Russia's advances have been small despite the appearance of attacks along the front. Is this the end of Russia's offensive capabilities or just a screen to shield preparations to renew the offensive?
The war has seemed to be in stalemate since June. Although Russia has taken significant amounts of Ukraine since invading, even as its offensives have slowed to a crawl. Is it destined to be a "frozen" conflict?
Russia has been unable to gain significant ground with broad but small attacks in the Donbas and scattered attacks in the south. While repeated reports that Russia's offensive is about to culminate--or reach the point when they don't have the strength to continue until reinforced--don't seem to have happened yet, that assessment is complicated.
Russia has responded to reduced combat power by reducing their offensive from the entire front to the Donbas, and then to just the Luhansk front, and now to broader but small attacks that can't make more than tactical gains. Offensive culmination has been delayed by reducing the scope of attacks. Which has reduced the ability of Russian attacks to achieve anything significant. Is even that reaching its limit or will Russia reinforce to continue attacks at some level just to have the illusion of the initiative?
On that question, did Russia's spring draft fail? If so, how weak are Russia's maneuver companies on the line? And can they recover? New paper manpower expansion may just ... paper over the losses.
On the other side, Ukraine has hurt Russian forces and supply lines but has yet to unleash the long-telegraphed counteroffensive.
The war's outcome is still mostly on the knife's edge, although I think it has tilted, however slightly, toward Ukraine in recent weeks. So it could still go either way depending on what Russia and Ukraine (and its mostly NATO backers) do going forward.
For the next few months I'll still give Ukraine the advantage in being able to generate combat power to change the territorial stalemate. But I don't really know if Ukraine has the power to attack in strength or if Russia has ground forces willing to hold what it has taken.
And if Ukraine can't exploit Russia's apparent exhaustion, Russia will begin to recover. Sometimes size matters. Then the outcome may hinge on whether the West is willing to continue supporting Ukraine.
UPDATE: Interesting:
Russian troops are being forced back in Kherson and partisan activity is growing. Kherson must be liberated before the Ukrainians can go after Crimea. Russia does not have enough troops to prevent that. The Ukrainians are patient and not attempting a reckless and costly offensive. Time is on their side and, while Ukrainian troops get better, Russian troops get worse.
Time is on Ukraine's side. But for how long will time be on Ukraine's side?
UPDATE: Speak of the Devil counteroffensive:
"Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region," Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne cited southern command spokeswoman Natalya Humenyuk as saying. She confirmed the news minutes later at a briefing.
Although it is all kind of vague.
UPDATE: More rumors and possible news. Via Instapundit.
UPDATE (Tuesday): The Ukrainian counteroffensive is real enough for ISW to start a separate section on the Kherson counteroffensive starting with this daily assessment.
UPDATE: Possible invasion results. I'm torn between Ukraine taking Kherson, and leaping the Dniepr River if Russian defenders are in chaos to head toward Crimea before turning toward Melitopol; or a Ukrainian offensive that stops at the river to establish a solid defensive line, switching to an offensive from Zaporizhzhia straight south to Melitopol.
UPDATE (Friday): America helped Ukraine wargame possible counteroffensive scenarios:
In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.
I'm a little shocked that the Ukrainians needed to be reminded to focus their efforts.
UPDATE: Russian units are fighting and not collapsing:
Ukrainian army units pushing toward Kherson in the south are retaking ground held for months by Russia’s invading troops amid extremely fierce fighting, according to Ukrainian soldiers taking part in the offensive.
Russian soldiers seemed well-equipped and were putting up stiff resistance, the Ukrainians said.
But Ukraine's counteroffensive isn't taking much ground yet. Hopefully by intent.
NOTE: ISW updates are available here.
