Is Putin really going to throw resources at reviving a Russian blue water navy even as his ground forces and air force impale themselves on NATO-backed Ukraine? Is it possible that Putin running into a brick wall in Ukraine has pushed him to abandon hopes of expanding his empire in the west in favor of defending it in the east?
Russia will need more shipyards to carry out Putin's ambitious maritime doctrine.
Russia’s new maritime doctrine signals its intent to challenge the United States and allies on the seas, but there is skepticism about the country’s ability to build a fleet capable of doing that given its limited options for shipyards and weakened supply chains, according to analysts.
Front and center of the new document, published July 31, is the Kremlin’s declaration that the US and NATO are among the “main challenges and threats to national security and sustainable development of the Russian Federation” with respect to the seas. It also indicates Russia will refocus its priorities from the Northern Fleet and North Atlantic to its Pacific Fleet, said Troy Bouffard, director of the Center for Arctic Security and Resilience at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Good. Let the naval force flow through you!
Otherwise, Russia has long borders on the Arctic Sea, in the west, in the Caucasus, in Central Asia, and in the Far East that need defending with ground and/or air power.
I think we should be happy if Russia builds new aircraft carriers. I salivate at the thought of the army and air force investments that would not be made to put those missile magnets to sea.
Of course, if Russia finally ends its pointless hostility toward the West and instead pivots to face the threats from China, never mind.
If Russia is serious about being a threat to NATO, I welcome Russia's decision to expand its navy.
Still, the idea that America and NATO are the main threats while Russia's Pacific fleet is to be the priority for renewal in this maritime revival is odd, no? If NATO is such a threat as Russia loudly proclaims, how does Russia dare expose its western coasts to NATO attack?
And does Russia really think it can run the gauntlet of the Japanese navy and air force to reach the Pacific? Throw in the South Koreans, too, plus American power standing in the way.
Sure, you could say the Russia wants to fight at the side of China's naval power in a joint war. But is Russia so much of a Chinese vassal that it will die on China's orders? The story does hint at this problem by noting that Russia seeks to "challenge and compete" with America and other Asian naval powers--including China.
What if Russia's weaknesses exposed in Ukraine have given China second thoughts about confronting the West over Taiwan? What if China has decided Russia is the easier target? What if Russia really worries about Chinese naval power despite the supposed closeness of these so-called allies?
What if the Russians figure the last time they needed to move their western naval power east it ended in disaster? What if Russia wants the Pacific Fleet ready for war from day one to avoid defeat by China. If so, naturally the Northern Fleet is downgraded.
And perhaps the shipbuilding problems highlighted are a red herring designed to hide the fact that Russia is building up ships to defend its Far East coasts from China and not preparing to build a blue water fleet to fight past Japan and into the Pacific to battle America.
Is this the last gasp of Russia pretending that NATO is the main threat while appeasing China? I'm relying on a lot of speculation, I know. And it wouldn't be the first time Putin has confounded my attempts to assess what "makes sense" for Russia to do to defend its interests. But if I'm close to correct, time is running out for Russia to make that pivot to Asia.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
