They aren't a magic wand: "Here come more sanctions: How effective are they are stopping Russia's invasion of Ukraine?" They can't stop the invasion. Before the war I was skeptical that sanctions could stop Russia. Experts were so sure they would that my confidence was shaken. But my skepticism was correct. They do impose a cost on the invader. Which is good enough.
It's a big job: "The Royal Australian Navy faces the greatest challenge of the Australian Defense Force as it pursues a nuclear-powered submarine fleet, according to the nation’s latest defense blueprint."
Even if Australia never operates its own SSNs, this will be useful: "As part of the AUKUS agreement, US and British subs will operate out of western Australia by 2027."
The fighting in Sudan continues: "Sudan's army is resisting an attempt by paramilitaries to advance towards its main airbase near the capital Khartoum, residents have said." Is this a wider civil war or primarily a fight for the capital? The article mentions two other cities. I don't know and haven't looked.
Another authority undermined by the left's insatiable desire to score political points no matter the damage it does to institutions. Tip to Instapundit.
Additional American aid package for Ukraine. Ammo, equipment for crossing obstacles, and medical and transportation support, mostly.
North Korea moves half the distance to the goal line collapse--again.
Philippines: "Whenever we fly in our own territorial waters, we are challenged by the Chinese, challenged because they say we are in their territory, when in fact it is our territory." The contest is afoot.
That seems like a thinly manned trench line: "Russia has approximately 200,000 troops along a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) battle line[.]" That's 200 combat, combat support, and combat service support troops per kilometer--assuming all are on the line. Which they shouldn't be. If the Ukrainians can punch through the defenses and break through without experiencing what the Russians experienced in their initial parade ground plunge into Ukraine, Ukraine might get the Russians running.
I call it a sign of hope that the Pentagon is resisting a full witch hunt when it knows that witches aren't running amok in the ranks as their civilian bosses claim.
Observation (tip to Instapundit): "Global warming hysteria is politics or religion, not science. This conclusion follows from the fact that the global warming models have generated many predictions that turned out to be wrong. A single wrong prediction is enough to disprove a model. Numerous, consistently repeated failures mean that the model is a joke." Well, yeah. Now go and emit no more.
Be afraid: "The U.S. Air Force on May 2 released rare images of the weapon, the GBU-57, known as the 'Massive Ordnance Penetrator.' Then it took the photos down[.]" In theory, Iran's peaceful nuclear energy research infrastructure is the target of this information operation. But Putin "knows" it is directed at him in his deepest lair, should he use nukes.
I think Russia is worried about the consequences of using nuclear weapons. But I think Russia would love to engineer an "accident" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant under Russian control. Would a release of radioactivity essentially create at least a wide temporary zone that shields Russia's troops from a counteroffensive?
I keep saying that the heavy lifting for Ukraine's counteroffensive will be the old Soviet equipment rather than the new Western equipment still flowing in. And I think that Soviet stuff will be the first wave. I'd rather save the Western stuff for the exploitation of a breakthrough. And also, I wouldn't want to telegraph the counteroffensive with Western-equipped brigades hitting the line. Unless that's how the Russians will be diverted from the main effort, of course.
I keep hearing about how China is running rings around America in the Third World: "A dozen poor countries are facing economic instability and even collapse under the weight of hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign loans, much of them from the world’s biggest and most unforgiving government lender, China." Is this a debt trap for borrowers or a credit trap for China? How many indebted people love bill collectors when they come calling? Exit question: Is Pakistan enjoying their new Chinese friends after screwing America in Afghanistan and alienating us? Tip to Instapundit.
I don't think getting rid of HR and DEI staff is gutting "generalists" in companies. I think this trend--if it is one--is getting rid of very focused Red Guards that hinder rather than promote a successful business culture. Honestly, are you really going to take advice from a "chief people and culture officer"? Tip to Instapundit.
Exciting new discoveries from powerful Scamming Ewoketron Microsopes! Tip to Instapundit.
Biden is pushing Israeli-Saudi normalization of relations: "In return for normalization, Riyadh is reportedly seeking to take the
US-Saudi security partnership to the next level — access to the most
advanced weapons systems (on a par with Israel), a defense treaty and a
US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement." Wow. The Abraham Accord is not dead? Big if true. And also, as I wrote about the Saudi so-called defection to China, the Saudis just want America to take their security concerns seriously. I won't say I necessarily agree with the full Saudi goals. But they have some points.
The European Union has entered the fray in the Caucasus: "Time will tell how the conflict will end. But for now, there appears to be progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan with assistance from leadership in the EU." Just remember, the EU has no particular interest in ending the conflict. The proto-imperial EU really wants the political authority to be the actor leading negotiations in order to cut that troublesome prefix.
The Israel-Iran Quasi War rages inside Syria: "Israel's defense minister Monday said that Israel's new government has greatly increased the number of strikes on Iranian targets since taking office late last year."
Russian fortifications. The fortifications in western Crimea are fascinating. Just what do the Russians think the Ukrainians can do?
Yeah, the Ukrainians may have pulled off a 1943 Kursk-style defense that bled the Russians: "Russian forces proudly claimed over the weekend to have captured the battered eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the site of the longest and bloodiest battle of the war, but the cost Russia paid at the expense of its troops undermines its claims of victory." Of course, released convicts, artillery ammunition, and gun barrels paid most of the price instead of the cream of their tank force as the Germans paid in 1943.
"Subway rider?" "NYC subway rider choked to death is mourned at Manhattan church[.]" Note how the media minimizes the threat of a "predatory crazy man" with that description. Poor random guy riding the subway killed--not that he died because other subway riders defended his potential victims. Bias? What bias?
Yeah: "A new survey of about 1,000 veterans found no evidence that the
population harbors more extreme beliefs than the rest of the American
public[.]" About that witch hunt, as we observe Memorial Day this week:
The Russian air force ordered their Su-25s to be updated. Also, a review of the A-10.
Ukrainian special forces may still be operating in Bakhmut, giving Ukraine a flimsy reason to say Russia doesn't have 100% control of the city.
Ominous? "Members of the U.S. Senate were recently offered satellite phones that will allow them to communicate in the case of a “man-made” or natural disaster, according to a report." Half accepted the phones. If I have to choose between presciently anticipating a phone disruption or the company providing the phones having political connections, I'll go with the latter. Tip to Instapundit.
Even if you can find studies showing this to happen, I am not persuaded: "In the United States, giving aid and comfort to the enemy is a serious offense, but America’s armed drone program, while it kills a lot of bad guys, also helps generate new recruits to replace them." This line of argument keeps popping up since 9/11. Why am I not persuaded? Because what the Hell doesn't set off the Islamist nutballs? But most narrowly, I admit fighting back angers jihadis. And that killing jihadis isn't enough. But killing them is absolutely necessary to defeat them.
Six years out of action: "USS George Washington (CVN-73) has left HIII’s Newport News Shipbuilding for sea trials after almost six years at the shipyard undergoing a mid-life refueling and overhaul, USNI News has learned." As I've said, a mission kill is as good as sinking a carrier for any likely war duration.
If it keeps those who remain "special" I have no problem cutting 10-20% of the total Special Operations Command, which includes a lot more than the elite operators. If keeping numbers reduces the quality, we will be lulled into thinking we have quality because the numbers remain the same.
I've been warning about this repeatedly:
She's the Rasputin of American politics.
A number of stories hype the value of Russian fortifications. Even if good--and they may be poorly sited and constructed, for all I know--will Russians resolutely defend them? I recall post-Desert Storm commentary on the good Iraqi fortifications in Kuwait. An American officer commented that he was glad they weren't defended by North Vietnamese soldiers.
And now for something completely different from Hollywood, a gender-reversed re-boot:
Hard for me to judge: "The Israeli government’s national security adviser on Tuesday said a new nuclear facility being built by Iran would not be immune from attack, despite assessments by experts it will be beyond the reach of last-ditch U.S. bunker-busting bombs." I have no doubt the Israelis are thinking outside the box--even for deeply buried boxes.
I never mocked or dismissed the value of old tanks for infantry support. Also, the T80BV is not an old tank. But at least the Russians aren't using those "radical new tactics" perfected in Syria for tanks!
Funny, I blocked out the memory of pledging to vote for Trump in 2016. By the time the election arrived I didn't think Hillary! could be stopped, and couldn't bring myself to vote for Trump. I did in 2020 despite thinking he'd lose.
Sure, just like Putin would welcome a ceasefire with Ukraine right about now. Tip to Instapundit.
Okay: "To be led by seven different member states, the 11 new projects will boost Europe’s ability to wage a high-intensity war, said European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who claimed over 50 PESCO efforts are due to reach 'delivery phase' by 2025." As long as it actually supports NATO and isn't a step toward EU "strategic autonomy."
The B-1 will be able to externally carry hypersonic missiles or many more conventional bombs. When every sortie counts.
Lot's of cheap, low-flying drones is the Army is bringing back old-fashioned anti-aircraft gun capabilities. Will Navy ships bristle with these again, too?
Um, isn't that obviously an Air Force responsibility?
The Russian navy quickly shrank to irrelevance in Putin's invasion of Ukraine: "While some might wonder just how much Russia can rebuild its Navy following the war with Ukraine, the Russian Navy was not much of a threat to begin with." Yes, rebuild it. Let the fleet flow through you!
DeSantis to announce presidential candidacy. And now for something completely different standard operating procedure for Democrats:
Bravo. Really. Bravo. Tip to Instapundit.
A decision to fight for a city is a decision to destroy it. So, yes--but no rules will reduce that reality.
A-10: "A U.S. attack aircraft known for close air support in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is seeing action in maritime patrols amid recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran, according to the Navy." Sending the A-10 to the Navy is the latest Air Force plan to get rid of the plane (and mission) it hates.
Russia's photographic evidence of repelling the Belgorod raiders looks staged. Not that I doubt the Russians reclaimed their territory. But the evidence seems sad. They scooped out a trench, carefully placed a couple Humvees in it, and scattered some random tree debris:
Russia does have a "lost and found" bin, if needed.
Yeah, in the long run I tend to be optimistic about even illegal immigrants. But in the short run this is a problem. Both of direct effects and the bizarre refusal of one major political party that values politics over rule of law to defend our borders. Controlling the border would blend long-term optimism with short-term problem avoidance. Add in affordable (in market price--not taxpayer subsidized) housing, energy, and water, and California can be made great again. Tip to Instapundit.
It's bad enough it's a missile magnet: "Much of the United States territory island of Guam was in the dark as Typhoon Mawar struck its more than 150,000 American citizens directly Wednesday night local time." I wonder how China's artificial islands in the South China Sea would fare from such a hit?
Theater Sustainment Command: "The Europe-based unit in charge of shipping weapons to Ukraine has sped up deliveries by 30 percent compared to the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion last year[.]" Fortunately the work to do this started a while ago in reaction to Russia's first invasion of Ukraine.
They're nuts, to be sure. But they're not suicidal! "It’s impossible not to bring up the fact that an LGBTQ+ group that was devoted to mocking Islam wouldn’t be getting an invitation to Pride Night. They don’t exist, of course, because none of the progressive freak flag-flying fringe groups are as brave as the media would have us believe."
It's reassuring to hear that China recognizes its military limitations: "There is an interesting tendency to overestimate potential offensive powers over those with a strong defensive base. Russia in Ukraine is a case in point, but so is China, where an attack on Taiwan has been imminent for years. Russia did not recognize its position, but China does." But does China recognize that?
Exhibit X for why I don't trust--and now actively despise--much of American news media. Via Instapundit.
How green is your war on an eco-system? An on indigenous culture? On a natural carbon sink? And on real people? Well, you have to break some eggs to save the planet, right? Tip to Instapundit.
How our media--not the police or dwindling racism--is the real source of modern American racial divisions. What would an enemy do differently to weaken America? Via Instapundit.
Russia effed up: "Special forces are highly-trained troops reserved for high-value missions. But using them as assault infantry? That's a wasteful way to use a scarce and precious resource." I mentioned this.
In 2020, China waged economic war on Australia to get it to submit. China failed: "Australia is now emerging from three years of Chinese bullying in remarkably good shape." China thought it had the power to prevail. Can other nations learn lessons from Australia's successful resistance?
Obviously a South Asian neo-Nazi insurrectionist who attacked the White House gets charges downgraded. Or maybe the FBI infiltrated this one-man attack five months ago, and so prosecution is problematic. Tip to Instapundit.
ISW's review of the long battle for Bakhmut.
What's up with Prigozhin? "Prigozhin’s somewhat subtle and purposefully obscure threats of violence represent an inflection in his longstanding feuds with the Russian military establishment and select elite figures." I don't pretend to understand Russia'a internal political situation. But does Prigozhin have powerful allies in the government? Is he suicidal? Crazy? Or just in possession of big, clanking balls?
Robots versus jihadis--at sea. Do jihadis get the virgins in Paradise if an AI toaster frieps them?
The problem is that anything on Taiwan must be protected to keep the Chinese from destroying the weapons before they can be issued to troops: "The[House committee's] 10 recommendations [to deter China from attacking Taiwan] include establishing a war reserve stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, prioritizing weapons delivery for Taipei and authorizing multiyear munitions procurement contracts."
Ukraine may not be using F-16s in this war: "'It’s not about delivery just now,' said retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe. 'Ukraine is going to need an air force to defend itself because Russia will be back.'" If we'd acted back then they might be fighting now.
War is being waged: "A Chinese government espionage group has hacked into critical infrastructure in multiple locations, including the island territory of Guam[.]" A shaping operation. But disrupting communications would be useful at H-Hour.
Stories like this saying "default" would have a "catastrophic" effect on veterans are scare tactics that don't reflect what failing to raise the debt ceiling means. It's not an automatic disaster. If America can't borrow more money it means America must prioritize what it spends money on--you know, what it should be doing. We can pay our actual debts to avoid default. And we can pay to take care of veterans before we subsidize wealthy electric vehicle buyers and other green initiatives, for example. And if the administration chooses to pay the latter at the expense of veterans, the catastrophe is all on the administration. The worst only happens if the government engineers the worst to score political points.
Via Instapundit, two senators reintroduced legislation to "create a federal agency specifically empowered to regulate the internet, including online speech." I used to respect Democrats for their commitment to free speech and blue collar workers. I may have disagreed with means, but their intent was good. What is left to admire about the party today?
Russians may not support the invasion of Ukraine as much as we think. Sure. But fear of the government keeps them quiet. Only battlefield defeat will motivate opponents of sending their men to die in a losing war to take action. There was no revolution in 1945 despite eye-watering Russian casualties in the previous four years. But if defeats can't be hidden? Think 1905. Or 1917. That's when the West can offer Putin a negotiated "off ramp" to securely withdraw from Ukraine to deal with actual or potential civil unrest at home.
Macron struggles to reconnect with France. No doubt. Macron has been using France as a stepping stone for higher ambitions by connecting with the people he really values. But that platform is shaky now.
My school district got screwed by their religious faith. On the bright side, non-working electric school buses emit nothing! On the stupid side, the district wants even more electric buses. Now go and emit no more. Tip to Instapundit.
This seems like a reasonable Indian foreign policy: "engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia." Can India maneuver between these forces? Clearly, managing China is the key. Without that success, engaging America without seeking active help is hard. Cultivating Europe gets tricky depending on whether or not Europe values trade with China over India when push comes to shove. And Russia might not be able to arm India if China demands its vassal cut off India.
I keep reading that because Russia has three times the population of Ukraine that Russia can just keep throwing men at Ukraine until Ukraine is overwhelmed. This is not true. First of all, it assumes Ukraine can't get a 3:1 casualty ratio. So far I don't think Ukraine has done that. But one big encirclement could achieve that with surrenders. But more to the point, people are not widgets to be expended. They are people with other people who love them. And who might not like being treated as expendable widgets. As I explained, Iran had a 3:1 edge in people over Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. And had a big edge in fanaticism. But despite losing "only" twice as many troops as Iraq, Iran's troops stopped being willing to be part of human wave attacks.
France is reacting to Russia's threat to Europe by *checks notes* preparing for threats around the globe. France will not increase its land forces. It will have two divisions of 3 large brigades each. So, yeah: "Le Président’s grand design is boosting defence spending on space, cyber and oceans, while living for several years with less not more of the hardware and ordnance currently deciding the fate of Europe’s Eastern flank."
An American base in Turkey: "Referred to by the military as Site K, it has a high-powered radar that is key to NATO’s missile defense architecture, which also involves U.S. Navy missile defense missions based out of Romania and Spain." Romania has land-based Navy anti-missile missiles. Spain is where six American destroyers with anti-missile missiles are based. Well, I think four are, but now Spain will allow six.
Reusable space vehicles get better. The cost of getting into space keeps going down.
From conspiracy to regulatory framework. And now for something completely different:
Mali's bet on Wagner isn't working out. As if securing Mali is Wagner's objective in Mali!
Long Covid hits 10% of Omicron cases in the U.S. I wonder if this is common for all similar viruses. But only post-Covid has gotten the attention. And what about other countries?
Huh, I ran across an old post from back when Ukraine's army was still shaken from the anti-Russian revolution. I speculated about how Ukraine could resist a Russian invasion. Considering the situation at the time, I think it holds up pretty well.
Enemies of the state. And law enforcement isn't the only weapon to attack such enemies. We need tar and feathers to reverse weaponization of our institutions. But I'd settle for prison time. Saving our democracy and rule of law requires it. Tips to Instapundit.
One way the left gets its policies enforced is by filing suit "against" a federal government fully on the plaintiff's side. The government then settles the suit with an agreement that pays money and/or implements policies that the government-plaintiff cabal wants. I think Congress should require all such agreements to take the form of a bill that then has to be debated, passed, and signed by the president to become law. I don't like bypassing and undermining the legislative process. But this won't happen until conservative plaintiff's follow the odious trail set by the left.
Finally a limit on legalized government theft of property? Tip to Instapundit.
Russia is making Ukraine's case for F-16s to attack the planes dropping the bombs: "The Russian military has resorted to dropping massive Soviet-era bombs in an effort to circumvent Ukrainian air defenses that have proven more than a match for long range missiles and drones." Tip to Instapundit.
Has the British civil servant "blob" won?
Yes, Minister.
With America visibly standing with it, the Philippines is looking for regional allies: "In particular, Vietnam has emerged as a pivotal player in the Philippines’ emerging regional strategy to constrain and roll back China’s ambitions in the hotly contested and geostrategically crucial maritime area."
Eager to be subjects of the proto-empire: "Left-wing Europhiles are already strategising the means by which a
Labour government might take Britain back into the EU. They talk of
using a first term to blame all of Britain’s ills on Brexit, softening
up the public for what is to come, then using a second term to begin the
process of rejoining." I've already noticed the blaming of everything bad on Brexit. Perhaps Britain will need a bureaucratic War of 1812 to finally convince the empire to stay away and make the best of their former territory's independence.
Don't worry about Russia putting nukes in Belarus. It adds nothing to Russia's nuclear ability. It's mostly bluster to frighten the West into letting Russia defeat Ukraine. At best for Russia, the move deters a NATO invasion of Belarus. Which was highly unlikely anyway. At worst, if Belarus revolts against Russian domination, Belarus will have a nuclear arsenal of its own to deter Russia. Belarus would not make the same mistake former Soviet states like Ukraine made when they gave up Soviet nukes for Russian promises to leave them alone.
Ukraine apparently attacked Russian amphibious ships in the port of Berdiansk, on the Sea of Azov.
Target: "Vietnam on Thursday accused a Chinese survey vessel and its escorts of violating its sovereignty, and demanded that Beijing remove the ships from its waters."
The Times of London ended my email access to their site. I signed up for it a quarter century ago when the Internet was still fairly young. At some point I forgot about it. Then when I wanted to read a paywalled article I somehow remembered my password after figuring out the correct email to use. So I started using it occasionally when I'd see a link on the Real Clear sites to an article of interest. No more. It seems like a final nail in the coffin for the end of an era.
This is not how rule of law works. Not even close: "We now have multiple whistleblowers alleging interference from the Justice Department to slow-walk investigations or shield the president’s son." Can't have "the Big Guy" getting caught as collateral damage, eh? And it is the flip side of why I knew Trump hadn't cheated on his taxes as Democrats constantly claimed. Who believes the IRS wouldn't have either nailed him for it or leaked the information to a friendly media if he had? Tip to Instapundit.
I wasn't worried about the Taliban using anything complex we left behind: "While the Taliban has shown it can make use of helicopters and some
leftover planes in response to humanitarian disasters or for show, it is
seen as being far from re-creating a functional air force capable of
securing the skies in the event of foreign incursions or domestic
insurgencies." And not much captured was terribly complex. Not that I'm happy with our own-goal defeat there.
Russian ground forces are being stretched by the need to replace Wagner forces on the Bakhmut front and Ukraine's perceived threats to the Russia-Ukraine border.
Is the European Union serious about defense capabilities since Russia re-invaded Ukraine in 2022? Seemingly. But there's a catch: "This will certainly require a clearer understanding of the EU’s and its member states’ joint goals, the division of labor with NATO, and a stronger EU-level coordination in terms of procurement and defense industrial cooperation." I don't think the EU accepts a division of labor. I think the EU wants to destroy NATO in order to eject America from Europe. But I admit I'm biased.
The right stuff. Tip to Instapundit.
Biden's EPA is waging war on a robust electric network. Is this going to be a brownout (and blackout) summer across America? If this is deliberate, officials should go to prison and their bosses, too. If incompetence, officials should be fired and their bosses thrown out of office. It's a cabal of hateful morons. They seemingly believe that America is so robust that no amount of this faith-based nonsense is too much for America to absorb and continue on. It has been true for decades. But the margin of morons has gotten pretty thin. Now go and emit no more.
The North Korean military has many substitutes for victory: "There are many reasons why the Inmun Gun (North Korean
armed forces), despite its large size (about a million troops) is
considered ineffective. One of the least talked about (in the media)
problem is the growing use of bribes within the North Korean armed
forces. ... The North Korean armed forces has lots of other, and older, problems. " Don't think our military is immune to losing focus. I mean, when the vice president essentially tells West Point cadets to shrug off that whole Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle and to keep their eyes on climate change, we're truly effed, aren't we?
The EU loyalists in Britain are a persistent lot: "Apparently, it is fine to trumpet when 'Brexit Britain' is doing badly, but unacceptable to point out when other major economies are faring worse."
Will Sultan Erdogan win? "Voters in Turkey returned to the polls Sunday to decide whether the country’s longtime leader stretches his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade, or is unseated by a challenger who has promised to restore a more democratic society."
Nigeria, where there are mounting deaths in "continuing clashes between nomadic cattle herders and farming communities in northwest and central regions of the West African nation, including more than 100 this month in Plateau state." The article mentions that the herders are largely Moslem and farmers largely Christian. But fails to note that the herders are the aggressors. Also, the fight hasn't recently become sectarian. It's long been that way. It's ugly.
