Sunday, August 07, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

South Korea enters space. This is part of the effort to build the firepower to knock out North Korean artillery threatening Seoul. I have my doubts about that plan.

The U.S. is trying to help Russians bypass Russian censorship of news about Putin's invasion of Ukraine. There is great need.

The U.S. moved military assets "closer" to Taiwan for Pelosi's visit; China announced military exercises near Taiwan (for Pelosi's visit).

So the Russians slaughtered some Ukrainian POWs. Such nice people.

The first ship with Ukrainian grain set sail under the grain truce. Will Russia undermine this? perhaps placing naval mines to blame on Ukraine?

Threats of street violence in Iraq over political deadlock and Iranian influence.

Germany's foreign policy is in flux. Russia is clearly a threat. Yet Germany has a troubling early 20th century history. My view is that the EU needs Germany if the proto-imperial EU is to remove the prefix. Yet to avoid being the EU's oxen, Germany needs to remain in America-dominated NATO. Which also allows Germany to avoid rearming so much that the Germans get a whiff of panzers--and like it (their view). Which means Germany can't really embrace the EU. What will the Germans do?

Awarding the Global War on Terrorism medal will be scaled back "sharply".

The Army will thin out its 31 brigades in the hope that recruiting shortfalls are a transitory problem.

I assume American military facilities on Crete will be more important going forward.

Ukraine is hitting Russian air defenses with HIMARS, which will help Ukraine if America provides F-16s. I wish our Air Force appreciated that artillery role.

Meanwhile in Kosovo. I wonder if Russia is stirring things up there.

Russia will be hurt by denying energy to Europe because other countries drive hard bargains to buy it.

There is a lot of talk about Ukraine's Kherson counteroffensive--but little movement on the ground. Where are the Ukrainian troops for a counteroffensive? Too early to see that evidence? Or is this a diversion? I'm flummoxed given I've long thought Kherson was a key front for Ukraine to liberate. Eventually the troops have to retake territory for this to be real.

From the Well, Duh files: "The E.U. does not just face crises. It seems to be defined by them. In a way, it welcomes crises." In a way! LOL. So welcome that solving the crises aren't the priority, eh?

Oh? "[The] Russians have correctly identified Germany as the linchpin and engine of the EU. Hence, they have invested a great deal of resources, time and effort in order to pull Germany from the geopolitical orbit of the US." Hence? Pulling Germany out of NATO--where America dominates--is a requirement to push Germany into full EU engagement--not hinder that. If the Russians actually believe this, they are morons. More likely the author is just shilling for the EU by pretending NATO and the EU are complementary natural allies. They are natural opponents.

Good! "A CIA drone strike has killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri in Afghanistan, according to five people familiar with the matter." Although one good over-the-horizon strike is no way to mow the jihadi grass and recover from our defeat.

Early in the week, Russia was moving troops from the Donbas to hold Kherson and Zaporizhia to the east. What is Ukraine up to? Is the Kherson offensive too late to exploit Russian preoccupation with the Donbas? How is it possible that Ukraine could counter-attack all across the southern front with no main effort? Won't that dissipate combat power the way Russia did in the initial invasion? I'm lost about what Ukraine's target is now. Kherson made sense since forever. Now I'm having small doubts. Although perhaps it really is taking all this time to gather forces for the Kherson counteroffensive. Perhaps it is that simple.

Remember when Democrats and their media allies were upset Trump killed Iranian terror master Soleimani? Biden kills Zawahiri and there is a sound of crickets--plus an explainer of why we did it.

GIGO: rigging the data. Tip to Instapundit.

So ... "Monkeypox" is now a problematic name? I suggest "Sphincterpox". Or perhaps "Uranuspox". You're welcome.

Is it "true" communism yet?

Russia accuses the US of approving Ukrainian HIMARS targets. The spokesmoron has a point. America should let Ukrainians strike any target they want--even inside Russia.

"Closing tax loopholes" is raising taxes. "Loophole" just means something Congress deliberately decided should be taxed less than other things.

The sorry state of Russia's reserve tanks. Also, Ukraine holds that tanks are not in fact the best anti-tank weapons. And by May Russia's ground forces suffered 100,000 casualties! That's killed, wounded, captured, or deserted. The stealth mobilization is trying to put together units with duct tape.

Killing Zawahiri kind of implies America had an interest in staying in Afghanistan to fight terrorists, doesn't it?

One American big deck carrier and a F-35B-equipped amphibious warfare carrier were deployed near Taiwan for Pelosi's visit.

I voted this week. Twice! Well, I messed up the ballot the first time. I was really only interested in voting for the bus system. It's a basic function of government. I was torn between casting a protest vote on the Democratic side or voting for Republicans however meaningless it is at the local level. And I forgot this was a choice and did both. For primary contests. Doh. Never had to re-vote before. Luckily hardly anybody there. Although a hole in the process is that the poll workers could theoretically have seen my spoiled secret ballot as they threw it away.

The idea that Ukrainian ships exporting food need to be inspected for weapons is ridiculous. In what alternate world is Ukraine under attack sending weapons away?

Excellent observation: "'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again,' the adage goes, 'and expecting different results.' How else to describe the effort of France’s President Emmanuel Macron to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by constantly seeking to reengage with Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin?" We might want to ask what Macron is smoking. Deep down the French elites think America is a bigger threat to French glory than Russia is. Maybe not that deep, actually.

Very odd, is it not? We seem to have a deadline for getting humanity off of this planet. Tip to Instapundit.

Corruption makes the Philippines vulnerable to Chinese aggression.

Even as Russia is humiliated on the battlefield, it claims Greater Russia territory beyond Ukraine, including "portions of Poland, the Baltic States, Finland and parts of Alaska." A-holes. A-holes with nukes.

A Fox host was not saying al Qaeda felt good about our killing Zawahiri, as David Edwards' article claims. The Fox host was saying that given where Zawahiri was--right in an upscale part of Kabul--al Qaeda must feel pretty good to be so obviously welcome inside Afghanistan under Taliban rule. Big difference. And journalists wonder why we despise their profession.

Killing Zawahiri was more retribution than prevention? Who the ef cares? He's a terrorist. We killed him. Now he's a good terrorist. This is why God gave us JDAMs (or any precision weapon, of course). Some people give nuance a bad name. There are still many reasons out there for why America has JDAMs.

FFS. These "journalists" actually think they are saving us from "fake news." Tip to Instapundit.

Forces and forms of destabilization of America, European Union countries, Russia, and China.

We may be too stupid to survive as a species. Tip to Treacher.

Via Intapundit, is a Russian hunter-killer satellite stalking an American spy bird? Let's hope the X-37 (now under Space Force) has been even more busy.

How early did humans arrive in the New World? Of course, how sure are the scientists that they have evidence of butchering rather than erosion? Via Instapundit.

Gosh! Why don't Americans trust what these lying a-holes report?

Iran's hand puppets in Iraq may attack Americans in the chaos the Iranians stoke. And have I mentioned I don't trust Moqtada al-Sadr? Heads Iran wins and tails America loses. I'm not happy. Unless I'm way wrong about today's Sadr. We need to defeat Iran in Iraq.

South Korea joins the fighter-building club.

Ukraine's superior logistics support. As long as the West provides it, Russia's GDP advantage over Ukraine is not decisive.

Our fleet is suffering from our mistaken belief that projecting power ashore from safe positions in the littorals rather than sea control in blue waters was its future mission.

Despite Russia's shifting of forces to the southern front, Russia continues to attack in the east--with few positive results.

The United States Senate added America's approval to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. All NATO countries must approve.

Third Fleet as an operational headquarters rather than a supporting organization preparing forces for the western Pacific.

Ukraine continues to strike Russian supply lines to the Kherson front.

The Indonesian, American, and other militaries are exercising together in Indonesia.

I would very much like to recover those oddly missing Pentagon texts from January 6, 2021. There is no way they are gone as a favor to Trump.

Would a military fitness app for civilians increase interest in enlisting?

Our always-on-the-job State Department says the Taliban violated the Doha Agreement by letting Zawahiri live in Kabul. I guess we're letting that whole conquering Afghanistan thing slide. 

Let's worry about helping Ukraine defeat Russia now before we get too caught up working on long-term weapons and logistics issues. Also, perhaps refrain from judging Ukraine's counteroffensive until we see it happen. Cart. Horse.

The idea that Pelosi should not have visited Taiwan rests on the ridiculous notion that Taiwan can survive if it somehow avoids making eye contact with their crazy stalker China. Why are some conservatives taking up what in the past was a liberal way of thinking?

Remember, to keep their lights on and homes heated in the winter the Europeans trusted Greens and Russia. I think sophistication and nuance are overrated.

The Indiana Army National Guard demonstrates what it means for the Guard to be an operational reserve.

Tell me that the continuing baby formula shortage wouldn't have spawned 24/7 "they're killing babies" media coverage if a Republican was president.

Russia may be forming a reserve that may be committed to an offensive or to preempting Ukrainian counter-attacks. Or it could just be a reserve to hold the line.

Democrats and the media to send in bombshell disposal team to keep Joe Biden safe. Tip to Instapundit.

The multi-war in Syria rumbles along. I assume Russia is too busy to try to push Iran out these days. 

The Navy's new SPY-6V1 version of its Aegis surveillance and combat radar.

Sending signals around Taiwan.

Democratic "sanctuary cities": "Give us your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free… Just not, y’know, here."

Can Ukraine mount a counteroffensive on the Kherson front while sustaining serious counter-attacks around Izyum to force a dilemma on Russian force deployment decisions?

This is a useful analysis of the Winter War of 2022 (although I am mystified that the Iraq War can be considered a "debacle"--yet we still must defend the win).

The Dutch farmers have revolted. Never mind looming famine, I guess. Anyone who likes to eat should support them. Tip to Instapundit.

In other news, Hamas will ruin Gaza for the chance to kill a few more Jews

We know Russia didn't start their invasion of Ukraine trying to exhaust their enemies. Can Russia really win a protracted war of attrition now? My view is that Russian boasts are meant to convince the West that Russia isn't in a world of hurt.

So what was his motivation for (allegedly) bombing his own people with a grenade-sized blast?

Russia is desperate to avoid infantry casualties and desperate to avoid letting the public know how many Russian troops have died

Love us. Or we'll kill you.

China cut off certain defense lines of communication with America, following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. That sounds somewhat ominous.

LOL:


Could the Navy defeat a Chinese invasion attempt against Taiwan? Maybe. But the Army might be needed, as I argued in Military Review.

The accusation that Ukraine is fighting behind human shields falls apart when you consider that Russia seeks to kill civilians rather than being deterred from firing by the presence of civilians.

Israel is going after the Iran-backed Islamic Jihad terror group in Gaza.

One problem with returning the abortion issue to the states is that it simply turns national battle lines from the federal government to 50 smaller nationally funded battles in the states. Which isn't quite federalism. But an improvement.

More grain ships leave Ukraine. Did Russia agree to use the shipments as a human shield to protect their Kherson front? Will Russia halt shipments if Ukraine starts to really push a counteroffensive?

Anti-Semitic socialism in France. Who knew socialism at the national level could think that way?

Is this real? Honestly, Kim Jong-Un would be happy if all 100,000 died in Ukraine. Get paid for them and get potential troublemakers and actual mouths to feed killed.

Making the people who back the policy feel a fraction of the pain and expense of the policy is the plan.