The United States is building up its military presence in Poland in response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine since 2014. The 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act that limited NATO deployments in the east in exchange for Russian good behavior is dead.
NATO is reinforcing its eastern front. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was finally too much to bear without reacting. A corps headquarters of up to 800 personnel is the tip of the iceberg:
As part of what’s billed as the biggest overhaul of NATO defenses since the Cold War, the United States is planning a permanent military base in Poland, its first in Eastern Europe. ...
The war in Ukraine has prompted the U.S. to reevaluate its military footprint in Eastern Europe despite a 1997 agreement, the NATO-Russia Founding Act, that ostensibly prohibits permanent U.S. bases in the region.
NATO officials have said that Moscow nullified the act with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its invasion of Ukraine this year. For now, an evolving cooperation within NATO – symbolized by the new base – is central to achieving the alliance’s goal of security, analysts say.
In some ways this is a reward to Poland for its military build up to make Poland a hard target. Poland plans to spend 5% of GDP on defense--well above the current NATO 2% minimum goal.
I've long wanted Army prepositioned equipment stockpiles there:
In addition to maintaining sufficient forces deployed in Europe able to move east to reinforce the eastern European NATO frontline states, we should establish American, British, and German equipment depots for additional heavy brigades in southern Poland. If we can fly in troops to man these forces, in a return of forces to Poland (REFORPOL) concept, we'd enhance deterrence without forward deploying powerful NATO offensive units that would scare the Russians in reality instead of their faux fear of Georgians and Latvians. Those units could swing north or south or stay put once manned and fielded.
So far, counting on a benign Russia that is a strategic partner, we've extended NATO membership east without extending NATO military strength east in any significant fashion. It is time to correct that mistake. Russia has shown they'll strike at gaps in our defenses. Fill those gaps.
With air defenses and engineering assets to help receive and deploy those units once the personnel arrive from America. And logistics support to sustain a much bigger force there.
And other NATO forces should be heading to the Poland-Lithuania region to hold the Suwalki Gap and defend the Polish border with Russian-occupied/dominated Belarus.
God forbid the Russians take Ukraine and extend the NATO Polish ground front along the Ukrainian frontier, and then all the way to the Black Sea.
Russia's Kaliningrad should be an early NATO target for offensive operations if Russia starts a war.
And NATO forces operating from Poland can move north into Lithuania to hold it; and eventually to Latvia and Estonia to drive Russian troops out.
I worry about putting too much in Estonia and Latvia before a war trying to hold them. Russia is capable of better performance than it showed in the early weeks of its invasion of Ukraine when it assumed no resistance.
Luckily, adding Finland and Sweden to NATO makes it much easier for NATO to support Estonia and Latvia from the sea.
Diplomatically, NATO along with the EU need to pry Belarus away from Russian dominance to keep Russian forces away from the key Suwalki Gap.
Note, too, that a free Ukraine means NATO frontage in Poland is much shorter by securing the southern part of Poland's eastern border. Let's not lose that.
The Russians killed the 1997 act in 2008. But NATO didn't want to admit it fully until this year by making Poland the clear main bastion.
NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.
