I laugh at the idea that Putin has more territorial ambitions--right now--given his "difficulties" in Ukraine. But yeah, Putin wants more of Russia's former empire back in its control.
Kazakhstan has been a loyal Russian ally. But has rejected Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Is Putin already thinking about "restoring" Kazakhstan to the Russian empire?
Against this backdrop, it’s not surprising that a hastily deleted post by former president—and now deputy chair of the Security Council—Dmitry Medvedev suggesting that after Ukraine, Moscow might turn its attention to the fate of northern Kazakhstan, was taken at face value by many people. But could Russia really enter into conflict with another of its neighbors?
Alienating one of the few countries willing to be associated with Russia post-Ukraine is fairly astounding as an isolated issue. And Russia's military would have problems taking over Kazakhstan even without the beating it has endured in Ukraine.
So it seems unlikely Russia will do much. But if serious, Russia could punish Kazakhstan short of invading even just parts of the country by cutting oil export routes:
By cutting off this key source of income for Kazakhstan, Moscow could also put pressure on the Central Asian state’s main customer, the European Union, demonstrating that a rejection of Russian oil would come with an additional loss for the EU of upwards of a million barrels of Kazakh oil a day.
Yet even if successful in the short run in bringing Kazakhstan to heel over Ukraine, it warns Kazakhstan to end its reliance on Russia's stranglehold on its key export. In the long run, Russia would be forced to invade Kazakhstan to keep it in line.
Would only taking the northern part be enough if the remaining "free" Kazakhstan resists? Is Russia ready for a counter-insurgency and garrison along its new line of control?
And if Putin starts to take Kazakhstan but doesn't, that raises new and bigger problems of Central Asian states turning to China for security. The other "stans" will be on notice that they, too, are in Russia's sights if Kazakhstan is targeted.
The idea that Kazakhstan is "next" on Putin's hit list is getting way ahead of things given the bleeding Russia is suffering invading its Ukraine. But yeah, it's on the list. I wonder if Belarus will shoot above even Ukraine on Putin's to-do list by drifting away from Russia's grasp.
NOTE: War coverage continues here.
