Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a wake-up call for NATO. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia vastly increased the threat to NATO by absorbing Belarus. Defeating Russia in Ukraine reduces and delays that threat.
NATO is reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Using Belarus as a staging ground to invade Ukraine telegraphs Russia's ability to use Belarus to invade Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland:
Thus, Russia is using the territory of Belarus and its infrastructure for ground, air and missile attacks on Ukraine. Should it establish a continuous military presence in Belarus as a consequence of the present war, Russia could then directly threaten NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia from Belarus. The Kremlin has compelled Belarus to reluctantly forfeit its role as peaceful buffer between Russia and Europe. It has, instead, turned an unwilling Belarus into a Russian military outpost, potential staging ground for offensive operations in several directions.
NATO’s looming loss of the Belarusian buffer, after decades of sheltering behind it, would become a momentous strategic reverse for the Alliance. The Strategic Concept mentions this problem in passing, on a list of “challenges”: “Moscow’s military buildup, including in the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean sea regions, along with its military integration with Belarus, challenge our security and interests.“ Placing Belarus alongside other key theaters on this list amounts to acknowledging the magnitude of this particular challenge. NATO has, at this summit, approved a significant increase to its forces deployed in, or pre-assigned to, the Baltic States and Poland (see EDM, July 6).
You may recall that Russia carried out an anschluss with Belarus not that long before it starting massing troops to invade Ukraine.
That development is the main threat to NATO. Which is why Finland and Sweden joining NATO--after NATO accepts their applications--in response to Russian aggression is a big deal. Those countries make Russian operations in the Baltic Sea suicide missions. And greatly increases NATO's ability to support Estonia and Latvia especially if Russia invades them.
Ukraine in Russian hands expands Russia's threats to NATO across the entire eastern front. And defeating Russia in Ukraine forestalls that threat to southeast NATO; and mauls and occupies the attention of the Russian military for another generation at least, buying time for NATO to prepare in the northeast.
If any place should have a "color revolution" it is Belarus. Would a Russian defeat in Ukraine inspire the people and security apparatus in Belarus to act to avoid collateral damage from that event?
NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.
