enrichment to 90% would be a grave mistake on Iran’s part and could ignite the region,” said Gallant.
US officials have maintained that Iran has accelerated its enrichment but that it remains unclear if Tehran has decided to cross the weaponization line.
Sigh. Iran has been running massively costly nuclear and missile programs, counting the direct costs, the lost opportunities for investments in productive areas, and the costs of sanctions.
But it is somehow unclear if Iran wants nuclear missiles? Well, no. US officials often say it is unclear if Iran intends to cross the weaponization line. But that's different than saying Iran doesn't want nukes.
Yes, crossing the weaponization line is dangerous. Iran may think that because Democrats love mullah-run Iran, persistently believing Iran a close friend we haven't tried hard enough to make, that their nuclear weapons infrastructure is safe from America.
But the Iranians can't afford to assume that Israel can be restrained by America.
My old speculation is that Iran knows uranium enriched enough for warheads is a red line for Israel. So enriched uranium may be a red herring and long-range program that hides the initial Iranian nuclear arsenal:
If Iran can announce both the ability to make nuclear bomb material and the possession of actual nuclear weapons--perhaps by detonating one in a test on their own territory--Tehran would quite possibly deter an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
We're not dealing with idiots. If the Iranian mullahs believe there are red lines that trigger Israeli or American action, why wouldn't they take counter-actions rather than just blindly cross those lines and provide a pretext for military action against them?
I do wonder if North Korea has an export market for their nukes in mind. That's a big lacuna in our approach, no?
And I wonder if those "US officials" know damn well that an Iranian decision to cross the weaponization line is a red herring masking the obvious goal of buying nuclear missiles first.
I really think there are US officials who believe Iranian nukes will be a stabilizing factor in the Middle East that will promote everybody to just sit down and resolve all their disputes like reasonable people.
Which is another lacuna in our approach. A deliberate one. But a gaping hole in our logic nonetheless.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: I really don't think international pressure is keeping Iran from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.
Announcing nuclear warheads before having reliable missiles to carry them is a more likely explanation:
Iran on Thursday unveiled a new ballistic missile that can reportedly strike targets within 2,000 kilometers, or 1,240 miles, according to media reports.
Missiles are a key portion of my speculation above.
NOTE: The illustration was made with DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
