It's getting close to 6 months of war and far from grabbing Kiev in days and sweeping through all of Ukraine in a couple weeks, Russia is still struggling to take the Donbas--the heart of Putin's original justification for invading--and is enduring heavy casualties for this conquest.
Russia has been moving forces west from the Donbas front to the southern front for weeks. Rumors of Russian offensive options there have been raised. One result of this repositioning was a Russian platoon-sized attack on the Kherson front. So 30 troop, or so. It didn't work.
It is unclear when or if Ukrainian forces will launch a large-scale ground counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, but they are effectively using Russian preparations for such a counteroffensive to attrit Russian leadership and logistics capabilities.
What Ukraine is doing--including disabling bridges across the Dniepr to hinder Russian logistics--is useful. But it isn't a counteroffensive. The British chief of defense intelligence does not think Ukraine can achieve decisive results in the south this year.
It's difficult for me to challenge that assessment. I certainly think Ukraine needs to achieve a battlefield victory before the winter. And the Kherson front is the best place to achieve it. God help Ukraine in a decade if Russian forces still hold their current positions on the Kherson front after a ceasefire, whether official or not.
Still, while Ukraine has problems with retaking its territory, Russia has problems with an army so smashed up that who knows what it can endure? Putin certainly never thought his army would be in this dangerous position 6 months after he ordered his troops to occupy Ukraine.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Strategypage has a lot of good information here. Including the news that Belarus agreed to send 200 troops to replace Russian troops in Syria. And:
In the south (Kherson province, bordering Crimea) Russia has begun withdrawing troops, but not their heavy weapons across the Dnieper River. Ukraine has used its HIMARs missiles to disable or destroy all four bridges across the Dnieper (Dnipro) river and keep them unusable for anything but pedestrians and light vehicles since the 10th. This denies vital supplies to the twenty thousand Russian troops facing Ukrainian forces. Without fuel or heavy equipment (tanks, IFVs and artillery) replacements the Russian troops cannot attack, or effectively defend against the Ukrainian offensive. Already the Ukrainians are receiving less artillery fire from Russian forces on the right bank of the Dnieper River. There is less activity from Russian armor. If the Ukrainians can keep those bridges disabled, Russia will be forced to withdraw their troops to the left bank of the river, leaving the Ukrainians with a major win. That withdrawal process has begun, with headquarters personnel recently crossing.
This seems awfully significant to have not made the news sources I read or watch.
UPDATE: Ah, more news on this issue of Russia pulling back across the river (The Telegraph YouTube update).
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
