Reports of rowdy Russian volunteers in Russian towns after their training hours may indicate "Russian military authorities are unwilling to discipline these new recruits, lured into service at great cost and effort. Indiscipline and de facto immunity from discipline during training will very likely translate into a poorly trained and entitled volunteer force that is used to committing crimes and getting away with it."
Killing Zawahiri was good, but with "the Taliban’s continuing close relationship with Al Qaeda and the
deterioration of Afghanistan into a terrorist sanctuary, the United
States needs to rethink its counterterrorism strategy." No! Way!
I'm sure leaving billions in weaponry there won't be a problem.
Well yes, China is preparing for war. The pace has been astounding. But so do we. So do others to some extent. The question is will China actually start a war any time soon. I just don't know. And if so, who is the target? Will it use the threat to bully victims into submission? Or will China be trapped into war between its own rhetoric and the people's engineered rage?
Left wing Democrats and their media allies have taken the demonization and "othering" of Republicans to dangerous levels. It's a 24/7 2-minute hate. Differences of opinions are now evil. Truly, it is a crime against language to think "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded." Tip to Instapundit.
Determined to lose again: "The Administration has dropped one crucial demand after another in
pursuit of a [nuclear] deal, any deal with Iran, no matter how crazy or dangerous.
Two of the most egregious retreats occurred in the last few days." Well, unrequited love demands no less.
Erdogan hopes to counter a tanking Turkish economy with success abroad.
Can China blockade Taiwan? Can Taiwan endure and resist? I've long said Taiwan needs more than small "porcupine-style" missile boats to resist China in the Taiwan Strait. Will America and its allies help Taiwan?
I find it odd that America is providing 16 105mm howitzers to Ukraine. Those are small guns with short range. Are they for Ukrainian air mobile assaults to haul some artillery with them as they leap behind Russian lines--perhaps for a river-crossing operation--and are out of range of ground force artillery?
The European Union may have member countries train Ukrainian soldiers in European countries. Why those countries need the EU to take credit for what the countries will do is beyond me. Actually I do know.
Trump should build a home on the U.S.-Mexico border. Biden will send so many armed federal law enforcement agents there that no illegal immigrants will dare cross.
Reviewing the clusterfuck of Biden's Afghanistan skedaddle debacle. The U.S. is paying the Taliban $300,000 per flight to get Americans and Afghan allies out of the country even now. Which is good because what alternative do we have after abandoning our people and allies who fought and died every day to kill Taliban and other jihadis there? Tip to Instapundit.
More on China's push to put security forces in Pakistan to protect Chinese assets. Pakistanis are getting worried about Chinese influence.
The X-37B space plane and China's version.
China is trying to flip Thailand. Last week I wondered why our longstanding ally was exercising with the Chinese military.
The Navy's top surface warfare officer wants 6 LCS operating in the Western Pacific. I agree.
Well I certainly hope America doesn't let Russia know every weapon or system we send to Ukraine.
Did the sacrifice of Sri Lanka by climate change fanatics' Green policies result in the departure of a Chinese signals intelligence ship from a Sri Lankan port?
Only if China's rulers believe economic growth is the most important thing at that moment of deciding whether to go to war to maintain the CCP monopoly on political power: "China’s economic security in a multilateral economic system is still a major guarantor of economic and political security to the rest of the world."
Is it true that the Chinese DF-26 "carrier killer" ballistic missile is an overblown threat that the Navy can handle? Beats me. China is certainly working on succeeding. How are we breaking the kill chain? Even if we can, what about India? Or Russia?
Russia's new naval doctrine is an amazingly delusional caviar ambition for a country with a potato budget. It only makes sense if it simply conceals a Russian pivot to resist China before time runs out.
FFS, is our government so big that it inadvertently undermines American prosperity and security (when it isn't deliberate, of course)? Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's economy was rattled but not shattered by Western sanctions. I suspect that the foundation for that apparent coping is getting thinner and may end that relative success given time. But while useful to harm Russia's war production doesn't seem likely to break Russia.
Uh oh, the Biden administration is pretending that Iran is offering actual concessions to get a new nuclear deal. If Iran is no longer demanding something, Iran has found a way around that problem. While our State Department gets to pretend the concession hurts Iran's nuclear weapons drive. Win-win.
The Syria multi-war is still going on at a much lower level. Can Iran be driven out?
Well, as much as I hoped otherwise, Turkey under Erdogan seems to be doing its best to alienate its NATO treaty allies by helping Russia cope with Western sanctions.
After making the best of a bad MiG-29 inventory, Ukraine would like F-16s: "The air war over Ukraine is a tactical win for Ukraine so far, but that was costly, with 47 fighters or attack aircraft lost. Twenty of these were MiG-29s and four Su-27 fighters plus twelve Su-24 and Su-25 ground attack aircraft. Russia lost four Su-24s, 13 Su-25s, ten Su-34s (successor to the Su-24) and one Su-35 (un upgraded Su-27 fighter)."
Good Lord, the Russians are actually kidnapping Ukrainian children: "Russian government sources confirmed that Russia is bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt them."
Last October I noted Serb tensions with Kosovo. In February I noted that Serbia was arming up; and in April China delivered anti-aircraft missiles to the Serbs. Are the Serbs planning to revive the Kosovo war? Is Russia pushing this to distract NATO? Tip to Instapundit.
The Russians lie with such ease: "Russia's advance has slowed down in Ukraine, but this is a deliberate decision to avoid civilian casualties, according to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu."
Huh: "Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has somewhat surprisingly congratulated the Ukrainian people on their Independence Day."
Yes, wokism with its major Green component is a religion (via Instapundit). What was once called "blasphemy" is now "hate speech" and "denialism." The West isn't becoming less religious. It's just that a lot of people have a fundamentalist and intolerant faith that rejects traditional Christian religions. FFS, these people "speak in tongues" and make no sense. Now go and emit no more.
"Anti-war" groups have a dilemma with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I'd have more respect for them if they were flocking to Ukrainian cities to act as human shields.
Friggin' lasers on destroyers.
China is keeping up military activity around Taiwan long after Pelosi left Taiwan. Is this still pressure or is it preparation?
How did Ukraine attack Crimean bases? I agree that long-range missiles are the likeliest explanation. Either local conversion or imported missiles from someone other than America--which has denied supplying ATACMS. Does Russia have incentive to hide the evidence of such weapons to avoid panic in rear area echelons?
Working on the deterrence calculation variables.
Biden ordered the military to conduct strikes on Iran-backed forces in Syria. Resolve? Hah! This is just a means to get Iran to agree to another American-led financial infusion for Iran. And to get that, all Iran has to do is pretend it won't pursue nukes by agreeing to a toothless deal. And then America can pretend to believe Iran. It's the same negotiating process as before. And the ratification debate will be similar, too.
I understand this is something North Korea works hard to stoke with local fanboys, but still. On August 14, "Seoul was the scene for the largest public demonstration in decades against the U.S. military presence in South Korea." South Korea seems generally solid as an ally. But at some level I worry.
China is still struggling to make advanced combat aircraft. But they've made tremendous progress. Also, the J20 is a stealth plane from the front only.
Russia has ways to alleviate the impact of Western sanctions. Can they be blocked?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is exacerbating divisions between ethnic Estonians and ethnic Russians in Estonia. I've read that the divisions are overstated. But is war changing that? Narva, a city on Russia's border, is 85% ethnic Russians. I worry about what Russia might try there.
Putin claimed he restored Russia's glory and invading Ukraine would reflect that glory. Clearly that rise was a "dead cat bounce" and Russia remains the sick, angry man of Europe.
This piece (tip to Instapundit) essentially discusses what can be called "shaping" operations that Ukraine is conducting in the south prior to an offensive. And I too mentioned advancing to the Dniepr River line and then attacking south from Zaporizhzhia, which if it reaches the Sea of Azov puts Russian troops in a bad position.
I hope Iran has dealt a nuclear deal a fatal blow. But I know Biden will double down on concessions to get a deal. No deal is better. A deal won't stop Iran from going nuclear. But a deal will enrich Iran and allow us to pretend Iran isn't going nuclear.
On paper, the Russian armed forces will be expanded in 2023. On paper. Declaring the puppet forces of Luhansk and Donetsk to be in the Russian army would help a bit. Hell, what's the current strength?
Via Instapundit, indeed: "Racial segregation is back in the US. That old foul practice that most
of us thought had been done away with by the 1964 Civil Rights Act has
been given some politically correct spit-and-polish. Jim Crow’s gone
woke." Some of us have noticed:
A lot of young Russians--300,000 to 3.8 million--have fled Russia because Putin invaded Ukraine. They may not be coming back. Which is kind of funny given Putin feels the need to conquer ethnic Russians/Russian speakers to counter a declining population at home.
Strategypage says that Moqtada al-Sadr is the good guy in the Iraq government-forming drama dragging on over battling corruption. I sure hope so.
Britain announced new military aid to Ukraine. Norway contributed to this. It includes 850 Norwegian-made micro-drones useful for urban combat. Kherson?
The Pentagon warns of Chinese progress in space.
From the Well, Duh files: Israel's prime minister warned the potential Iran nuclear deal won't stop Iran from getting nukes and will enrich Iran.
Belarus riding the Russian tiger.
Approved hate. Tip to Instapundit.
Can the Navy develop "warfighters" who command our surface ships and lead them into battle? I worry.
The Army sees its future rotary aircraft as having a role in INDOPACOM--supporting the Navy, of course. What about having a role in the Army's core competencies in the Asia-Pacific region, as I explored in Military Review?
There will come a time when the American government will need American media to suppress a story for real national security reasons. But the FBI forfeited the trust needed to agree to that in order to protect Joe Biden and his son Hunter, of all people.
I am highly sympathetic to the people who truly don't make enough money to pay off loans for cosmetology or baking degrees. So why not reduce the maximum income to get some loan relief to $40,000? And then remember that the reason those people had to go to school and take out loans is the outrageous state policies of demanding certification for hair braiding, cutting hair, and a growing list of state-licensed professions that require you to take courses to get a license. Do read it all.
I for one welcome Israel killing Islamic Jihad terrorists. Upset leftists can pound sand.
It would be good to correct this problem: "Congress is moving to address the backlog in sending weapons to Taiwan, as well as other potential delays in arms sales to Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand."
Of course we want to minimize civilian casualties when we fight enemies. But I fear the new Civilian Protection Center of Excellence will end up harming the ability to fight in the misguided assumption that civilian casualties will then go down.
For many years, I certainly assumed the retirement of the SR-71 meant Aurora had to exist.
For Ukraine: Equipment to bolt on any pickup truck and make it a guided rocket launcher carrier. I believe these are 2.75" guided rockets that never really hit the big time (because existing American weapons did the job) despite being good.
Good: "Taiwan proposed on Thursday $19 billion in defence spending for next year, a double-digit increase on 2022 that includes funds for new fighter jets[.]" It is long overdue.
Australia is hosting littoral warfare exercises with American Marines and others. Hello, South China Sea.
I'm planning to get "cable" TV back soon after more than two years being away. I miss the sports. But I will not keep my TV on news channels like a radio as I used to do. The left just annoys me too much to put that kind of stress on me any more.
I know Europe is in its worst drought in 500 years. This is very bad. But the one 500 years ago was before the internal combustion engine.
Why are our most left-wing institutions so semi-fascist (or worse)? "Cornell University perpetuates 'settler colonialism, indigenous dispossession, slavery, racism, classism, sexism, transphobia, homophobia, antisemitism, and ableism,' according to a statement posted on its School of Integrative Plant Science’s website." Tip to Instapundit.
Ethiopia's war--now a food blockade, it seems--against its Tigray region continues. Nobody has nukes so it doesn't get much attention. Not even from other African states, it seems.
Australia is hosting "Pitch Black 2022, which includes more than 100 aircraft from 10 nations" in exercises in northern Australia. Closer to China.
The executive summary is that too many of our elites posing as the best and brightest--but really the worst and stupidest--suck at everything but enriching themselves. Tip to Instapundit.
Undermining police protection will push more private security--for those who can afford it. Like I noted:
I find it really interesting that Russia appears to be equipping their rabble volunteer units with good weapons. One, I didn't know Russia had enough to spare. Two, why not send them to the experienced units in combat now? Rabble with expensive weapons leads to dead rabble and burning expensive weapons.
Russia had been putting the burden of dying in its war on non-ethnic Russians. The need for bodies is changing that: "As the onus of partial mobilization shifts to more economically advantaged, densely populated, and better-educated regions of Russia, domestic opposition to recruitment efforts will likely grow."
Cleaning up the unintended and war crime explosives. Apparently, Ukraine has not used landmines. Ukraine signed the landmine treaty ban. Anti-tank mines would have been very useful for Ukraine.
Ukrainian air defenses are going to get an infusion of American and German air defense missiles. They sound great for protecting pontoon bridges across the Dniepr River. But supplying missiles for Ukraine's improved S-300 batteries is still crucial.
